Analyzing Andy: Looking at the Chiefs New Head Coach

December 30, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid looks on against the New York Giants during the first quarter of an NFL game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

 

One Scott Pioli firing and a failed fat joke by Ed Werder later, the Chiefs made the hiring of Andy Reid as their next Head Coach official Friday evening. Whether this was a good hire or not has yet to be determined, but it is undeniably a big and bold – not to mention expensive – move by Clark Hunt that shows the fan base that he is willing to do what it takes to win and win now. Like when Jim Irsay fired Bill Pollian and his son last year from the Colts in the process of taking back his franchise, it seems that Hunt was determined to do the same.

Hunt, however, will not be the coach and will not be responsible for shaping this team in his own image, which is why I am turning my attention to Andy Reid, and breaking down his career with the Eagles into a few different categories, including stats, tendencies, etc. First and foremost, let’s begin with the wins/losses.

Andy Reid’s Record

In Reid’s 14 seasons as the Eagles head coach, he had a 130-93-1 record, good for a .583 winning percentage. To put that into comparison, Bill Belichick (18 seasons) has a .649 winning percentage, Jeff Fisher (18 years) has a .538 winning percentage, while fired head coaches Norv Turner (14 years) has a .483 winning percentage, and Lovie Smith (9 years) has a .563 winning percentage. In fact, only five teams have a better winning percentage than the Reid-lead Eagles over that same time frame: Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers and Ravens. Obviously, when you’ve been a head coach for as long as Reid and you have a record like his, it is impressive.

Included in those 130 wins are nine playoff seasons – 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, and 2010. Of those playoff years, the average number of victories during that time is 11. The five seasons Reid didn’t make the playoffs were his first year (5-11), 2005 (6-10), 2007 (8-8), 2011 (8-8) and last season with a 4-12 record, the worst of his tenure. If you’re paying attention, you’ll realize that Reid never had back-to-back losing seasons, something Chiefs fans should salivate about.

Andy Reid’s Offense

The Eagles offense under Reid – from McNabb to Vick – could more often than not be described as prolific. In eight of Reid’s seasons with Philly, the team was ranked in the top 10 for points per game; and in only three seasons were the Eagles not in the top half of the NFL in that category. If you are more of a yards-per-game connoisseur, they were in the top 10 for that stat seven times.

A reason for this is probably the offensive philosophy Reid follows: the West Coast Offense. And while Reid seemed to be a progressive in recognizing the NFL was becoming a pass-first league when he took over the reins in Philly, it’s actually been a criticism I’ve heard from disgruntled Eagles fans over the last couple of seasons. The most repeated criticism is the utilizing, or lack thereof, of LeSean McCoy. Well, since I watch “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and know that Eagles fans can’t always be trusted, I decided to do a little research of my own.

Under Reid’s guidance, the Eagles attempted passes on just over 57% of their offensive play calls. To put that into perspective, the Chiefs have attempted passes on about 53% of their plays during that same time frame. The difference between those two numbers is 550 pass attempts, otherwise known as one full season by a very busy quarterback. But that’s just known as the West Coast Offense, and isn’t out of the ordinary anymore – the league is averaging pass attempts on 56.4% of plays this season, highest in NFL history for a season.

It won’t produce, however, to the rushing clip that Chiefs fans have been accustomed to. In Reid’s tenure, the Eagles offense only produced a 1,000 yard rusher six times: 1999, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011. Those six comprise of three different runners – Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, and most recently LeSean McCoy. Jamaal Charles has had three 1,000 yard seasons in the last four seasons, so yeah …

As far as the utilization of McCoy: the running back averaged about 17 rush attempts per game in 2012, 18.2 in 2011, 13.8 in 2010, and 9.7 in 2009. Plus, over those four seasons, McCoy added 1,588 receiving yards; running backs that can catch the football out of the backfield is essential to a Reid team. For comparison, Charles has averaged 14.9 carries a game, not including his injury-shortened 2011 season, since 2009. Compared to McCoy’s 14.7 carries per game average, I think the Chiefs might have a better case for being livid over the under-utilization of Charles.

