Chiefs To Taste Another 1st Round Double?

It happened five years ago. The Chiefs traded up into the first round and selected DT Glenn Dorsey at #5 and then took LT Branden Albert 10 picks later at #15.

Now, you can almost taste the double… and it could happen again tomorrow.

In last year’s NFL draft, 50% of the picks were “maneuvered for” in the first round. So, there’s no reason this year to expect a first round that is anything less than “shaken,” not stirred.

The Chiefs could end up with pick number 42… or 54… from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for LT Branden Albert. Some have suggested that the Dolphins will wait until the big three LTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson, are off the board just to make sure one of them doesn’t fall to them first… when they pick at #12… then they’ll pull the trigger on the trade for Albert. The question is, will the Chiefs end up with pick #42 or #54?

Using the Draft Value Exchange Chart… if it’s pick 54, then the Chiefs could “package” pick 63 (276 points), their own first pick of the 3rd round, plus pick 54 (360 points) and they could reasonably expect to move up into the back end of the first round.

That would give the Chiefs the following picks:

 Round 1 ~ Pick 1

Round 1 ~ Pick 29 or 30 or 31

Round 3 ~ Pick 96

Round 4 ~ Pick 99

Round 5 ~ Pick 134

Round 6 ~ Pick 170

Round 6 ~ Pick 204

Round 7 ~ Pick 207

As Lyle Graversen pointed out in his article called, “Can Chiefs’ John Dorsey Make A Deal?” the best values in this draft are from picks 15-50. Having two picks in the first round of the draft should produce two starting caliber players.

It did five years ago.

If, on the other hand, the Chiefs are able to package #42 (480 points) and add that to pick #63 (276 points), then they can possibly move up to the 24th or 25th pick range.

That would give the Chiefs the following picks:

 Round 1 ~ Pick 1

Round 1 ~ Pick 24 or 25 or 26

Round 3 ~ Pick 96

Round 4 ~ Pick 99

Round 5 ~ Pick 134

Round 6 ~ Pick 170

Round 6 ~ Pick 204

Round 7 ~ Pick 207

So, which prospects might the Chiefs hope to target between picks 24-32?

Following is a chart showing a set of rankings from different media of prospects 24 to 32.

The prospects above the blue line represent players the Chiefs could draft but, they’d have to get the 42nd pick from Miami and then include that pick in a trade.

The prospects below the green line represent players the Chiefs could draft and they’d have to receive the 54th pick from the Dolphins while packaging that pick in a trade.

Prospects highlighted in red are players who could help the Chiefs immediately and possibly even become starters in their first season.

The player that jumps off this list most is Tavon Austin. I’ve heard predictions of Austin going in the top ten so if he falls to the last 4 picks of the first round it would be a shocker. Yes, he’s only 5-9, 174, but there is probably not a player on this chart that is more of an Andy Reid “type” than Austin.

The other players highlighted look like they’d be worthy of moving up because of their potential to have an impact this coming season.

Teams currently picking in slots 23 to 32 are:

Movers and Shakers

The Packers seems like the most obvious trade partner because of John Dorsey’s previous association. That could also land the Chiefs two slots in front of division rival Denver and it might be some sweet justice to take a player they had their eye on although I believe they simply want to target a replacement for Elvis Dumervil.

The next possible trade partner is the Vikings, although they may be trading their two picks to move up and take an elite player. In which case, we’ll have to wait and see who may be the shiny new owners of picks 23 and 25.

New Orleans at #15 only has that one pick in the first two rounds because they lost the 2nd pick to Bountygate. They may be interested in moving down to gather more picks. The Chiefs would probably have to include a mid-round pick from next year’s draft to move this far up.

Cleveland at #6 also only has one pick in the first two rounds because they used their second round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft. They are someone to watch but, appear to be out of Kansas City’s range.

Other teams who may be looking to make a move in the first round include St. Louis, who has two first round picks (numbers 16 and 22) because of last year’s RGIII trade and Atlanta, who has been vocal about moving up again to take an elite player. The NY Jets have two first round picks as well (#9 and #13).

