Projecting The Chiefs 23rd Pick

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1 Feature From The Bleachers

Just yesterday morning here at Arrowhead Addict, Nicholas Alan Clayton revealed his take on the 23rd pick this year because he’s going to represent the Chiefs in the annual, Football Today Superfan Super Mock Draft over at ESPN. Clayton’s insights are invaluable and you should take a peek at what he said if you haven’t already.

What I intend to show here today is to reveal the malleable list of players who might be available by the time the 23rd pick rolls around by taking the draft five players at a time.

Before going forward today I want to reiterate a point Mr. Clayton touched upon in his piece and that is… if the Chiefs can trade down in this draft… which does appear unlikely because most every team would like to trade down… then the Chiefs should trade down.

Pre-scenarios

Take a look at Walter Football’s Mock Draft Database and while scanning over the top five picks and you will most commonly find the following picks:

1. DE Jadeveon Clowney,

2. QB Blake Bortles,

3. OT Greg Robinson,

4. OLB Khalil Mack

5. Sammy Watkins

6. Jake Matthews

7. Johnny Manziel

 

Top 5 Mocks

The point is, you can count on these players coming off the board long before the Chiefs fill out a card to give to the Commish.

The best way to see who may come off the board next is to look at the best position players still available… or what the teams needs are.

With both Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews gone from the OT pool you can expect teams to dig deeper into that pile even before #20. So, you can add Taylor Lewan as someone to added to the ranks of the “no longer unemployed.” Also, you can add huge WR Mike Evans to this same list because teams do wait very long on draft day to sign the most tall and talented wide receivers like Mike Evans.

Talking about skilled big men who catch the ball, look no further than TE Eric Ebron. He should be gone early as well, come draft day el numero uno. I know that many of the Fanspeak Mock drafts I have done have repeatedly spit out Ebron’s name as not being drafted at #23 but the purpose of today’s post is to reason out who may… and who may not… be gone by pick #23 and I honestly believe Ebron is toast before the Chiefs pick for the first time this year(unless the Chiefs do the most unexpected thing of all — move “up” in the draft).

Next, you have to project that the best cornerback in this draft will be gone in the top half of the first round and that would be CB Justin Gilbert from Oklahoma State.I’ll go ahead and throw in the second rated corner in this year’s draft as well: Darqueze Dennard from Michigan State thought by many to be the best tackler of all the corners listed in 2014.

So, here are the top 12 players projected as “gone” in the draft… so far.

12 Talents Gone EarlyNow we have picks 13 through 22 to predict, exactly ten picks. So, with the elite of the elite  talents off the board let’s turn to the team needs of each of the following teams picking 13-22.

First, lets look at the next 30 prospects, which are next up in terms of ability.

30 Top Remaining ProspectsHaving coraled enough of the top talents on one listed which is by no means definitive, I’ve mentioned before that I’m usually surprised by Bill Belichick’s pick in the first or second round because the pick is so often one I’ve never heard of before. And since I spend so much of my time focusing on the draft and the prospects it’s always like a sweet surprise in the middle of draft day when it happens.

With that said, here’s the list of players I project… to the best of my knowledge… for picks 13 through 22.

Team Needs

Now we’re nearly ready to project who the Chiefs could take with the #23 pick. First, this list shows 20 prospects left over from the list of 30 which I presented earlier. The players in red are the one’s who are available.

20 remaining prospects

The options present themselves by position and need. However, guessing who any GM ranks as the most valuable is a study in futility. So, let cover a few angles for several positions.

1. Picking an Offensive Lineman

OT Zach Martin, OG Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG Joel Bitonio and OT Morgan Moses.

Martin is the most ready to play on day one. He played both Tackle and Guard at the Senior Bowl. At 6-4, 308 he’d be a lightweight OT but could jump right in to fill a need the Chiefs have on the interior line.

Su’a-Filo is the popular choice. Bitonio is able to play OT, OG and Center.

Moses is a 6-6 and 314 man among men and has excellent feet.

2. Picking a Defensive Lineman

DT Ra’Shede Hageman, 6-6, 310, may be the biggest and best of the lot because he can get the best penetration into the opponents backfield.

DT Louis Nix is 6-2 and 331 and is the most immovable force.

DT Stephon Tuitt, 6-6 and 302 is impressive with 4.82 40 speed but is coming off of a foot surgery. Once played TE.

3. Picking a Wide Receiver

Marqise Lee would probably have gone in the top ten if he’d came out last year. He’s only gotten better but it shows the depth of this draft.

Kelvin Benjamin. Lyle Graversen says Benjamin is very similar to Jon Baldwin. I’m not a fan either.

Cody Latimer is 6-3 and 215 has nearly the size of Benjamin but more speed and runs better routes. Latimer uses his moves to get open.

