Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Latest Alex Smith, Chiefs Trade Rumors Indicate Deal Will Be For 1 Draft Pick

The Alex Smith to Kansas City rumors are entering their third day and now the man who was shooting down rumors yesterday is helping fuel them today.

On Monday, Matthew Barrows of the Sacramento Bee shot down a Jason La Canfora report that the San Francisco 49ers and a mystery team had a trade deal that was “effectively complete” for Smith. Barrows’ report indicated that their was no deal in place and that the 49ers were still shopping Smith.

Today, while Barrows still maintains there is no deal in place, he is shedding more light on the situation, including that the 49ers expect to receive one draft pick for Smith.

From Barrows:

Alex Smith appears closer to leaving the 49ers next month after reports this past week linked him to the spot where many former San Francisco quarterbacks seem to end up – Kansas City.

League sources said Monday the 49ers are not locked into a deal but that team officials have told others at the scouting combine in Indianapolis they are confident a trade will be made and they plan to have 15 picks in the April draft.

As Barrows points out in his article, the 49ers currently have 11 draft picks but expect to receive three more picks from the NFL in March, as compensation for losing free agents last offseason. These picks, known as compensatory picks, begin in the third-round and are added to the end of each round. The NFL has a formula for awarding the picks that is based on the contracts received by the free agents a team loses, while also factoring in free agents signed.

The most important part of Barrow’s article, however, is that he sheds some light on the amount of compensation the 49ers believe they will receive for Smith. There have been some reports floating around, from less than reliable sources, that the deal would be for two picks. Barrows’ report, however, seems to indicate that the deal will be for just one pick. One 2012 pick.

If I had to guess, and this is pure speculation, I’d say the mystery team is either the Chiefs, Jets or Cardinals and that the deal is for a 2013 third round pick.

As I’ve said before, I can easily see the Chiefs offering up their third, which would be hard for any other NFL team to beat. The Chiefs hold the first pick in the third round and because teams like the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns do not have second round picks, KC’s third is essentially a late second-round pick.

This would work out great for the 49ers and wouldn’t hurt the Chiefs much at all because KC is expected to receive a third-round compensatory pick for the loss of Brandon Carr last offseason.

So the Chiefs would get a veteran QB for just moving back a few sports in the third round. For a team that currently has no viable options at QB, that isn’t such a bad move.

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