I did recognize a correlation, however, between rushing attempts and 1,000 seasons for the Eagles. When Reid has allowed the team to attempt a minimum of 415 rushes in a season, the Eagles are 6 for 8 on producing 1,000 yard rushers. The two seasons that didn’t happen, the leading rushers had 936 yards and 613 yards. And if you’re curious about how those six seasons that produced 1,000 yard rushers went, the team averaged 8.8 wins. So running the ball doesn’t necessarily translate into dominance for a Reid-lead offense, but it can’t hurt to have one of the best backs in the NFL on his new team. As Bill Williamson, the AFC West blogger for ESPN, said earlier today: Reid must ride Jamaal Charles.

Andy Reid’s Drafts

As the SB Nation Eagles draft stated earlier, while preparing Chiefs fans for their new head coach, Reid “sees the NFL through the prism of the pass.”  That means Reid loves getting guys that can contribute to the passing game – WR’s, offensive lineman – and can harass the passing game – edge pass rushers, cornerbacks. Reid’s draft history supports this thought.

In Reid’s first draft with the Eagles, he took quarterback Donovan McNabb with his first selection, number two overall. Since that 1999 draft, the Eagles used seven first round selections on players that matched the above criteria – two offensive linemen, two defensive ends, two wide receivers, and one defensive back. Not to mention the number of these same positions the Eagles have selected after the first round – Trent Cole, DeSean Jackson, Mike Kelce, Jason Avant, Kevin Kolb, Sheldon Brown, Nick Foles, Vinny Curry, etc.

As Bill Barnwell from Grantland pointed out in his article about Andy Reid’s legacy in Philly “Each of Reid’s first seven drafts after he joined the organization produced at least one Pro Bowl player, with those first seven drafts producing 16 Pro Bowl appearances from eight players.”

Will Andy Reid take a quarterback number one overall with the Chiefs this April? I think Reid would lose all of his good will from Chiefs fans if he doesn’t.

Andy Reid’s Free Agency

You might remember when the supposed “Dream Team” was christened in Philly a couple of years back after several big free agents were brought in. Most of these free agents follow the same passing “prism” that his draft record shows: Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Jason Babin. Before them were Asante Samuel, Javon Kearse, Jon Runyan, Jason Peters and Terrell Owens (DMC, Peters and Owens actually being products of a trade, but I’ll still include them in this free agency section). And let’s not forget Reid’s willingness to bring in Michael Vick once released from prison; granted it’s a move that looked much better two years ago then it does today.

It seemed like Philly was always a big player in the free agent market, and whether that was because of ownership or Reid himself, I’m not sure. But if Clark Hunt is as serious about winning as most fans in KC now think he is, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reid gets to be just as aggressive in the free agent market, both acquiring and trading players, as he was in Philly; for better or worse.

Andy Reid in the Playoffs

Reid’s work in the playoffs is very impressive. He has a 10-9 record in the postseason, including taking the Eagles to five Conference Championship games and one Super Bowl. And while the Eagles haven’t won a playoff game since January 11th, 2008, I think all Chiefs fans can agree that ain’t too bad.

For those knocking Reid’s inability to win it all, I tend to agree with Bill Barnwell, a contributor to Grantland, when he wrote “Particularly bitter Eagles fans will argue that Reid needed to win a Super Bowl to justify his existence, but that argument doesn’t carry a ton of weight these days. How many people have either mentioned or noticed without saying it that the most important thing about the NFL playoffs is merely getting in? The Giants have made a living off of limping through the regular season before dominating in two different postseason runs. If it is really that much of a crapshoot, shouldn’t we be crediting Reid for gaming the system properly and getting as many cracks at the postseason as possible as opposed to lining up to attack him for only reaching the Super Bowl once?”

For perspective, Reid’s playoff winning percentage is .526. Tony Dungy’s was .474, Jeff Fisher’s is .455, while Marty Schottenheimer’s was .348 (ugh).

Questions I have about Andy Reid

How many changes are going to accompany Reid’s presence in Kansas City? I’m not talking about the General Manager position, but potential roster changes. Reid always ran a 4-3 defense in Philly, does that mean he plans on running one in Kansas City? And if he does, do the Chiefs have the personnel on the roster to make the switch back? With all the talent the Chiefs have on defense – which was put on display when the Pro Bowl roster was announced – Reid should have no problem attracting defensive coordinator candidates.