If you’re a team picking early in the draft, it’s become fashionable to trade your pick because:

1) you want to maximize the amount you’re paying to match the value ranking of a prospect you’ve targeted or,

2) you want to gain more picks or,

3) you want to move up to take an elite player.

One of the analysts I’ve come to trust, usually, is Mike Mayock’s. Here’s his ranking of prospects 23 through 32 are:

If FS Eric Reid (91 tackles, seven pass breakups and 2 INTs in 2012) were available, he would be great in tandem with our Mr. Berry. Datone Jones has too much natural size, ability and versatility to pass up at this stage in the draft. His 17 ½ tackles for a loss, 6 sacks and 57 tackles… all in his Senior season… should get him some consideration even if he is a one season wonder.

Trading Back Into the End of the First Round

This scenario is intriguing to consider but the reality is… there’s probably going to be a completely different list of prospects available when picks 24 to 32 come around and if the Chiefs are ready to trade… they could deal themselves a second hand in the first round of a draft which is thought to be deep at several key positions.

The Chiefs should be ready. I’ve looked back over NFL draft history for the past 8 years and the Packers (John Dorsey’s team) have been involved in a high volume of trades in the first two rounds.

With Arizona reportedly interested in Albert now, the Chiefs could pick up pick #38. Even with the value of #38 (520)  it still only allows them to move up to pick number 22. However, Jerry Jones and the  Cowboys have stated clearly that they’re interested in moving down so, who knows… maybe the Chiefs could end up with pick #18. The Cowboys current pick.

Another aspect to consider is that if a high volume of trades goes down in the first round this year, like it did last year, then there will likely be a very different list of teams picking in those spots, if the Chiefs were to attempt to trade up to that region of the draft board.

On the other hand, the Chiefs could be ready, we know they’re willing, to trade down from #1 which will most certainly produce another 2nd round pick. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweeted on Tuesday that, #Chiefs GM John Dorsey called Florida DT Sharrif Floyd yesterday to check on him. Hmmm. At 1 or for trade back? Now, if for some reason the Chiefs plan all along has been to take DT, Sharrif Floyd with a trade back, a 1st round double-dip appears more and more likely. It also means other arrangements have been made to secure a top notch LT.

So Addicts, do you see any prospects who could fall to picks 24-32 which you’d like the see the Chiefs trade up for… if possible? What would your 1st round “double-dip” look like?

 

Topics: KC Chiefs

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  • elly violette

    I’ll take Eric Fisher and Kevin Minter!

    • William Campbell

      Exactly was I was coming to say.. Minter next to Johnson? Anyone say top 5 defense?

      • cd3382

        yup, easily!

  • Deaudrey Dre-Mac MacDonald

    Personal I just hope whatever moves they make is the right moves for the Chiefs

  • 58dtrip

    I’d rather have fisher he’s got a mean streak,then draft some play makers

    • ladner morse

      I’d go Eric Reid or Minter for our second pick………..

  • berttheclock

    Great list, Ladner. But, should a Mike Ditka clone happen to call John Dorsey and offer 9 picks to be able to move up, please, accept his offer. In ’99, Ditka called Mike Brown of the Bengals, so, he could move up to 3 and take Ricky Williams. Brown had spotted a QB with a 166.1 rating, 30 TDs an only 7 INTS and craved him. So, the Bengals took Akili Smith and Ditka made the deal with the Redskins to take Williams at 5.
    But, as noted, yesterday, in one of various pundit reports, the lower portion of this 1st round is prime for adding depth and the beauty of picking in that part of the 1st round is the team can lock up the player for 5 years instead of the 4 years, which begins in the second round. So, depth player for less money and control over 5 years.

  • Chris Tarrants

    Fisher at one then jump back in around 23-28 and. Take manti teo

    • elly violette

      Do you really like Manti Teo? He didn’t look good in the national championship game against Alabama at all.

