Feb 22, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs' NFL Draft 2013: Trading Out of the Number One Draft Pick


When the 2012 NFL season ended in a disappointing 2-14 record for the Kansas City Chiefs, the one silver lining was the fact they had earned the first overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. While the class of quarterbacks is significantly lower than recent years (read: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, etc.) the Chiefs were certain that no matter who was running the show at One Arrowhead Drive, they would draft a quarterback. When the new head coach was introduced as Andy Reid, fans rejoiced at the news, knowing Reid’s history and what he could do with young quarterbacks (read: Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick.) When Clark Hunt introduced his new general manager as John Dorsey of Green Bay Packer fame, fans practically began salivating at the thought of Geno Smith in a Chiefs jersey. After all, this was the guy who drafted Aaron Rodgers. Right?

With news of the Alex Smith trade with the San Francisco 49ers, along with a Dorsey press conference where he downplayed the caliber of college quarterbacks in this year’s draft, the hopes that the Smith starting under center this season would be wearing #12, and not #11 were dashed. At that point, everyone was pretty certain what the Chiefs would be doing in the draft. Add this to the fact that the duo had signed Drew Brees’ understudy, Chase Daniel, to hold Alex Smith’s clipboard this season, and the chance of the Chiefs drafting a QB in any round higher than four are pretty much nil. While some still hold onto hope that Dorsey and Reid will call Smith’s (Geno that is) number on April 25th, I think we can all call that a pipe-dream at this point.

The consensus from most draft experts on who will be picked number one has  focused mainly on the exceptional crop of offensive linemen in this year’s class. Most experts are convinced the Chiefs will either draft Luke Joeckel from Texas A & M, Eric Fisher from Central Michigan or Lane Johnson from Oklahoma. This theory has gained even more steam after the Chiefs released Eric Winston. However, in a surprising move, the Chiefs leadership signed offensive tackle Geoff Schwartz from the Vikings at the end of the week. This may have been a depth move as Schwartz hasn’t been a full-time starter in the NFL as of yet, or perhaps the duo of Dorsey and Reid may see something in him that other teams haven’t and have him pegged as their “day one” starter at the right tackle position. With the young talent already on the offensive line in Kansas City, it would seem a waste to bring in another lineman, regardless of the talent level in the draft.

So as the free agency period has gone from shopping at Macy’s to shopping at K-Mart in the level of talent and value, the ultimate question remains. What do the Chiefs do with the coveted number one overall pick? While many think the Chiefs will draft the best player available, signs seem to be pointing more and more to the Chiefs trading out of the number one slot. Who should they trade with and what could that trade bring? Let’s take a look at some possibilities.

In examining possible trade scenarios one would have to think that unless the deal was overinflated and too good not to pass up, the Chiefs would probably not want to trade out of the top ten picks. Looking at the teams in the top ten, there are a few who have a significant need at quarterback. While it’s been said again and again Geno Smith isn’t worth the number one pick, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. To a team without a starting caliber quarterback, it would seem that not picking up a signal caller is more risky than over-reaching and drafting one with the top pick. Of the teams in the top ten, four teams (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo) have a significant need at quarterback and a fifth team (Philadelphia) has expressed great interest in Geno Smith.

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted signal caller Blaine Gabbert two years ago, in 2011, with the tenth overall pick in the draft. His performance has been less than inspiring. As such, they may be ready to scrap the Gabbert experiment and move on to another quarterback. As the Jaguars draft in the number two position, the only way they would trade to move up is if they were that desperate to dump Gabbert (which I’m not 100 percent sold on) and if they seriously thought the Chiefs might draft Smith away from them. The eventuality of both of these scenarios is slim, not making them a likely trade partner.

The next team with a quarterback need is the Oakland Raiders drafting in the third position. I will only say that if Reid and Dorsey trade with the Raiders and allow them to get Smith, their career in Kansas City will most likely end before it starts. The goal here should be to keep Smith away from Oakland as much as anything else.

The Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback woes have been about as well publicized as the Kansas City Chiefs’. Just like the Chiefs, they had more than one starter at quarterback last year. Just like the Chiefs, they just released one of those starters from last season, Kevin Kolb. And, just like the Chiefs, they used the off-season to bring in another quarterback. The free agent they signed is Drew Stanton, former back up to the rookie phenomenon Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. Whether or not Stanton is to be the future of the Arizona franchise remains to be seen. However, the team has indicated Stanton was brought in to start, especially considering the ties Stanton has with new Cardinals’ head coach, Bruce Arians whose previous job was offensive coordinator with the Colts. All in all, the Cardinals don’t seem willing to give up the farm to trade into the number one position.

There have been reports this last week, that the Philadelphia Eagles were not only present at the West Virginia pro-day, but put Geno Smith through a “grueling” workout. The Eagles, under new leadership of Chip Kelly, seem to be collecting quarterbacks. Previous starter, Michael Vick is still under contract as is second year man Nick Foles who was drafted by the Chiefs’ own Andy Reid during his tenure there. Additionally, the Eagles signed quarterback Dennis Dixson, a former Kelly protégé, indicating they are full at the QB position. All these factors point to the fact that their pro-day interest in Smith is nothing more than a bluff, as they likely won’t spend a high, first round pick on a quarterback.

A trade with the Buffalo Bills offers a mutually beneficial scenario. In case you aren’t glued to Twitter and the NFL Network like I’ve been the last week (much to my wife’s chagrin, by the way) you may not know that the Bills cut their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The move leaves the Bills with Tarvaris Jackson as their starting quarterback. In a QB starved market the Bills will likely be looking to the draft to find their hope. The only problem is, currently they’re scheduled to draft eighth overall. This could create a problem for them in getting the best QB available, which I think at this point everyone universally agrees is Geno Smith, because Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia and Arizona draft in front of them and all three could potentially have interest in and draft Geno Smith.

The Bills are desperate at this point and could potentially be the most likely trade partner with the Chiefs in order to snag their franchise QB. In doing this, the Chiefs could stand to gain a substantial amount of picks. If you use last year’s trade for the #2 overall pick between the St. Louis Rams and the Washington Redskins as a guide, the teams swapped picks in the first round and the Redskins gave up their second round pick as well as their 2013 first rounder and their 2014 first rounder.

Now, I don’t think the Bills are quite as desperate to get Geno Smith as the Skins were to draft RGIII, but I don’t think swapping first rounders, a second rounder this year and next year’s second round pick are completely out of the question. That could put the Chiefs in a pretty good spot moving forward. Dorsey and Reid have both said they intend to build this team through the draft. This would be the way to do it. As an added benefit, the sting many fans are feeling from the two picks spent on Alex Smith would be significantly lessened if we gained these picks back in a trade out of the top spot.

If the Chiefs pulled off this trade, they would still most likely be able to get one of the linemen they’ve had their eye on throughout this process. Lane Johnson is projected to go at around the 11th pick, so they would be able to get their hands on him, at least. Depending on how the rest of the board fell, they might even be able to swing Fisher. Regardless, it would be the best possible scenario for the team to fall into.

I know there are potentially dozens of scenarios that could play out in the month and a half leading up to the draft. If there’s one you think more likely than outlined here, please let me know. I’d love to hear some of the ideas that are floating around out there.

Whichever way this shakes out, it’s going to be interesting to watch. It’s not even April yet and I already can’t wait to smell wings cooking and taste ice cold beer on a Sunday afternoon. I went crazy with my predictions last year and how I thought the Chiefs were going to perform after what I thought was a great free agency. I’m cautiously optimistic this year, but I’m not declaring us Superbowl bound quite yet. I’ve come to learn, as many of you have, that the truth is in winning football games. We haven’t had a whole lot of truth around here in a while. Here’s hoping this year we don’t get lied to again.