Another, and my main concern actually, is if Reid is emotionally or mentally fatigued and if that will affect him this season. After all, it was less than a year ago that Andy’s son, Garrett, was found dead of an accidental heroin overdose on August 5th, 2012. Reid learned of the tragedy on a Sunday and returned to practice on Wednesday. That means Reid has taken two days off since his son died, and as a head coach, you wonder how that might affect him now and how it affected him last season in the Eagles 4-12 year which lead to Reid’s termination. Nobody knows better than Andy what he’s going through and what he’s capable of doing and dealing with; just thinking about myself and how I would deal with something like that, I’m not sure if taking some time off wouldn’t be in his best interest. But everyone grieves in different ways, so who am I to question his decision. I just hope that fatigue I think might be there doesn’t manifest itself with this Chiefs team, and that a change of scenery is all he needs to feel rejuvenated.

Well, I hope you enjoyed reading about the Chiefs new head coach! Whether you agree with the decision or not, it’s a done deal, so we might as well enjoy the change. After all, Pioli IS gone. Long live the Chiefs!

Topics: Kansas City Chiefs

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  • Cha-iefs

    Ed Werder is a total ass-hat.

    • http://powellbailbonds.weebly.com/ big chief

      Agreed!

    • Danny W

      What he do or say?

      • Nathan Bramwell

        It’s hyperlinked in the text about Werder.

        • Danny W

          Okay got it. That guy’s an idiot.

  • KCinTX

    Nice read about a very interesting move by Clark. Sadly I am not emotionally moved by this. Because of the extreme ups and downs over last 6 years. I don’t trust this organization too make a good long term move anymore. It looks like a strong move but so did Pioli, Haley and RCA. Only time will tell. Hope this works out for all of us this time.

  • Guest

    1st and foremost…can we get an app update so we can comment from our phones (or at least read the comments)??? i love this site, but am rarely on a computer…but i had to get to mine to run off these numbers that were ignored…

    say he averages 8.8 wins w/ a RB rushes over 1,000 yds? he’s 66-61 the last 8 years…less than that.

    Good news: he beats bad teams.

    Bad News: he doesn’t beat winning teams. 24-42 vs winning teams in his ENTIRE tenure (.364)
    He’s 11-24 vs winning teams the last 8 years (under .333)

    Furthermore, he’s 2-14 vs winning teams in the AFC…. .125 winning %

    in fact, only ONE TIME in his entire tenure w/ the Eagles was he over .500 vs winning teams…2002…he went 3-2 vs winning teams.

    I’m not 100% against this hire, but I want people to understand what they are getting. He only gave Westbrook over 200 carries 3x in his career. I’ve been living in philly since 2004 (NOT AN EAGLES FAN…life long chiefs fan from KC)…Reid does under utilize the RB. Especially within the flow of a game. Charles could be ripping the defense and Reid will not keep feeding him.

    Gotta stay 3-4 D. Get an OC, and ideally someone that can draft…

    here’s a breakdown of Reid 1st round Draft picks…

    1999 – McNabb (hard to argue)
    2000 – Corey Simon (made pro bowl, but over Brian Urlacher 3 picks later)
    2001 – Freddie Mitchell (bust) (over Reggie Wayne 5 picks later)
    2002 – Lito Shepphard (good pick imo)
    2003 – Jereome McDougl (another bust a pick before Troy Polamalu…which they didn’t need b/c they had Dawkins)
    2004 – Shawn Andrews (played well, couldn’t stay healthy)
    2005 – Mike Patterson (decent starter)
    2006 – Broderick Bunkley (bust) (over Antonio Cromartie, Tamba Hali, Jonathan Joseph)
    2007 – (traded 1st rounder, which they used to get Kevin Kolb)
    2008 – no 1st rounder
    2009 – Jeremy Maclin – decent player…oh ya, picked 4 spots before Percy Harvin
    2010 – Brandon Graham (average player) taken before the no-brainer Earl Thomas, and JPP (same listed college position as Graham and picked 2 spots later)
    2011 – Danny Watkins – can’t stay healthy, can’t knock it
    2012 – Fletcher Cox – may be good, hard to tell w/ that mess of a defensive scheme HE IMPLEMENTED by hiring the D line coach before D coordinator

    For those tracking Tom Heckert – he was VP of Player Personnel from 2004-2009, and director of player personnel 2002-2003

    I know Reid has got some late 1st rounders, but man, his track record is BAD. 3 pro bowlers in the 1st round in 14 years.

