Jan 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey speaks during the press conference announcing his hiring at the University of Kansas Hospital Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

KC Chiefs 2013 Trade Options: It Takes Two to Tango


An opinion that I’ve seen growing in popularity is for the Chiefs to trade our #1 pick so that we can move down in the draft, pick a quarterback at a spot more commensurate with the quality of this year’s quarterback crop, and get three or four more picks in the process. I have to admit – this scenario would be a dream come true. But as in all things, it takes two to Tango.

Let’s take a look at just which team may want to do a deal with us. We’ll start by looking at the trade bait. Here are a few opinions about which players comprise the top five prospects in the draft this year:

Prospect Rank CBS Sports Gil Brandt, NFL.com Drafttek.com Chris Burke, Si.com
1 Luke Joeckel, OT
Texas A&M
Luke Joeckel, OT
Texas A&M
Luke Joeckel, OT
Texas A&M
Luke Joeckel, OT
Texas A&M
2 Bjoern Werner, DE
Florida State
Bjoern Werner, DE
Florida State
Bjoern Werner, DE
Florida State
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
3 Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama Star Lotulelei, DT
Utah
Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
4 Demontre Moore, DE
Texas A&M
Jarvis Jones, OLB
Georgia
Jarvis Jones, OLB,
Georgia
Demontre Moore, DE
Texas A&M
5 Dee Milliner, CB,Alabama Star Lotulelei, DT
Utah
Erik Fisher, LT
Central Michigan
Erik Fisher, LT
Central Michigan

As you can see, there’s actually a fair amount of consensus on at least three players:

  • Luke Joeckel, OT
  • Bjorn Werner, DE
  • Chance Warmack, OG

And all but one of the remaining players got multiple mentions.

We can wish for the “trade down” scenario as much as we want, but without a trading partner, all is for naught. Here’s how this might need to go down.

First and foremost, the Chiefs have to believe that they don’t need any of the players on this list for our top pick. For the sake of argument, let’s say that no one stands out that strongly.

Second, let’s look at the potential trade bait. I’m going to take Chance Warmack off the list, because it just doesn’t seem like guard is a position that anyone in their right mind wants to draft with the first pick. I’ll also take Eric Fisher off the list, because if a team wants an offensive tackle, they’ll pick Joeckel. Same thing with Demontre Moore – for a defensive end, a team would just trade up and get Werner. This is not to say that Joeckel is definitely better than Fisher or that Werner is definitely better than Moore. It’s just if a team is going to trade with us, they’ll be pursuing the best available player for a particular position. So here’s who’s left in our hypothetical scenario:

  • Luke Joeckel OT
  • Bjorn Werner, DE
  • Jarvis Jones, OLB
  • Dee Milliner, CB

Now let’s look at which teams are so desperate for an offensive tackle, a defensive end, a linebacker or a cornerback that they’d trade with us. I went to the drafttek.com site as well as BleacherReport.com. Both rank each position by the teams that need that position filled. From these two sources, here is the rather short list of the top four positions represented as top picks on our list, and teams that need those positions filled urgently:

Left Offensive Tackle Defensive End Outside Linebacker Cornerback
Arizona
Chicago
Green Bay
San Diego
St. Louis
Cleveland
Detroit
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Cleveland
New York Giants
St. Louis
New Orleans
Oakland
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay

For our prospective dance partner, I think we can rule out teams that are truly bad and need multiple players. At this point those teams need more picks, not fewer, in this fairly even draft class. That takes Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Philadelphia off the table.  Our small list is suddenly much smaller:

Left Offensive Tackle Defensive End Outside Linebacker Cornerback
Chicago
Green Bay
San Diego
St. Louis
Buffalo
Cincinnati
New York Giants
St. Louis
New Orleans
Tampa Bay

The best candidate for us, I think, is a team that meets all of the following criteria:

  • A desperate jones to fill that particular position because it is a huge, freaking obvious gap in their team
  • A feeling that they are one player away from the [fill in blank: playoffs, division title, conference title, Super Bowl] in 2013
  • A plurality of veteran players who only have 1-2 years left to make the big run

Applying this criteria, and especially the second one, we can eliminate St. Louis, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. our list now goes to this:

Left Offensive Tackle Defensive End Outside Linebacker Cornerback
Chicago
Green Bay
San Diego
New York Giants New Orleans

Of these five remaining teams, I’m going to axe San Diego. They fit all of the criteria, but there’s no way they’ll pull this trigger with a division rival. I’m also going to take off New Orleans, because Dee Milliner is great, but he’d have to be a Leon Sandcastle or a Darelle Revis to be a cornerback that goes first in the draft. Finally, I’ll remove the New York Giants, because when the Giants pick at 19, there will likely be a few good OLB’s available, or they could get the one they want by jumping up 5-6 slots, rather than 18 slots.

