Dolphins Open Up As Four-Point Favorites Over The Chiefs
By Ben Nielsen
Las Vegas sports book Bovada has set the Chiefs-Dolphins opening line at -4 in favor of the Dolphins for Sunday’s game in Miami. Only the Oakland Raiders (+14.5 at New England) and Denver Broncos (+5 at Seattle) are bigger underdogs than the Chiefs heading into week three.
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With the underdog status noted, it is a little surprising the line is more heavily weighted towards the Dolphins. Generally speaking Vegas will spot home teams three points and then add or subtract from there based on the quality of the teams. A -4 line for Miami means Vegas things the Dolphins are a better team than Kansas City by one point on a neutral field.
Keep in mind that Vegas takes into account injuries when they set their lines, so Vegas is only give the Dolphins an extra point even thought Kansas City will be traveling to Miami down seven starters. Yes, the point of Vegas is to make money so they are going to set lines in accordance to whatever makes them the most money, but I find it interesting Vegas things so highly of the Chiefs in this situation.
Pulling off the upset in Miami is going to require the Chiefs to come out with a similar zeal that they had against Denver on Sunday. The Dolphins offense can be effectively neutralized with an effective four man pass rush. This mean Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, and Dontari Poe need strong games in the pass rush department. KC has produced 24 quarterback pressures in two games, which is a pretty good clip considering they’ve faced 71 passing plays. PFF has the pass rush graded as being in the top 10 in the NFL so far.
Getting a strong pass rush from the front four/five guys should put the Chiefs in a good spot to flood the secondary and force the Dolphins to run. If they do that then they have a chance to pull of the upset.
And it would indeed be an upset according to Vegas.