    During that Same stretch, Chiefs have had 6 pro bowlers from the 1st round

    I think he’ll get some good free agents. I think we’ll win more games under him, but he needs to let someone else be in charge of drafting, which is what I’m most concerned with.

    Side note – he talks down to local media in philly and sucks up to national guys. so unless he really changes…look forward to that.

    either way – he’s not Pioli. now get rid of Cassel and draft a QB w the 1st pick.

    GO CHIEFS.

    • jpopejoy

      not sure why it says Guest…it was posted by me…

      • Nathan Bramwell

        Well whoever you are I appreciate it!

    • Nathan Bramwell

      Good stuff. I only had so much time to do my stats, so I’m happy you took the time to expand on them.

    • GEEEENOOOOO

      kc was also picking WAAAAAY higher in the draft during that time than reid was. so its not at all a fair comparison with pro bowl players from rd 1

      • jpopejoy

        Not True…

        of the 6 chiefs probowlers, only 1 was a top 10 pick (Berry)…
        DJ, Tamba, Tait were all mid 1st
        LJ and Bowe Late 1st

        so the “drafting earlier” is only half true. 2 of Eagles top 10 picks were pro bowlers.

        During the 14 years under Reid the Eagles averaged picking 16.8. Chiefs averaged 14.8 during that time…

        • majher

          kc had more chances at higher picks. the fact that those werent is irrelevant

          • jpopejoy

            they aren’t irrelevant. KC had 3 top 10s, Philly had 2 top 10s and the averages are close. You have to at least be GOOD to make a probowl. Also, I mention Pro Bowlers bc the article did. Seems like you are trying to pick a fight. I merely spent the better portion of my 1st cup of coffee of the day looking up stats to share. process how you wish.

        • majher

          and why are you using pro bowl players as a way to evaluate talent. berry got named this year. what ajoke

    • toperspective

      Very good. However, looking at 1st rounders only gives you part of the picture. How about the rest of his drafts? Was he getting pro bowlers from the later rounds? Any late round finds? Unfortunately, I’m too lazy to look up the answer.

      • jpopejoy

        1st off, let me correct myself…4 probowlers from 1st rounds for reid vs 6 for KC…

        “Each of Reid’s first seven drafts after he joined the organization
        produced at least one Pro Bowl player, with those first seven drafts
        producing 16 Pro Bowl appearances from eight players.”

        6 – Donovan McNabb (1st rounder)
        2 – Brian Westbrook (3rd rounder)
        2 – Shawn Andrews (1st rounder)
        1 – Corey Simon (1st rounder)
        2 – Lito Shepphard (1st rounder)
        1 – Trent Cole (5th round in 2005)
        1 – Michael Lewis (2nd Rounder)
        1 – Quintin Mikell (undrafted)

        other probowlers in reid are HE DRAFTED…

        Desean Jackson (2 probowls) (early 2nd round)
        LeSean McCoy (1 probowl) (2nd round)

        thats it. i may be missing one (it’s a lot of info to get through), but i think that’s basically the list.

        4 probowlers in the 1st round, 6 not in the 1st…10 probowlers total in 14 years of drafting. for a total of 19 pro bowl appearances

        Chiefs during that time…
        5 – Brian Waters – undrafted
        2- Jamal Charles – 3rd Round
        2- Dante Hall – 5th round
        2- Derrick Johnson 1st round
        2 – Larry Johnson – 1st Round
        1 – Jared Allen – 4th round (but a multiple pro bowler we traded)
        2 – Tamba Hali – 1st Round
        2 – Eric Berry – 1st Round
        1 – Gary Stills – 3rd Round
        1 – Dwayne Bowe – 1st round
        1 – dustin colquitt – 3rd round

        for Comparison

        Eagles Probowlers – 10 for 19 appearances

        Chiefs Probowlers – 11 for 21 appearances

        After 1st round:

        Eagles Probowlers – 6 for 9 appearances

        Chiefs Probowlers – 6 for 12 appearances

        So essentially, you’re looking at ONE perrenial Pro Bowler Reid drafted. I’ll give it 1.5 b/c Westbrook would’ve been had Reid used him properly. Guy was a stud.

