Dec 28, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) reacts after making a sack for a safety during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Did you know that according to FiveThirtyEight, teams who start the season with a win in Week 1 have gone on to make the playoffs 54% of the time? On the flip-side, teams that come up short in their opening game only make it to the postseason 25% of the time.
This tidbit is a perfect example of why I love the NFL – every game is incredibly vital. With only 16 games to claim a playoff spot, no other sport has so much at stake each gameday. That’s why if the Kansas City Chiefs are going to reach their ceiling this regular season (a division title), there is no room for a slow start.
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Our opponent, the Houston Texans, are in a similar situation as the Chiefs heading into this season: they will be led by their defense, lean on the ground game offensively, and start a quarterback who many fans are not sold on. Given these similarities, I’m expecting our Chiefs to be in for a close game that will be decided by a few key matchups.
J.J. Watt vs. The entire Kansas City offensive line
Take the most destructive defensive player in the game today, and put him up against an offensive line that is aiming to be average this season (you know, compared to putrid last season), and you have a pretty obvious key matchup.
SI’s Jenny Vrentas published an article earlier this week on JJ Watt that should make every single Chiefs fan sweat heading into Sunday upon reading it. To summarize, Watt will basically have free reign this season to line up where ever he believes he will be able to make a play. With a line comprised of two tackles who recently switched sides, a rookie center, and a relatively inexperienced right guard, you can bet believes he has a plethora of favorable matchups to choose from..
Let’s be real, the Chiefs aren’t going to outright ‘win’ this matchup. Watt is going to make plays, it’s what elite players do. For me to consider this a win, Watt would finish with no more than two sacks (along with a handful of QB hits and hurries), zero takeaways, and Alex Smith would be able to leave the field without any assistance.
Edge: Texans – If somehow you’re not convinced, check out this video of Watt vs. Fisher from 2013. I must warn you, it is not pretty.
Next: Trusting in Gaines?