Allen Robinson is a speedster who can stretch the field.

Donte Moncrief, 6-2, 221, is the most complete WR of the group.

4. Picking a Cornerback

Jason Verrett and Bradley Roby are very similar. Verrett is the most technically sound CB in this draft. Roby is a good hitter. One is 5-10 and the other is 5-11. Both can play the slot or out wide.

5. Picking a QB

Derek Carr might have the best arm in the entire draft. I heard him interviewed and he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder… for his brothers sake.

Tom Savage arrow is pointing up and seems to be a popular choice for the late first or early second.

Jimmy Garoppolo has a very good arm. Rob Rang calls him an, “Intelligent, accurate, athlete” and he probably had the best showing at the East-West Shrine game and Senior Bowls combined.

6. Picking an OLB

Ryan Shazier is a talents and fast outside linebacker who has run a 4.35 40 yard dash. At 6-1 and 237 pounds he doesn’t have the prototypical size needed to rush the passer and deal with the beating handed out by most offensive tackles in the league. However, he had 23.5 tackles for a loss in 2013 to go along with 7 sacks.

With Dee Ford at 6-2 and 240 pounds combined with his athleticism projects as an OLB at the next level and what should not be forgotten are his 14.5 TFLs and 105. Sacks as as senior. I originally left him off this list but have written about him before so he will likely get serious consideration from Dorsey knowing full well that Hali’s production and age are similarly on a downward trend.

~ ~ ~

Next, it’s time to reduce several choices down to two choices.

  • It’s either Cody Latimer or Marqise Lee or Donte Moncrief.
  • It’s either Ra’Shede Hageman or Louis Nix or Stephon Tuitt.
  • It’s either Zach Martin or Morgan Moses or Xavier Su’a-Filo.
  • It’s either Jason Verrett or Bradley Roby.
  • It’s either Derek Carr or Tom Savage or Jimmy Garaopollo.
  • It’s either Ryan Shazier or Dee Ford.

~ ~ ~

So, I’ll go with, OL Zach Martin or WR Marqise Lee or DT Ra’Shede Hageman or OLB Dee Ford or CB Bradley Roby or QB Derek Carr.

I’ll reduce the competition down to: OL Martin, WR Lee or OLB Ford or CB Roby.

Next, I’m choosing to make this a battle between two prospects: Martin or Lee.

And the player I am projecting the Kansas City Chiefs will take in the 2014 draft is:

Click NEXT to see who I project to be the Chiefs 2014 first round choice.

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Tags: Kansas City Chiefs

  • berttheclock

    Excellent breakdown. However, one nit pick. I know Roby has a great deal of athleticism and can play very well when his mind is into playing, but, who knows when that mind of his will click in. He does not like to work on techniques. Verrett would give the Chiefs a better slot defender if you are going to go corner. But, as much as I believe the Chiefs need a legitimate wide out who can stretch the field, I still believe the Chiefs should address, either, the offensive line or defensive line first. So, for me it comes down to a coin toss between better protecting Alex Smith or putting more pressure on Peyton. My coin is still at the ready for the flip. Please, Mr Dorsey work a trade with Houston. That would represent the best possible rewards.

  • berttheclock

    Now, if only we could find a night owl mind locksmith to ascertain which direction Dorsey feels is the most important way to go. Offense or Defense? Which “BPA” does he want, the offensive one or the defensive one. Reminds me of 1979 when Schaaf/Steadman had to make a decision to help the ailing team Marv Levy was coaching. Defense with Mike Bell or offense with Kellon Winslow. They chose Bell who was a fine player, but, Winslow is in the HOF. Now, it is debatable if Winslow would have been as effective with the Chiefs as he was with the Bolts but, it does point to the philosophy of directions at the time.

  • freshmeat62

    I’m so tired of projecting, and stats, and mock drafts. Was moving the draft back Goodell’s idea? I hope it’s a big nasty that can beat the crap out of people, because right now that’s all I want to do.

    Impeach Goodell!!!

    • berttheclock

      Did you read where that planned event which caused Goodell to move his draft into May ended up being cancelled? Now, he says he may try to move the draft into the same 7 round draft, but, extend it to four days.

      • freshmeat62

        Yeah I read where he wants to extend the draft to 4 days.

        Tennis anyone???

        • berttheclock

          Hmmm, 4 days. Kiper might run out of hair spray.

      • Merlin_Arrowhead_Addict

        I don’t buy the event conflict at the reason the draft was moved back. I suspect it’s because teams wanted the college pro days to be spread out more so they could send their top people to as many as possible. The NFL could have found another venue if it desired.

        • ladner morse

          How about … 2, 2-day weekends in a row… then we can really stretch it out!