The moral of the story is no surprise. Left tackles are coveted. And so there you have it, my friends. We really have just two teams to trade with this year for our number one pick:

  • Chicago
  • Green Bay

Right now, Chicago has the 20th pick and the Packers have the 26th pick. My money is on the Packers. With Bryan Bulaga returning from injury at Right Tackle, a truly terrible season by current Left Tackle Marshall Newhouse and Aaron Rodgers in his prime, this trade may make sense for the Pack. The Packers also need a running back and center, but both are readily available through lower picks and free agency. A Luke Joeckel could put the Packers back in the Super Bowl. And I know this escaped none of you, but John Dorsey knows the Pack pretty well.

If we are going to find a willing trade partner, our path to success just may go through Green Bay. What do you think, Addicts? Can Dorsey persuade his old colleagues to trade with us?!

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  • Jarad

    Interesting breakdown, but thats based on a tesm having to give up a decent amount to jump to #1. If the Chiefs are targeting someone that they are sure won’t go till later and they dont have a need for any of the top prospects, why not lower the asking price? They dont need a kings ransom to trade back, Especially if theyre targeting the 15th ranked prospect. Trading back even 5-7 spots for an extra 3rd or 4th rounder makes sense if youre gonna take the same person anyways.

  • Chiefsfan

    I like the analysis, but I find it very unlikely that a team moves up that far in the draft. They would have to give up way to much, and the Packers covet their picks as much as any team. I think Arizona is a likely trade partner. I know they have a lot of needs, but they desperately need a LT. At 7 they run the risk of Joekel and Fisher being off the board. They could trade up for fisher, but if you are going to trade up, you’re going to trade up for the best player at that position.

    • John Woodley

      I agree, much more likely with ari.

  • Merlin_Arrowhead_Addict

    Green Bay would have to give up a ton to make this happen. What do you see a proposed trade look like?

    • Michael Shaw

      Not really Merlin. With the structure of the draft now after the new CBA, they could easily ask for the interested teams 1st and either a 3 &4 or 3 $ 5 to get extra picks this year. IMO of course. God know what these guys are thinking.

    • Danny W

      Thats what I’m wondering, anything is possible, but likely is another story.

  • berttheclock

    Good analysis, Miles, but, have you ever looked at the NFL Draft Value Chart by walterfootball? He assigns numbers to every draft pick beginning with 3000 points for Number 1. I believe a 26th is 700 points, so, according to the chart GB would have to make up 2300 points to even the trade.
    They use the example of a 3 team trying to move up to Number 1. As the 3rd selection is rated 2200 points, that team would have to make up the 800 point difference. In the example, walter suggests a 2nd worth 550 points and a 3rd worth 255 points to make up the needed 800. Therefore, for GB to make up 2300 points would, probably, require an additional 2014 pick and more lower picks, as well.
    However, one thing against the Packers dealing is their recent stated posiion of the need to become a younger team, thus, they might not want to give up extra draft picks.

    • john

      Bert, sometimes you’re just too much. I say that with respect and humor. I don’t see you on here enough. Can’t deal with the Star anymore so come by more often. I don’t comment often except when I see you here.

  • berttheclock

    Another point to consider, is, while, Joeckel may be considered the best of the lot and Eric Fisher improving, Lane Johnson of Okahoma and Manelik Watson of Florida State could have excellent combines and be more within the reach of GB.

  • john

    One other point to consider…the Chiefs already have the 34th pick. This trade gives them the 26th, only 8 behind what is currently their second pick.
    The obviousl goal for the Chiefs is to get more picks, but mostly to select a QB without making the stretch for using the first overall pick on one of these QB’s. They may as well wait until the second round, because Geno Smith, Barkley AND Glennon may very well be gone by the 26th, regardless of what the pundits say. Too many teams watched what “back-ups” turned into last year.
    Lastly, KC is not one of the teams that needs tons of picks because they have so many holes to fill. They need some quality in certain spots.

