Projecting The Chiefs 23rd Pick

Just yesterday morning here at Arrowhead Addict, Nicholas Alan Clayton revealed his take on the 23rd pick this year because he’s going to represent the Chiefs in the annual, Football Today Superfan Super Mock Draft over at ESPN. Clayton’s insights are invaluable and you should take a peek at what he said if you haven’t already.

What I intend to show here today is to reveal the malleable list of players who might be available by the time the 23rd pick rolls around by taking the draft five players at a time.

Before going forward today I want to reiterate a point Mr. Clayton touched upon in his piece and that is… if the Chiefs can trade down in this draft… which does appear unlikely because most every team would like to trade down… then the Chiefs should trade down.

Pre-scenarios

Take a look at Walter Football’s Mock Draft Database and while scanning over the top five picks and you will most commonly find the following picks:

1. DE Jadeveon Clowney,

2. QB Blake Bortles,

3. OT Greg Robinson,

4. OLB Khalil Mack

5. Sammy Watkins

6. Jake Matthews

7. Johnny Manziel

The point is, you can count on these players coming off the board long before the Chiefs fill out a card to give to the Commish.

The best way to see who may come off the board next is to look at the best position players still available… or what the teams needs are.

With both Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews gone from the OT pool you can expect teams to dig deeper into that pile even before #20. So, you can add Taylor Lewan as someone to added to the ranks of the “no longer unemployed.” Also, you can add huge WR Mike Evans to this same list because teams do wait very long on draft day to sign the most tall and talented wide receivers like Mike Evans.

Talking about skilled big men who catch the ball, look no further than TE Eric Ebron. He should be gone early as well, come draft day el numero uno. I know that many of the Fanspeak Mock drafts I have done have repeatedly spit out Ebron’s name as not being drafted at #23 but the purpose of today’s post is to reason out who may… and who may not… be gone by pick #23 and I honestly believe Ebron is toast before the Chiefs pick for the first time this year(unless the Chiefs do the most unexpected thing of all — move “up” in the draft).

Next, you have to project that the best cornerback in this draft will be gone in the top half of the first round and that would be CB Justin Gilbert from Oklahoma State.I’ll go ahead and throw in the second rated corner in this year’s draft as well: Darqueze Dennard from Michigan State thought by many to be the best tackler of all the corners listed in 2014.

So, here are the top 12 players projected as “gone” in the draft… so far.

Now we have picks 13 through 22 to predict, exactly ten picks. So, with the elite of the elite  talents off the board let’s turn to the team needs of each of the following teams picking 13-22.

First, lets look at the next 30 prospects, which are next up in terms of ability.

Having coraled enough of the top talents on one listed which is by no means definitive, I’ve mentioned before that I’m usually surprised by Bill Belichick’s pick in the first or second round because the pick is so often one I’ve never heard of before. And since I spend so much of my time focusing on the draft and the prospects it’s always like a sweet surprise in the middle of draft day when it happens.

With that said, here’s the list of players I project… to the best of my knowledge… for picks 13 through 22.

Now we’re nearly ready to project who the Chiefs could take with the #23 pick. First, this list shows 20 prospects left over from the list of 30 which I presented earlier. The players in red are the one’s who are available.

The options present themselves by position and need. However, guessing who any GM ranks as the most valuable is a study in futility. So, let cover a few angles for several positions.

1. Picking an Offensive Lineman

OT Zach Martin, OG Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG Joel Bitonio and OT Morgan Moses.

Martin is the most ready to play on day one. He played both Tackle and Guard at the Senior Bowl. At 6-4, 308 he’d be a lightweight OT but could jump right in to fill a need the Chiefs have on the interior line.

Su’a-Filo is the popular choice. Bitonio is able to play OT, OG and Center.

Moses is a 6-6 and 314 man among men and has excellent feet.

2. Picking a Defensive Lineman

DT Ra’Shede Hageman, 6-6, 310, may be the biggest and best of the lot because he can get the best penetration into the opponents backfield.

DT Louis Nix is 6-2 and 331 and is the most immovable force.

DT Stephon Tuitt, 6-6 and 302 is impressive with 4.82 40 speed but is coming off of a foot surgery. Once played TE.

3. Picking a Wide Receiver

Marqise Lee would probably have gone in the top ten if he’d came out last year. He’s only gotten better but it shows the depth of this draft.

Kelvin Benjamin. Lyle Graversen says Benjamin is very similar to Jon Baldwin. I’m not a fan either.

Cody Latimer is 6-3 and 215 has nearly the size of Benjamin but more speed and runs better routes. Latimer uses his moves to get open.

Allen Robinson is a speedster who can stretch the field.

Donte Moncrief, 6-2, 221, is the most complete WR of the group.

4. Picking a Cornerback

Jason Verrett and Bradley Roby are very similar. Verrett is the most technically sound CB in this draft. Roby is a good hitter. One is 5-10 and the other is 5-11. Both can play the slot or out wide.

5. Picking a QB

Derek Carr might have the best arm in the entire draft. I heard him interviewed and he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder… for his brothers sake.

Tom Savage arrow is pointing up and seems to be a popular choice for the late first or early second.

Jimmy Garoppolo has a very good arm. Rob Rang calls him an, “Intelligent, accurate, athlete” and he probably had the best showing at the East-West Shrine game and Senior Bowls combined.

6. Picking an OLB

Ryan Shazier is a talents and fast outside linebacker who has run a 4.35 40 yard dash. At 6-1 and 237 pounds he doesn’t have the prototypical size needed to rush the passer and deal with the beating handed out by most offensive tackles in the league. However, he had 23.5 tackles for a loss in 2013 to go along with 7 sacks.

With Dee Ford at 6-2 and 240 pounds combined with his athleticism projects as an OLB at the next level and what should not be forgotten are his 14.5 TFLs and 105. Sacks as as senior. I originally left him off this list but have written about him before so he will likely get serious consideration from Dorsey knowing full well that Hali’s production and age are similarly on a downward trend.

~ ~ ~

Next, it’s time to reduce several choices down to two choices.

• It’s either Cody Latimer or Marqise Lee or Donte Moncrief.
• It’s either Ra’Shede Hageman or Louis Nix or Stephon Tuitt.
• It’s either Zach Martin or Morgan Moses or Xavier Su’a-Filo.
• It’s either Jason Verrett or Bradley Roby.
• It’s either Derek Carr or Tom Savage or Jimmy Garaopollo.
• It’s either Ryan Shazier or Dee Ford.

~ ~ ~

So, I’ll go with, OL Zach Martin or WR Marqise Lee or DT Ra’Shede Hageman or OLB Dee Ford or CB Bradley Roby or QB Derek Carr.

I’ll reduce the competition down to: OL Martin, WR Lee or OLB Ford or CB Roby.

Next, I’m choosing to make this a battle between two prospects: Martin or Lee.

And the player I am projecting the Kansas City Chiefs will take in the 2014 draft is:

Click NEXT to see who I project to be the Chiefs 2014 first round choice.