Accuscore: Chargers vs. Chiefs


If you have been reading the site long enough then you know I like checking out Accuscore.  Accuscore is a computer program which simulates the game over 10,000 times to come up with an average score and stats.  By its own admission the first three (3) weeks of Accuscore are usually crap since they base their simulations on last years’ teams and stats at this point.  It is still interesting to me nonetheless.

Here is what Accuscore has to say about the MNF game:

“The San Diego Chargers are a solid favorite with a 64% chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Ryan Mathews is projected for 73 rushing yards and a 40% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 36% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Matt Cassel averages 1.23 TD passes vs 0.55 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.84 TDs to 1.18 interceptions. Jamaal Charles averages 67 rushing yards and 0.56 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 41 yards and 0.2 TDs in losses. The San Diego Chargers has a 53% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 85% of the time.”

 SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is KC +5.5 — Over/Under line is 44.5

One of the most important factors lost on this simulation software is the fact that the New Arrowhead will be rocking like never before.  The Chiefs have not played a monday night game in ages.  ( I really do not know how long. Do you?).    The atmosphere will be hostile to say the least.

It is also of importance that the Chargers will be without their starting left tackle and best wide receiver.  Additionally, Ryan Matthews may be good, but he is still a rookie.