  • john

    PS… I think the Chiefs should take Joeckle and trade for Foles.

  • ArrowFan

    Geno will not be around at 20 either will Tyler. It looks to me like we fit allot of the criteria for a trade partner it is just we don’t need a LT we need a QB. Just pick the best one and move on.

    • john

      I agree and I don’t. Just re-sign or tag Albert so I agree, they do not need a LT. If the Chiefs pick one of these QB’s with the number one pick, and he fails, it will be one more thing the fans gripe about for years to come, and, more importantly, what’s the back-up plan?? There is a good chance none of these kids can step in and be effective like Luck, RG3, etc.
      That’s why I would prefer they trade for Foles AND take the best QB on the board with the number two pick, because I think they can get Foles with their third round pick. Just my take on it. Chiefs in a bad spot for a team with the top pick in the draft. Why couldn’t they suck this much last year????

  • GDL40

    GB wouldnt do that …. maybe Arizona. N I’m not sure Geno would even be there at # 7…. Realistically there is not one player that would make a team want to trade up to #1 bc any player can drop to 10th….unless Geno has a great combine, so in either scenario, we should just pull the trigger on Geno

    • Michael Shaw

      Not there for #7? So who do you think will take him #2-6? Jacksonville needs a pass rusher BADLY, so not going there since the new regime has already touted that they would build the team around Blaine Gabbert. The Raiders cannot afford to release Carson and even though the new regime may not be married to Palmer, they could let Pryor try his hand at running the offense and keep Carson, obviously with a restructured contract to free up cap space. The Eagles have three QB’s and Nick Foles may actually be the odd man out, so I doubt they pick up a QB at #4. The Lions of course have Matt Stafford, enough said! That leaves the Cleveland Browns, a team that moved up to get Brandon Weeden because they likely knew he would be gone before their pick in the 2nd round last year. They still have Colt McCoy, so I really don’t see them needing a QB. They may need OL, DL, LB, or other needs that are more important than the QB position. So of these teams, which one do you think takes Geno before AZ’s pick at #7?

      • GDL40

        Well it was made public that the new mngmt in Cleveland dsnt think highly of Weeden ….. I’m not an expert but that would be one option, cant count Oakland out…. I hope I am wrong , ideally we trade with AZ get at least another 2nd or 3rd and have Geno be available at the 7th spot…..and TAKE HIM…. but the main thing is, b4 we get ahead of ourselves, that I dnt see a team that would want to trade up to 1st ….. to get WHO ?

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Larry-Vandesande/1692334818 Larry Vandesande

        Both Jacksonville and Oakland would be interested in Geno if he’s there when they draft. He’s the highest-rated quarterback in the draft. Neither team is sound at quarterback. If Chiefs don’t take him No. 1, he’ll be gone by No. 4.

      • Jim Harper

        Actually Oakland does need Carson’s replacement and Jacksonville has a new regime that thinks Gabbert is not the man. Cleveland is also very likely for the same reason. New ownership is not thrilled with Weeden and McCoy is a back up. You are right about the Eagles, and Lions not being in play though. Also it takes a much lower trade partner that needs to move up that will give up good picks to do so.

    • Michael Shaw

      BTW, I like the idea of trading with AZ.

  • Michael Shaw

    Sorry guys, but I am still a firm believer that we can pick up Alex when he is released by SF, which they have more or less promised to do, so I don’t think picking up a QB #1 is a viable or smart option. My reasoning is that if you pick a guy #1 overall, who do we start initially at the beginning of the year while we wait for Geno (or any other QB) to get NFL ready, because you are CRAZY if you think Geno is NFL ready?!!! I am not saying that Geno won’t be a good or great QB eventually in the NFL. What I AM saying is that we need a QB to start day one for us this year. We ALL agree we don’t have a QB on this team right now that can get us very many wins, so if we draft a QB #1 he better be an Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson or Colin Caepernik, ready to start day one, type of QB and nobody has shown me anything that says ANY of the guys in this draft are that type of QB. When the combine is over, my opinion may change, but right now, I just don’t see ANY of these guys coming in and playing game 1 right out of the gate!! So we need a “stop-gap” QB like Alex or (insert name that won’t cost us too may quality draft picks this year) that can get us some wins, make us competitive and also teach whatever rookie we draft this year how to play in the NFL. I don’t want to draft a Geno Smith and throw him to the wolves like Houston did David Carr, Cleveland did Colt McCoy, etc…. We have enough talent on this roster that if we sign a guy like A. Smith, then we could still contend this year in our division. Based on what i saw last year, I am starting to think Peyton’s skills may be starting to decline. He threw a LOT more INT’s than he usually does last year.