        • jimfromkcj

          Merlin, when you make your mocks, do you try to pick according to what you think the Chiefs will pick or do you pick according to your own ideas? I have always used my own judgement, and I never seem to be close to the actual draft.

          • Merlin_Arrowhead_Addict

            I try to put myself in the shoes of the GM. It’s hard when you have a change in GM’s. It took me a cycle to start to hone in on Pioli. Dorsey has been faster for me to pick up. Keep an eye on the DraftTek mock that’s coming out soon. It’s still a work in progress, but right now it has my grabs for the first six picks. The only pick I let the simulation pick is the last one. Let me know what you think!

    • ladner morse

      I usually love the offseason but I’m tired of all the projecting too because normally… we’d all be talking about who chose who right now.

      • berttheclock

        Well, it really messes with my “Road to the Roses” week. I am still trying to figure out how to beat California Chrome, the very legitimate invader from Santa Anita. For the past few years, the draft would be out of the way before that week buildup of reading Haskins to determine which horse could get the distance and be the “now” horse. Now, I have to split my time.

        • ladner morse

          Yes… but the derby doesn’t usually start until 5ish right? Draft should be over by then. However, I do understand missing all the build up to that point…..

    • mnelson52

      I want the draft to be two days and move it back to April. I’m ready for it to be done and start talking about who we drafted and how they might improve our team. As much as I like football, they are dragging it out way to long. There are just so many ways you can say this is who I want and why. I want to talk about the players we have instead of who we could have. It’s really getting old. Out of all the people in the draft, we are only getting six. I don’t want to keep talking about all the others.

  • Tyler Alexander

    Why didn’t Dee Ford make your OL comparisons? I think Hali’s replacement should be considered.

    • ladner morse

      Totally my bad. I forgot about Ford and that I’ve done research on him and that I love his tape… so… I went back and fixed it. I’m ctually a big Dee Ford fan and I’d be thrilled if the Chiefs took him in the first. He not only helps with the pass rush this season but projects to the future and gives us leverage in either scaling Hali’s wages back or trading him for future picks. Ford is a stud.

      Thanks for bring him back to my attention.

  • unclejesse40

    Now all I can hope for is that Hageman gets caught with like a pound of weed so that his draft stock falls into the third round. Ok I don’t really want that to happen to the guy but it sure would be nice for the Chiefs if it did.

    • ladner morse

      So… if you don’t want Hageman…. then who do you want? You know Hageman could be another Poe in the making, right?

      • unclejesse40

        The truth is he is who I want. I think for a long time the theory has been in order to compete with Manning and Rivers we need the best secondary in the league. The truth is he is going to pick you apart if he has the time. If we had Poe and a guy like him rushing Manning and making him throw faster, I think that would be the way to beat him.

  • Justin

    I never really liked lee, to me I know he’s kind of a reach, but I like Cody Lattimer. I think he would be great in Andy reids system and start opposite of bone and that would give us a guy who can stretch the field. He’s also a threat in the end zone.

    • Justin

      I mean bowe not bone

    • ladner morse

      Although I was projecting who I think the Chiefs would take in that scenario… I would take Jarvis over Lee because he has better hands. But… Landry is falling and could now be had in the 3rd for some reason. Consequently, I think the Chiefs would be better off going something like Hageman then Landry. I think Landry’s bad 40 times hurt him a lot. But he’s shifty and knows how to get open.

      • David Gonzales

        I agree we should draft Ra’Shede Hageman in the 1st round or Ryan Shazier just based off of his production and huge upside of athleticism. This years WR class is stacked we can possibly pick up Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Cody Latimer, or Jarvis Landry in the 3rd round.

  • Lyle Graversen

    Another fantastic piece Laddie!

    With the WR depth in this draft I’d definitely go with Hageman or Martin.

    • ladner morse

      I’m at the point that almost any direction the Chiefs decide to go… I will be thrilled with it because I feel like there are just no mistakes that can be made early in this draft. Knock on wood.

  • KCMikeG

    If we can’t get Beckham – who would be a multidimensional player impacting the receiving corp and the ST’sthen I think we would better waiting for a WR in the 3rd or 4th round – Bryant & Richardson are my favorites. Moncrief, Abbrederis, Ellington, Huff and Dri Archer can all be had in rounds 3-5.

    To fill the hole at RG or to provide depth/competition if Rishaw Johnson is the starter to be there I really like Billy Turner (who we have had in for a visit) or James Hurst who could be had in rounds 3-5.