That’s how I see it Addicts. What say you?

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Tags: Andy Reid John Dorsey Kansas City Chiefs

  • cyberry

    Remember Stephenson (the Chiefs 3rd Rd pick) beat out Lane Johnson for LT his Senior year in college. Why spend a #1 draft pick for a player who had to play RT because of a player already on you team..who has proven to already be able to compete in the NFL..

    • Jason Seibel

      Very good point.

    • micah stephenson

      Nice!

    • Ehud

      Stephenson beating out Lane Johnson might have something to do with the fact that Johnson had never played OT until Stephenson’s Senior year. Before that he was a QB & a TE.

      • cyberry

        So he played 11 more games at LT his senior year..That’s just not enough for me personally to justify spending a 1st Rd pick for although lineman…I really think Stephenson can play RT for the Chiefs..Don’t get me wrong..he needs to bulk up upper body and I’m sure there will be “first year starter” mistakes..(probably more than a few..lol).plus that might be why they brought in Schwartz..just a thought

        • cyberry

          another lineman..(sorry)

    • Danny W

      I have to agree with this, I think Johnson is woefully over rated. I’d say Chance Warmac if he’s there maybe. That would be more BPA.

    • KCMikeG

      Great point. We can add OL depth in the 3rd or 4th round if we let Stephenson/Schwartz compete for the RT position. I’m starting to like WR Patterson or even Minter at SILB if we can trade down.

  • Barrie Neal Parkes Jr.

    I say we have trade out of the number one slot just because of the alex smith trade that way we regain a pick this year and hopefully one next year i wouldnt mind the same compensation st louis got from washington last year trade spots a 2nd next years first and 2015 first

    • Jim Harper

      That is not going to happen. RG3 was far more valued and sought after. Geno won’t command that kind of interest.

      • TAZMOSIS

        History tells us that when teams become desperate, they will do desperate things. Let’s say we have a new head coach, as do the Bills. They have just released their last QB of the future, which they did. Now, said coach needs to infuse this team with some talent at QB. Plus, the fan base is nuts about making something happen. It almost makes perfect sense to take who almost everyone thinks is the best available QB. We all know that he is not RG or Luck, but so what? If they pass on Smith and he goes elsewhere and does good, then the GM and the coach become just two more on the unemployment line. If they grab him, at least their fans think that they made the right move, and they can give their new leader a couple years to make good. Maybe it doesn’t make complete sense to many, but then this is the NFL. Lots of moves are questionable.

        • Jason Seibel

          So you think we should draft Geno or the Bills should?

          • TAZMOSIS

            No way do we draft Geno. Trade out and get the picks.

        • Calchiefsfan

          The great thing about quarterbacks is that it is such a valuable position that GM’s and owners overpay for them all the time.

        • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

          I definitely agree, I just hope the front office is rational in accepting a reasonable compensation for the first overall, don’t expect RG3s compensation

      • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

        Jim, I read most of your posts and I just want to say THANK YOU for being rational!! Geno simply doesnt command the compensation that RG3 or Luck did last year! Swapping firsts, and gaining two seconds would be best case scenario

  • micah stephenson

    Trade down? Uh No! If Ried plans on staying the Chiefs head coach long term he shud draft GENO SMITH! If he dont draft GENO SMITH then he better win RIGHT NOW with A.Smith or else! And I dont mean 8-8 or 9-7 and geting smashed in the playoffs! We better make the playoffs and win a game or 2!

    • Jason Seibel

      I hope that was sarcasm.

    • Heilios

      So Micah, correct me if I’m wrong but it sounds like you are hoping that we draft someone with the first pick? Someone who is a certain Genotype?