    • john

      Why do you think SF will simply release Smith? They have no reason to. Too many teams need a QB and he is on top of the list. I’d have no problem if the Chiefs get him, but it will take a pick, but probably only a fourth or so.

      • Michael Shaw

        Because the 49ers publicly stated that they would release him if they could not get a trade done in a timely manner. I will try to find the article for your review.

        • john

          I know they’ve said that, but that’s kind of the point….there is no reason to believe they won’t get it done in a timely manner considering the teams who are interested in him. If teams like the Chiefs, Browns, Arizona, etc, go in a different direction, then they will, but then most of the “suitors” will have made other plans. We’ll see. I’d still rather give up a pick and get Foles.

    • GDL40

      I think they will end up releasing him, hope no team gets desperate, if we pick him up in FA I would be ok with it bu I still think we should draft a qb with our 1st or 2nd …. BUT I hope thw chiefs dont trade for him,

  • Spencer

    The eagles have an offensive line??? and don’t need a LT…what is this?????

    • john

      True that! Ask Vick if they have an offensive line.

  • berttheclock

    A bit off thread, but, there is an interesting article by Ian Rappaport over at cbssports/nfl about the combine. He says it is far more than just a venue for college players to perform as it comes down to a very large gossip center for NFL management. GMs can get feels about possible trades, or even stir the pot regarding free agents in trying to keep values down. So, look for possible misinformation emanating from Indy in the next few days.

  • Michael Shaw

    My fellow Chiefs Fans. I just read on NFL.com that the Bengals are looking to part ways with Rey Maualuga. Does anyone think he could be the perfect fit for our open MLB position? I thought for sure the kid had 1st round talent when he was drafted in 2009. Opinions?

    • KCMikeG

      Agreed. I like him for our SILB. He has the true thumper size, brings some badly needed attitude to our D and his tackles stats have improved every year. My favorite in the draft, Andrew Jackson WKY, has decided to stay in school so Rey would be a great pick up.

      ILB

    • Jim Harper

      No doubt he would be a good fit. Just depends on what the Bengals want for him. Hey Michael!

  • http://twitter.com/OHChief Mutty Sharfi

    I would love to trade our #1 for Jets #9 and Revis… can you imaging having Flowers and Revis… and at #9 we could still get a great player and possibly even a QB.

  • http://www.facebook.com/nick.starkey Nick Starkey

    what would they get in a trade with GB? 1st 2nd 4th? all late picks.. meaning theyd get a qb with that pick (26) or get lineman or wr.. and wait for a tyler bray maybe EJ manuel in late second?

  • Jim Harper

    You guys need to forget about the #7 spot. I agree with Miles that Green Bay or Chicago fit the profile of the most likely trade partner and in my opinion both #20 and #26 are too far down to get Geno. He will be gone by then. However, if the Chiefs goal is Foles and one of the lesser QB’s then they could definitely gain picks. All depends on the master plan.

  • Jim Harper

    One other thing Chiefs fans need to wrap their heads around. Stop comparing this draft to last years. Notd since 1983 has their been such a QB rich draft as last years. It just does not happen very often. Most of the experts agree that Geno can be a franchise QB. He just not Luck or RG3 ready and we are not likely to see one very soon. Sure Johnny football may be like that, but he is at least 2 years away and alot can happen between now and then. Just saying I think everyones expectations are a little high.

  • Andy

    To bad Al Davis isn’t still around

  • Miles Yi

    If the Chiefs are able to find a trade partner – and I agree with many of you – that is a huge IF – then we may be better served overall. Unlike that 1983 draft or last year’s draft, as Jim points out, this one doesn’t have a lot of superstars, but does have a lot of very good players. If we were able to pick up let’s say three immediate starters – an offensive lineman, a cornerback and a receiver – AND perhaps find a quarterback (like an Alex Smith or Matt Flynn or an early second rounder) that ends up the season as one of the top 15 QB’s in the league, would you take that as a win?