The Odds On Ten Positions The Chiefs Could Take In The First Round
By Laddie Morse
Jan 2, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker C.J. Mosley (32) runs toward Oklahoma Sooners ball carrier during the second half of the Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
When ILB C.J. Mosley finally comes off the board during the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, wherever that might be, the Kansas City Chiefs possibilities of taking an ILB, diminish rather significantly. However, C.J. Mosley would be worth the choice. He’s just the one and only ILB who is worthy of being considered in round one of this draft. In fact, I don’t believe there’s another ILB worth considering in the top 75 prospects in the 2014 draft.
Now, the question becomes, if Mosley is available at #23, what are the chances that the Chiefs would value him higher than any other player available?
I can say without question, several of those other available players would be WRs and possibly a CB or two. Take a look at this mock I did recently with when I choose WR Mike Evans for the Chiefs. Notice all the players who were still on the board for the Chiefs to choose from.
Odds the Chiefs will select an ILB in the first round: 4%
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In a draft that is as rich in quality QBs as this one is… one must consider that if one of the top gun-slingers fell into the Chiefs laps, they would scoop him up and wait for a rainy day or… use the value that QB holds to trade him to a Q-Beligered franchise who was hoping against hope that one of the top QBs would fall all the way to them in the second round.
In a recent blog conversation, Stacy D. Smith opened my mind to such values. If a QB is there… don’t the Chiefs owe it to themselves to take the QB to either develop or trade?
If you have been creating as many Fanspeak mock drafts as I have over the past two months, you’d know that QB’s don’t fall to number 23. It hasn’t happened once yet. However, now we’re beginning to see QB Derek Carr from Fresno State appear in first round projections and mocks. I get it completely. All the tape I’ve watched on Carr has always had me believing he’s a first round talent. In fact, my QB rankings look like this:
1. Johnny Manziel
2. Derek Carr
3. Blake Bortles
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Jimmy Garoppolo
Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo are the only two top five QB’s I would not feel comfortable with the Chiefs pulling the trigger on at #23. I consider the rest to be high first round talents… but not elite. Mr. Football is the only one who I see as a day one starter. The rest will take some time to work into the starting line-up.
As far as the likelihood of the Chiefs taking one of them… even if they did fall to the Chiefs… there will probably be a half dozen other prospects with more value than any of them… and those players will likely be wide receivers or cornerbacks.
Odd the Chiefs will select a QB in the first round: 6%
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