The Kansas City Chiefs may be in the worst possible position to get good value out of the 2013 NFL Draft. Normally, having the first overall pick is seen as a reward. Just a few months ago Chiefs fans were celebrating the fact that despite their season of agony, they would at least have that coveted first pick. Then they got a good look at the players available.
The thing is, this isn’t a bad draft class. There are lots of good players. So many in fact that there are going to be several first round caliber players still on the board in the 2nd round. There just doesn’t appear to be any franchise changing elite players at the top of the draft. So to recap, the best value in the draft is in the mid to late first round and early second round. Exactly where the Chiefs aren’t drafting.
That’s why I said they are in the worst position to get good value. Teams drafting in the mid to late first round will get good value with their first round pick and teams drafting at the top of the draft, while maybe not getting an elite player in the first, are at least rewarded with the ability to get another first round caliber player at the top of the second round. Unless of course you’ve traded away your second round pick.
Now, I’m not bashing Alex Smith. In fact, I’m slowly coming around to the idea of him and Andy Reid leading the KC offense. I’m not anti-Alex, I was just pro-Geno and high on the value that was going to be available for KC’s 2nd round pick. I get why Dorsey did it though. In a year when many experts think there isn’t a good starting QB in the entire draft (cue discussion #1,272 on if Geno Smith will succeed or not), Dorsey was able to get his day one starting QB for a 2nd rounder. That’s not bad value (although other QBs like Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn are going for less). It just means that Dorsey traded away the ability to get value out of the draft in return for his starting QB.
That’s why John Dorsey needs to prove his worth and make a deal in order to get back into the 2nd round and get the most out of his first draft as KC’s GM. If the Chiefs stay put they are currently in position to get one starting (and hopefully Pro Bowl caliber) player with the first pick and then won’t pick again until pick #63. In a draft where the best value available is probably in picks #15-50 that’s not great positioning. Could KC land a day one starter with pick #63? Yes, but usually 3rd round picks start more as role players and if you’re lucky then they eventually turn into starters.
So if KC wants more then one day one impact player from this draft class John Dorsey needs to make a move. The most likely deal is that he moves Branden Albert to the Dolphins for their 2nd round pick (#42). Many KC fans don’t like this move. I’ve stated before in posts that my basic feeling is that if they don’t like Alert (for whatever reason) we might as well get something for him. However, that may force KC to stay put at #1 overall to draft his replacement. Trading the first pick would be the other obvious way to pick up another pick or two and get more value out of this draft. However, other teams are looking at the same draft board we are and may be unlikely to trade up in a draft short on elite talent. As has been discussed on multiple occasions, the best hope KC has is that somebody wants to move up to take Geno Smith since QBs are typically the only position worth trading up to #1 for (cue discussion #1,273 on wether or not Geno is worth it or not). The final option would be to see if Dorsey could perhaps package his two 3rd round picks in return for moving up into the early to mid 2nd round if there was a certain player they felt was worth it.
Bottom line, I really want KC to get back into the 2nd round of this draft. I believe there is a good chance that a player that they could get in the #30-50 range could end up having just as much of an impact as the player they take with their first pick. Here are a list of some of the players that are in the #30-50 range on most big boards:
Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
Eric Reid – S – LSU
Matt Elam – S – Florida
Kevin Minter – LB – LSU
Arthur Brown – LB – KSU
Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
Robert Woods – WR – USC
Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
So what do you think Addicts? Do you want KC to get back into the 2nd round as badly as I do? Do you have faith that new GM John Dorsey can get it done? Are you okay with trading away Albert, the first overall pick, or our two 3rd round picks in order to get it done? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!