    So that leaves DL as our best choice to make an immediate impact on our greatest weakness. The evaporation of our record pace pass rushing exposed our issues at DB. That’s why I like the Beastbacks of Notre Dame – Nix & Tuitt. Either one makes us immensely better across the defense along with a healthy Flowers and Commings. Cooper will learn and have better safety help over the top. Any DB pick is depth or frosting with the right amount of pressure. My question is “why isn’t anyone talking about Ealy? I know he played in a 4-3 but kid seems like he is all that no matter where he plays. The versatility is an advantage for Sutton to exploit.

  • Nick the Kick

    Every mock I’ve seen has Martin going to the Giants @ 12 or right after. As unsexy as an o-lineman is if he’s there we take him. I would be fine with Lee or Shazier too. It doesn’t get much play but my top choice is edge rusher since good war’s should be there later and most of Sutton’s alignments would allow Hali Houston and a new guy to see the field @ same time which would shore up D better than secondary help.

    • ladner morse

      I agree with your point about a new alignment allowing Hali+Houston+ a newby to all be one the field at the same time. But … back to your point about Martin being possibly gone at #12… if he does go there… then who is going to drop. One approach I took with thei draft is to not project the crazy little jumpers who might pop up and get drafted a lto earlier than expected… like Derek Carr, he could go early…. then… some one really good drops to the Chiefs. I think we’re all going to be surprised at the number of high quality prospects who will still be on the board when the Chiefs go to pick.

      • Nick the Kick

        Thanks for the reply. Like you, I have also done many fansided mocks but they lost interest because I was so often able to get Ebron, Donald, Barr, Beckham, etc. @23 with all 3 services. While a wildcard or 2 and trades b4 23 will probably happen, unless at least 3 qbs go before us the odds of landing any of the three 2nd tier wrs or top 4 secondary guys are slim and to me necessitate a trade down. There just seems to be too much consensus by experts to think the subjects of most of the AA articles will be around besides boom/busts like Hageman and Tuitt. After a lot of research I think our best shot could be Lee out of guys worth the pick.

        • Nick the Kick

          On the flip side if the qb needy teams at the top skip qb’s we should get some good trade offers as we go ahead of Cleveland and 1st rd qb’s get 5 year rookie wage scale contracts as opposed to the 4 year contracts that they get in round 2.

  • e_racer

    Marqise Lee has been my pick from mid February, and I am sticking with that pick. He runs good routes, and is the most polished receiver in the draft. His final season was off by his own standards, but still fairly good. However, consider he had a QB change, and suffered nagging injuries, and you will understand why the Chiefs may be getting a deal with their 23rd pick. USC Robert Woods might turn out to be the best WR in the 2013 draft. Marqise Lee is a much better receiver, and should project to be a very effective WR in the NFL.

    Part of the problem with drafting a WR is the time it takes that player to acclimate to the league. Generally, it takes one to two seasons before the light bulb turns on. It doesn’t always have to be that way. Occasionally there is a WR who is pro ready, and produces on day one of his career. I believe Lee will produce immediately, and there will be no lag while he becomes adjusted to the league.

    The knock on Lee has been his injuries. Well, that happened in 2013. He dinged up his left knee, and it never got much better. He had trouble with it all season long. Football is a brutal sport, and injuries happen. This was his first major injury, and he fought it throughout the season. To me that sounds like he had a bad year, and does not indicate to me that he is prone to injuries.

  • Outback Chief

    Did I miss C.J. Mosely in this article

    • berttheclock

      You have just won the AA Hercule Poirot award. However, his being missed in the above listings shows the depth of this draft.

    • ladner morse

      No, you’re right. However, he should have been mentioned as one of the 20 Top remaining prospects.
      I was not drafting and mocking for team so much based upon what I would want for a team as much as who I have seen projected to go for a team. I have ALSO seen Mosley projected in the top ten but when you start with the top 12 adn assume they’ll be gone in the top 22… then move on to the next five the nthe next five… you have what I think is reasonably the players who will be gone. I like Mosley a ton and would be happy if he’s the Chiefs pick… lord knows the Chiefs need a great ILB who can cover. Still if Mosley is available… I still believe it will be between an OL, DL and WR… and I tip my hand here to the WR.

      It was my omission. Nice catch.

  • Stan Colbert

    I checked the latest John Dorsey info. on team website & came away with impression he tryiing to prepare fans for a pick other than WR,S. Could justy impressions or him covering all bases, just noted.

  • mnelson52

    It’s hard for me to figure out what Dorsey would do, but I would go to the weakest part of our team which is defense. I’m not sure who I would pick but I think it would be Hageman, Ealy, or Dee Ford. It would definitely be someone to put pressure on the QB. It wouldn’t be my first choice, but I wouldn’t be real upset if they went O-line. I really wish we could trade down and get two of the three defensive guys with Ford being one of them. I don’t think anyone here would agree with me though.