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2016 Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under

By Lyle Graversen

Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 6, 2014; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive lineman Chris Jones (96) attempts to tackle UAB Blazers quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe (16) during the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 6, 2014; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive lineman Chris Jones (96) attempts to tackle UAB Blazers quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe (16) during the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports /

Chris Jones Percentage of Defensive Snaps

Over/Under Line: 40% of defensive snaps

The Chiefs top draft pick from this offseason will certainly be a key part of the defensive line rotation. However, with Kansas City returning Dontari Poe, Jaye Howard, and Allen Bailey just how often will Jones be on the field as a rookie? The Chiefs used a four man rotation most of last year with the snap percentages breaking down as follows:

Dontari Poe 69.8%
Jaye Howard 69.1%
Allen Bailey 53.5%
Mike DeVito 26.9%

I was curious about Jones percentage of snaps in college. I couldn’t find anything online so I reached out on Twitter to Steve Palazzolo who is one of the head guys for Pro Football Focus’s new college football site. He was kind enough to give me Jones percentages for his past two seasons.

2014: 44%
2015: 61%

So the question is just how big of role he’ll play for KC in 2016? The Chiefs obviously lost Mike DeVito, but he played mainly as a run stopper and Jones offers much more pass rush upside. Will Jones just be a situational pass rusher?

Will he be good enough to relegate Allen Bailey to DeVito’s run stopper role and take his snaps on other downs? Will the Chiefs use Jones to reduce the amount of snaps Poe and Howard take? This one is probably the hardest one to guess because we don’t have any track record to base it off of.

My Prediction: Over

While I’m not confident in this one, my gut says that Jones is going to have a good rookie season and make a significant contribution right away. I don’t think he’ll cross the 50% threshold yet (at least not if the other three stay healthy), but I do think his talent will earn him enough playing time to top the 40% snap over/under line.

What do you think, over or under 40% of the defensive snaps for rookie Chris Jones?

Next: Dee Ford Sacks

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