Chiefs To Taste Another 1st Round Double?
By Laddie Morse
It happened five years ago. The Chiefs traded up into the first round and selected DT Glenn Dorsey at #5 and then took LT Branden Albert 10 picks later at #15.
Now, you can almost taste the double… and it could happen again tomorrow.
In last year’s NFL draft, 50% of the picks were “maneuvered for” in the first round. So, there’s no reason this year to expect a first round that is anything less than “shaken,” not stirred.
The Chiefs could end up with pick number 42… or 54… from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for LT Branden Albert. Some have suggested that the Dolphins will wait until the big three LTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson, are off the board just to make sure one of them doesn’t fall to them first… when they pick at #12… then they’ll pull the trigger on the trade for Albert. The question is, will the Chiefs end up with pick #42 or #54?
Using the Draft Value Exchange Chart… if it’s pick 54, then the Chiefs could “package” pick 63 (276 points), their own first pick of the 3rd round, plus pick 54 (360 points) and they could reasonably expect to move up into the back end of the first round.
That would give the Chiefs the following picks:
Round 1 ~ Pick 1
Round 1 ~ Pick 29 or 30 or 31
Round 3 ~ Pick 96
Round 4 ~ Pick 99
Round 5 ~ Pick 134
Round 6 ~ Pick 170
Round 6 ~ Pick 204
Round 7 ~ Pick 207
As Lyle Graversen pointed out in his article called, “Can Chiefs’ John Dorsey Make A Deal?” the best values in this draft are from picks 15-50. Having two picks in the first round of the draft should produce two starting caliber players.
It did five years ago.
If, on the other hand, the Chiefs are able to package #42 (480 points) and add that to pick #63 (276 points), then they can possibly move up to the 24th or 25th pick range.
That would give the Chiefs the following picks:
Round 1 ~ Pick 1
Round 1 ~ Pick 24 or 25 or 26
Round 3 ~ Pick 96
Round 4 ~ Pick 99
Round 5 ~ Pick 134
Round 6 ~ Pick 170
Round 6 ~ Pick 204
Round 7 ~ Pick 207
So, which prospects might the Chiefs hope to target between picks 24-32?
Following is a chart showing a set of rankings from different media of prospects 24 to 32.
The prospects above the blue line represent players the Chiefs could draft but, they’d have to get the 42nd pick from Miami and then include that pick in a trade.
The prospects below the green line represent players the Chiefs could draft and they’d have to receive the 54th pick from the Dolphins while packaging that pick in a trade.
Prospects highlighted in red are players who could help the Chiefs immediately and possibly even become starters in their first season.
The player that jumps off this list most is Tavon Austin. I’ve heard predictions of Austin going in the top ten so if he falls to the last 4 picks of the first round it would be a shocker. Yes, he’s only 5-9, 174, but there is probably not a player on this chart that is more of an Andy Reid “type” than Austin.
The other players highlighted look like they’d be worthy of moving up because of their potential to have an impact this coming season.
Teams currently picking in slots 23 to 32 are:
Movers and Shakers
The Packers seems like the most obvious trade partner because of John Dorsey’s previous association. That could also land the Chiefs two slots in front of division rival Denver and it might be some sweet justice to take a player they had their eye on although I believe they simply want to target a replacement for Elvis Dumervil.
The next possible trade partner is the Vikings, although they may be trading their two picks to move up and take an elite player. In which case, we’ll have to wait and see who may be the shiny new owners of picks 23 and 25.
New Orleans at #15 only has that one pick in the first two rounds because they lost the 2nd pick to Bountygate. They may be interested in moving down to gather more picks. The Chiefs would probably have to include a mid-round pick from next year’s draft to move this far up.
Cleveland at #6 also only has one pick in the first two rounds because they used their second round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft. They are someone to watch but, appear to be out of Kansas City’s range.
Other teams who may be looking to make a move in the first round include St. Louis, who has two first round picks (numbers 16 and 22) because of last year’s RGIII trade and Atlanta, who has been vocal about moving up again to take an elite player. The NY Jets have two first round picks as well (#9 and #13).
If you’re a team picking early in the draft, it’s become fashionable to trade your pick because:
1) you want to maximize the amount you’re paying to match the value ranking of a prospect you’ve targeted or,
2) you want to gain more picks or,
3) you want to move up to take an elite player.
One of the analysts I’ve come to trust, usually, is Mike Mayock’s. Here’s his ranking of prospects 23 through 32 are:
If FS Eric Reid (91 tackles, seven pass breakups and 2 INTs in 2012) were available, he would be great in tandem with our Mr. Berry. Datone Jones has too much natural size, ability and versatility to pass up at this stage in the draft. His 17 ½ tackles for a loss, 6 sacks and 57 tackles… all in his Senior season… should get him some consideration even if he is a one season wonder.
Trading Back Into the End of the First Round
This scenario is intriguing to consider but the reality is… there’s probably going to be a completely different list of prospects available when picks 24 to 32 come around and if the Chiefs are ready to trade… they could deal themselves a second hand in the first round of a draft which is thought to be deep at several key positions.
The Chiefs should be ready. I’ve looked back over NFL draft history for the past 8 years and the Packers (John Dorsey’s team) have been involved in a high volume of trades in the first two rounds.
With Arizona reportedly interested in Albert now, the Chiefs could pick up pick #38. Even with the value of #38 (520) it still only allows them to move up to pick number 22. However, Jerry Jones and the Cowboys have stated clearly that they’re interested in moving down so, who knows… maybe the Chiefs could end up with pick #18. The Cowboys current pick.
Another aspect to consider is that if a high volume of trades goes down in the first round this year, like it did last year, then there will likely be a very different list of teams picking in those spots, if the Chiefs were to attempt to trade up to that region of the draft board.
On the other hand, the Chiefs could be ready, we know they’re willing, to trade down from #1 which will most certainly produce another 2nd round pick. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweeted on Tuesday that, “#Chiefs GM John Dorsey called Florida DT Sharrif Floyd yesterday to check on him. Hmmm. At 1 or for trade back?“ Now, if for some reason the Chiefs plan all along has been to take DT, Sharrif Floyd with a trade back, a 1st round double-dip appears more and more likely. It also means other arrangements have been made to secure a top notch LT.
So Addicts, do you see any prospects who could fall to picks 24-32 which you’d like the see the Chiefs trade up for… if possible? What would your 1st round “double-dip” look like?