      • Calchiefsfan

        Nice

    • Chris Tarrants

      Best case scenario in my mind would be to draft Geno first, then send out a memo that ALEX Smith is up for sale for this years first round pick and hopefully get buffalo to pull the trigger, we could have Geno and basically use Alex to swap our second rounder for a first rounder! Then yell checkmate lol

      • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

        If Buffalo wanted Alex Smith, especially for their 8th overall, they would have done it before the Chiefs traded for him! The likelihood of your post is zero

        • Chris Tarrants

          I understand the chance is slim to none but don’t forget since we snatched Alex up they dumped fitz, they are really hurting for a QB and I be leave that Barkley will be a raider because one way or another Geno will be #1

  • Ehud

    I think you may be right that Buffalo is our likeliest trade partner. The three things I look at when considering a trade is 1) The Want, 2) The Ability, and 3) The Need.
    1) I don’t know how much Buffalo wants G. Smith but, they have to want him pretty bad and they have to believe he won’t fall to them at 8. They also have to like the trade up versus taking someone like WR Cordarelle Patterson at 8 and then a QB with their second rounder.
    2) Buffalo only has 6 picks which is not ideal but, it is their 7th that’s missing. That may mean we have to give them a 6th or 7th back to them as part of a deal.
    3) QB is the biggest need they have.

    I think the key to the whole thing is that Geno Smith needs to be a hot name that other teams believe won’t make it too far in the draft. The other thing is that the Chiefs may have to be willing to accept below market value for the trade down. The question is: What is the basement price for a tradedown?

    • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

      Exactly! we cannot expect to get the king’s randsom that St. Louis got for RG3. Accepting to swap firsts, and recieve two 2nds or this years 2nd and a third next year is still the best situation for us going forward! Just be flexible Chiefs! We got A LOT going for us!

  • jpcokchief

    Geno will be a bust. trade with the Bills and build for the future. take best player available and get second round pick back. we need to build in be in an established position for when the donkeys lose Peyton

    • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

      Exactly, gain draft picks now, build competition at all positions, and we will become a playoff-caliber team for the next ten years. We simply do not need Geno Smith

  • Justin R Groth

    How bout that new RB rule?

    • Jim Harper

      Good rule but it does not just apply to running backs. Anyone that uses the crown of the helmut as a weapon.

      • Justin R Groth

        It’s hard to agree with this rule because its a “safety” rule that puts players at risk. when you cover up and lower your shoulders your head will go down. Also ANY rb is going to surge forward for a yrd or two if he can. meaning flag. As for could be risky for the RB, have you ever lowered your shoulders without lowering your head? It ends up sticking up and if accidental contact were to happen then there could be a broken neck on the field.

    • Danny W

      As a former high school running back I hate it. It’s how I protected my knee’s. I think the league is getting too soft.

      • Calchiefsfan

        I don’t get it. I played RB too and when I knew I was about to get gang tackled I would have to put my head down and plow forward or get it taken off.

        • Justin R Groth

          Right I played full back and the absolute worse thing I could do in short yard situations was to runwith my shoulders high. it guaranteed two things one I was going backwards two I was about to get my bell rocked. For a rule that is supposed to increase player safety this one puts players in extreme danger because some one is going to try NOT to put their head down and they might break their necks.

  • Outback Chief

    Here’s a plan, trade down with Buffalo or whomever and get a 2nd and 3rd this year and a 1st 2nd and 3rd next year.That gets us a 1st two 2nd’s and two 3rd’s for a starting QB seems fair to me. Given Reids track record in the 5th and 6th rd drafting guys like Andy Studebaker, Jason Kelce, Bret Celek,Joe Mays, Brian Rolle so I could expect great things from having two 2nd three 3rd rd picks this year and two 1st and two 2nd’s and two 3rds next year

    • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

      You have to be realistic!! There is no way in hell we could get that for Geno Smith. Yes, if Andrew Luck was available at #1 id agree with you, Geno has a lot of potential both ways, as a potential franchise QB and also as a BUST! Luck and RG3 were both 99% guarentees to be franchise QBs, that is why they warrented such ransom! We have to be realistic and can maybe expect to swap firsts with a team, and get two seconds in return. (unless someone in the mid-twenties decides to trade all the way up for him of course)

