Spotrac Predicts Justin Houston’s New Contract With Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs’ season is over which means the Justin Houston Watch has begun.

After not being able to come to agreement with Houston last offseason, the Chiefs now have a little over two months to either figure out a new contract for Houston or designate him as a franchise player. It is believed Houston is aiming for a maximum contract since he’s coming off a rookie deal that was based on him being a third round pick. And if Spotrac is correct, Houston is about to get paid very well after coming off a 22-sack season.

Spotrac broke down the situation this morning in a post and gave their final prediction. Here’s what they came up with.

"Houston has increased productivity in every season, rounding off 2014 with one of the better seasons in NFL history. He’ll be highly sought should he hit the market – but all signs point to the Chiefs doing anything possible to not let that happen. Our base value of $13.665M per season ranks him as the 4th highest average paid defensive end, and the top paid outside lineback in football. When factoring in our prime percentages, our final prediction becomes: 6 years, $92,670,276."

Yeah, that’s some serious cash.

The average annual value would put Houston’s deal around $15.5 million with just under $49 million of the $92.67 million coming to him as guaranteed cash. This would make his total value less than J.J. Watt and Mario Williams, but give hime the second highest true guaranteed money value behind Watt. Seems like a fair deal.

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Should the Chiefs choose to franchise Houston they would be taking on a one-year, $16.5 (estimated) million cap hit. So dealing with this issue now is probably in the best interest of the Chiefs.

Figuring out the Chiefs’ salary cap number is a little difficult because the NFL hasn’t set the actual cap number for the 2015 season. Conservative estimates have the cap number at $140 million – a number the Chiefs are presently over – but some reports suggest the cap could go as high as $150 million. We’ve discussed some of the players who could end up getting the axe from the Chiefs this offseason and those players would open up plenty of room for the Chiefs to add Houston, free agent center Rodney Hudson, and a free agent or two.

Kansas City offered Houston an extension last offseason but Houston balked at the numbers, choosing to play out the rest of his contract and prove his value. I’ll say that risk paid of rather well. John Dorsey must now decide if he wants to pay Houston at his peak value or if he wants to flip Houston for a large package of draft picks.

It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for the Chiefs, and a rich one for Houston.