      • Chris Tarrants

        I do like him. I think in that game he was trying to do too much and became overwhelmed which wouldn’t happen here because he will be playing second fiddle to Johnson and Houston. Teo would just be an extra cog to stabilize the wheel of our defense. He looked great most of the year and fell flat on his face in front of the whole nation but he still put up great numbers.

        • ladner morse

          Yea… I like Teo too. But, do you like him more than Minter?

          • Chris Tarrants

            honestly I think he has more upside long term. Think about it this way, if there was never any talk about a dead fake girlfriend then he would still be projected top ten! People were talking about possible first overall before the title game and before the drama. I’m sorry but I cant write off a player because the media sank their teeth into them and created a circus! I still think Teo would shine if he was playing with one other stud backer but if he landed here we would have four!!!! Think about that for just a second, Johnson, Houston, Hali, and Teo! We would instantly have a top 5 defense and a top 2 run defense

        • elly violette

          I wouldn’t want the Chiefs to pass on Teo if he was available anywhere late in the first round but, if Minter was there too…. I take Minter simply because he wouldn’t have all the drama.

        • codger

          Boomer Grigsby had better numbers than Teo. Teo did not look that good in several games, but the Alabama game showed he isn’t physical enough to be our thumper

  • scomstock55

    fisher and the DE from SMU…or Tavon Austin

  • jubben

    I know months ago there was a whisper of a Luke Joeckel and Tyler Wilson. I know they aren’t both 1st round picks, but I like the guy and I hope we pick him up if he falls far enough.

    • ladner morse

      I’m still a big Tyler Wilson fan. I don’t care if some evaluator thinks he has toddler-sized hands… he’s a football player… strong… accurate… a bull in the pocket… level headed… good leader. Wish he’d end up as the Chiefs 3rd string developmental QB…. if we can’t have Geno…. get TW.

  • redchiefs

    Can Detroit take the chance they don’t get one of the 3 top LTs? If KC could trade back to #5, who do they take there? I know if Joekel, Fisher or Johnson would fall to KC after such a trade, it’d be pretty obvious, but if all three of them are gone who is still there at #5 and who do they take? I hear Arizona needs a LT, who has the nerve to sit tight and hope for a LT rather than trading up?

    • elly violette

      If the Chiefs traded back to #5 and all 3 LTs are gone by then… they should take DION JORDAN!

  • Brady Jones

    to jump back into the 1st means you have to give up a low round pick. Jumping back in to pick up teo would be the worst move in franchise history. I would do it for miter, brown, or ogeltree The dream would be fisher who is the best choice at one and Miter our new thump backer. Then maybe jump back into the 2nd with our 3rd rounders and pick up SS DJ Swearinger or Shamarko Thomas

    • ladner morse

      You can’t use the later third round pick…. Its a Compensatory Pick and can’t be traded.

      • elly violette

        Does that go for the Chiefs 6th round compensatory pick too?

        • ladner morse

          Yes. All compensatory picks can not be traded.

  • unclejesse40

    “Some have suggested that the Dolphins will
    wait until the big three LTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane
    Johnson, are off the board just to make sure one of them doesn’t fall to
    them first… when they pick at #12… then they’ll pull the trigger on the
    trade for Albert.”
    Ok if this is really what they are thinking and the Chiefs are playing along with this, you better believe that if the top three tackles are gone, the trade price for Albert goes up, way up. If Miami is going to try and get the best of both worlds it is going to cost you to mess around with us.

    • elly violette

      You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind, you don’t pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger, and you don’t mess around with Jim… or John in this case!

    • tm1946

      We seem to out think the obvious sometimes. I can hardly wait for the draft just so I can laugh at all the comments, mine included.

    • Jamie Denton

      It has also been said the Cardinals have interest in B.A. as well and have a 2nd rounder at 38 I believe. So this could play into everything as well! I just hope there’s a plan B. I am sure they will go OT with the 1st pick even with no trades and I think it will be Fisher because he has already stated the Chiefs had asked if he would be ok playing RT and he replied he’d play anywhere he is asked! Like his attitude!!