      • Outback Chief

        ha yes RGIII was worth two 1st and a 2nd to move up 4 spots I only want one 1st two 2nd and two measly 3rd’s to move up maybe 7-8 spots maybe more depending who wants it, besides they’re more desperate than we are for QB

        • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

          Believe me I hope you’re right! and the closer to the draft we get, the more teams will overpay. I see Buffalo or the Jet being the team that pulls the trigger because their fan bases are going to be demanding it! Here’s to hoping they bite on it and trade up! :)

          • Outback Chief

            Hey I’m not overly convinced that Geno is worth what I want but check out the new column which I’m sure you have already but I took it a step further and went to jimmy johnson draft value chart and look at what he values the first pick. And yes I hope they get all that and more …Go Chiefs

  • Danny W

    Nathan
    I think you’ve missed number 9 the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets friendo. I’m almost sure they’re done with Mark Sanchez. I’d say they would be happy to look for a franchise guy to help save Ryan’s career once again.

    • dominicscarlatti

      “Friendo…” did you learn that from Anton Shigur? Just wondering.

      • Danny W

        Is he the bad guy on the movie No Country for Old Men?

  • KCMikeG

    I think the Bills are the most desperate with the Cards a close 2nd by a hair over the Jags. My concern with the Bills is that their new HC Marrone coached Nassib at Syracuse which might lead to him waiting for his QB until the 2nd or 3rd round. The Jags can’t afford to have Gabbert struggle and fail w/o having a really good back up plan.

    The Cards are just fooling themselves about Stanton being a NFL starting QB. He has been injured most every year, the only time he moved out of being the THIRD string QB was when the two guys before him got hurt, his performances have been forgettable and he was cut by the Jets for Tebow who couldn’t even get on the field. Now Arians gives him $8.4M for 3 years and declares him their starter – Whatever – fools. And they have no plan B as they cut Kolb and still have to pay him $6M! They make our QB situation look fabulous!

    You left out the Jets who have the struggling Sanchez, Tebow & McElroy – Ugh!
    You also left out the Browns who have made it known that they are shopping both McCoy & Weeden. I think they may become our trade partner if they can find anyone silly enough to take either one of their QB’s.

    There are plenty of QB needy trade partners plus a few desperate for a starting LT so I believe our dynamic duo will pull off their biggest move of the offseason in a trade that positions us for making a run at the great/elite QB talent next year, replaces our Alex Smith picks and adds even more mid round picks.

    • Calchiefsfan

      I like what you’re saying, especially the last paragraph. I think next year is the time to make a move on drafting a franchise quarterback.

  • dominicscarlatti

    Buffalo would indeed seem to be the most likely partner. At #8, Warmack might be interesting.

    • Steve Blank

      if we trade down to eight….i would like to see us trade back again….say to 15-20 and get margus hunt…the DE that can play in either 3-4 or 4-3

  • berttheclock

    Shalid Kahn, the owner of the Jags, has a philosophy of doing business. He has said, “In life you come to a fork in the road. You can take the hard way or the easy way. I have found taking the hard way can be the better way”. He, also, has said he learned a lesson by over spending in FAcy, last year. Plus, he says he wants to emulate the methods used by the successful teams. Now, combine those thoughts with his hiring of Dave Caldwell to be his GM. DC was the Director of College Scouting for several years with the Falcons and he became their Director of Player Personnel, last season. He was involved with the Julio Jones trade up along with Dimitroff.
    Shalid Khan has shown since he began his bumper business that he will not sit still. He will hire and fire and make bold decisions in order to better his companies and his sports team. He was involved in watching Geno work out. If he really wants him, Caldwell will make the move. I just wish the Jags were much lower in the draft. Then, they would give up more picks for trading up.
    I still want a clone of Dick Vermeil out there who has decided to take Geno away from Micah and will give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th to move up to Number One as DV did in ’97 with the Rams to take Pace. But, as others have mentioned the real cream would be having a trade with a team which may not do well n 2013 and in the trade they will include their Number 1 for next year. Then, the selection of a franchise QB could fall the way of the Chiefs.

