FiveThirtyEight: Chiefs have 14% chance to win Super Bowl
DOUBLE UPDATE: Maclin did not tear his ACL! The bad news is that he has a high ankle sprain. That type of injury could keep him out for multiple weeks or he could potentially see action again this season, depending on the severity.
MRI showed Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin did NOT tear his ACL, per source. He did suffer a high ankle sprain. Status for Saturday at NE uncertain.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 10, 2016
UPDATE: Malin reportedly has more pain in his ankle right now than his knee.
Maclin just got out of the MRI booth. His pain in ankle area. Doctors are looking at it.
— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) January 10, 2016
The Kansas City Chiefs are on a roll and the eggheads over at ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight are taking note.
According to the analytics website, the Chiefs not have a 14% chance to win the Super Bowl. This is a percentage that has been rising throughout KC’s winning streak.
FiveThirtyEight uses something called “Elo” to decide these percentages.
"FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. Probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations and update after each game."
You can read about how Elo ratings work over at FiveThirtyEight.
According to the site, the Chiefs also have a pretty dang good chance to knock off the New England Patriots in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs next week. KC currently has a 49% chance of emerging victorious. I don’t know about you but considering the Chiefs are going up against perhaps the greatest QB and coach in NFL history, on the road, I’ll take those odds any day.
Interestingly enough, the Chiefs actually have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Patriots, despite the fact that the rating gives New England a slight edge over KC in the head to head matchup. The Patriots only have an 11% chance to win it all.
The Chiefs have a 27% chance to make the Super Bowl.
Ahead of the Chiefs in the SB rankings are the Pathers (20%), Cardinals (17%) and the Broncos are tied with KC at 14%. Denver, however, has a better chance to move on to the AFC Championship game (58%) and Super Bowl (32%).
None of this means anything (much?), of course. Still, if I had told you back when the Chiefs were 1-5 that they would go on to win 11 straight games, qualify for the Divisional round and have a 14% chance to win the Super Bowl, ya’ll likely would have had me committed.