  • micah stephenson

    Id take Fisher and trade back up in the 1st for Geno Smith.

    • elly violette

      OMG! That would be awesome. To pass on Geno with the first pick and then be able to pick Geno up later in the first……. that would be ironic…. or something like that!

    • ladner morse

      And maybe in some strange version of the universe the Chiefs could end up with Joeckel and Geno and Teo. :)

  • berttheclock

    NFL.com and the Miami Herald are saying Ireland wants the Chiefs to allow a physical for Albert. If so, it might mean they are comforable with his demands and want to concentrate on trying to pick up Milliner.

    • elly violette

      You mean for “MIAMI” to pick up Milliner, right?

      • berttheclock

        Yes, of course, I mean Ireland would like to draft Milliner. I wrote by asking for a physical for Albert, it must mean they are OK with his demands.

        • elly violette

          So, Albert taking a physical is the last step???

          • ladner morse

            I just think he means that Albert has to take the physical before Miami can sign off on the trade. And Miami has to okay it before the Chiefs approve.

  • Roger Mihalko

    Last years Picks, in case anyone forgot.
    We drafted two tackles 2nd round and 3rd round. Both played last year and got experience. Why do we need Joekel or Fisher? are they that much better than Allen or Stephenson? I’m not sure myself.

    I still think Hudson at center, Schwartz and Asamoah at guards and Allen and Stephenson as the tackles is a fine O-line. We have Youth and experience on this line. We have a chance for these guys to gell and be together for some time to come.

    We have depth at center (Draheim, Tommie), Guard (Durand, Ryan and Tackle (Baker, Steven, Waldron, Dustin)

    They can add another guard in lower round if they want to. Not sure what more to say to this

    The defense we have two glaring holes and depth issues. ILB and Safety. We need both filled for starters and we need depth/backup for future.

    Staying 3-4 defense is good, we just need more aggression, LOTS More.

    see where this all lands tomorrow.

    Round 1, Pick 11: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

    Round 2, Pick 12 (44th Overall): Jeff Allen, OT Illinois

    Round 3, Pick 11 (74th Overall): Donald Stephenson, OT, Oklahoma

    Round 4, Pick 12 (107th Overall): Devon Wylie, WR, Fresno State

    Round 5, Pick 11 (146th Overall): De’Quan Menzie, CB, Alabama

    Round 6, Pick 12 (182nd Overall): Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M

    Round 7, Pick 11 (218th Overall): Jerome Long DT, San Diego State

    Round 7, Pick 31 (238th Overall, From Patriots): Junior Hemingway, WR, Michigan

    • ladner morse

      Interesting post.

      “We have depth at center (Draheim, Tommie), Guard (Durand, Ryan and Tackle (Baker, Steven, Waldron, Dustin)”

      You can bet these guys are hoping the Chiefs DON’T draft OL…….

      • elly violette

        So… are you saying… don’t draft offensive linemen… so they don’t get their feelings hurt????

        • ladner morse

          Nope… not at all. Actually I’m hoping the Chiefs will stick to the BPA formula.

    • berttheclock

      Both Allen and Stephenson are weak on pass blocking. Stephenson is still too weak and needs far more work in the weight room. Remember, Reid wants to pass first and run second, so, he wants pass blockers. That is why Winston was released

      • Roger Mihalko

        I can appreciate that, but last year wasn’t exactly stellar for coaching and a young guy to learn. Hudson’s broken leg threw the line into dissaray. I knew Winston wasn’t great on Pass Blocking. I am not saying not to draft O-lineman. I’m saying we have players to work with and might want to do that. But My thoughts are in the minority. I am running and defense wins championships kinda guy.

    • codger

      Good point about our existing O-line, but I think #1 has to be a tackle in this yrs draft. AND, people need to think about the parallel point to yours – getting more O linemen means we will have to cut more players.

  • codger

    Ridiculous to trade multiple picks for another 1st rounder in this draft. Nice to get a second for Albert but we need a LB and WR or DE. Better to have 2 picks than 1

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