  • berttheclock

    In 2010, Paul Allen hired Pete Carroll as his HC and gave him power in hiring the GM. John Schneider was brought in from the Packers a week later. CH hired Reid and gave him a say in the hiring of John Dorsey, also, from the Packers. Since 2010, Schneider/Carroll have been involved with over 300 roster moves, all designed to improve the Seahawks into becoming a major contender. One thing for certain about the many moves made by them is they never fell in love with any player. Produce or go. I read of many cuts, rehires, cuts. Players were moved back and forth from the taxi squad like pin balls. PC would give any former Trojan player of his a chance and would cut them in a heart beat if he thought Schneider could find better. Even former first round picks were not sacrosanct.
    So, I do not expect anything done by our new regime to be etched in stone. Keep the faith.

    • cyberry

      Yep..Carroll told Taylor Mays..I’m going to need a safety if your around I’m going after you. Pete drafted Earl Thomas in the 1st Rd (I don’t blame him a bit)..May’s drop to San Fran in the 2nd..he was pissed.. Carroll told him..sorry but Thomas was a better player..

  • DieHard_ChiefsFan

    If we dont have a trade partner on Draft Day, I think we should still Draft Geno 1st overall. If Jacksonville feels that Geno will drop to them at #2 and we pick him up, they will be more willing to trade for him at that point. If we get no trade partners for him, let him compete for the 2nd spot this year. I think by picking Geno #1 overall would press the other teams expecting him to drop down the list to be forced pay more in trade for him on draft day.

  • Steve Blank

    if we trade down to eight….i would like to see us trade back again….say to 15-20 and get margus hunt…the DE that can play in either 3-4 or 4-3, and pick up a another pick or two later in the draft

  • Ribs61

    I think you missed a third reason the Jags would offer to trade places with us. If they think we are negotiation a deal with one of the more likely three trade partners (Philly, Arizona or Buffalo) they could offer to swap 1st picks with us and give us their second round pick, just to make sure no one leapfrogs them. It would be much cheaper for them to do that, if they want Geno, than to wait until the second and see who is left if we have a different trade partner.

  • http://profiles.google.com/johnbenjaminmoore John Moore

    If we imagined more complex trade scenarios, what would they look like?
    Arizona needs a QB, but they also need a LT. How about Albert and #1 for Larry Fitzgerald and #7? Chiefs would have the best receiving corps in the league. Someone would have to do the cap-hit math for both teams, but I’m pretty sure it is close.

    Buffalo will probably prefer Nassib, but they are in no position to lose out. If they want him, they will use their first pick on him, and may even trade up for him. If the Chiefs could trade down to #2, and Geno goes first, and there are still two teams high on Nassib (Arizona and Jets, perhaps), then the Chiefs might be able to trade down twice. Far fetched, but possible.

    Another creative Bills trade: Chiefs get #8, FS Jairus Byrd (franchised last week) and next year’s first- and third-rounders; Bills get #1 and Albert. Chiefs would have the best secondary in the NFL to neutralize Peyton Manning. Again, the cap-hit math should work.

    • http://profiles.google.com/johnbenjaminmoore John Moore

      According to spotrac.com, Fitzgerald costs $422,000 in cap space more than Albert. In 2012, the difference between the #1 rookie salary and the #7 was $1,389,000. So this trade would require less than 1 million of Arizona’s 12 million available cap space.

      A trade for Byrd would cost the Bills $2,912,000 + $1,700,000 for a total of $4,612,000 of its available 17.7 million available.

    • http://profiles.google.com/johnbenjaminmoore John Moore

      Jacksonville trade: Albert and #1 for Eugene Monroe and #2. Expensive for the Jaguars, but they are loaded with cap space.