        He’s a good coach, but you take away a FRANCHISE QB (which he had in McNabb) and the numbers are pretty telling.

        here’s hoping he can get a franchise qb!

        • toperspective

          Good analysis. However, although pro bowlers drafted are an important part, they are only part of the equation. You also have to consider FA’s signed and the performance of those that aren’t pro bowlers yet are key members of the team. Having 5 pro bowlers in 2012 is great but I’m more concerned about 2-14. This team wasn’t even competitive on many Sundays. Also KC has usually drafted much higher that Phil. I hope he brings in a good GM/personnel team and I agree a franchise QB is critical.

          • jpopejoy

            I mentioned above the Chiefs averaged picking 2 spots higher than the eagles during that stretch.

            Key members is obv. a huge part of the equation, but franchise QB is all that matters.

            oh, and also, Eagles spend serious money in FA…chiefs haven’t proven that under Clark Hunt yet…

            chiefs were 2-14 b/c they were putrid at the 3 most important positions in football…QB, HC, GM. Hopefully Reid can take care of the 1st 2

          • toperspective

            Since Reid is apparently calling the shots, hopefully he can take care of all 3.

    • sidibeke

      KC doesn’t get national guys, so maybe he can suck up to the locals.

    • http://twitter.com/biglump007 Leon Ritz

      Your hindsight is amazing.

  • chiefin’ainteasy

    When healthy, Charles and McCoy’s number of carries are similar. We all are afraid of giving 350 carries to Charles beacuse of his size and ending his career. I think Reid’s offense will be perfect for Charles and he may get a few more touches and touchdowns with as much as he should be involved in the pass game. My biggest worry about the run game under Reid is I can’t ever remember him having a bruiser to get those short yardage situations.

    As for QB I really hope they draft one, rather be Geno in the first, or like Barkley, Wilson, Glennon or even Bray in the 2nd or 3rd. Alex Smith reminds me too much of Cassel, tho better, just very limited at what he can do and for Flynn or Cousins I’m not sold. Maybe its that I just want the Chiefs to develope their own guy. If they decide to wait on until the 2nd for a QB, does anyone have a problem with them drafting a CB in the 1st? Dee Milliner from Alabama is high on most ‘experts’ lists. I know most around here are high on Te’o but I just dont see MLB being as high of a need as CB or even DE.

    • Nathan Bramwell

      Just depends on what QBs will be available in the 2nd. Honestly, of those QBs you listed, I’m not sold on them being available even early 2nd round. QBs always go fast and often. But we’ll know more closer to the draft.

      • Brody Hall

        There would be plenty of QB’s by round 2… Not a lot of teams who need to draft QB what so ever this season let alone in round 1… Geno will not fall 2 round 2 though. Trade back a bit and still Pick Geno then

        • chiefin’ainteasy

          Trading down a handful of picks and still being able to get Geno would be ideal, even if you only collect a 2nd or 3rd rounder you still get your guy and that extra pick. I think someone would take him number 1 even if KC wasnt going to pick there. He’s a reach at 1 but QB’s are reached on all the time.

          • KCMikeG

            “I like Geno and think it could work very well for us. If we do I am totally on board for selecting another QB in the 3rd or 4th round. But try this one on for size. How about trading out not down. Let’s trade out of our #1 pick for a #1 next year and a 2nd this year. Take QB Boyd (better fit for Reid’s offense than Geno) and CB Xavier Rhodes FSU in the 2nd round. Then if things don’t work out we are positioned to go after Manziel next year with two #1′s and give up 2015′s #1 and whatever else it takes to get it done. Still have Boyd and if he has worked out could be traded for another 1st rounder or be a fantastic back up QB. So what do you think?”

        • GEEEENOOOOO

          see this is an utter joke. Seriously. can you honestly tell us that ALL THE QB’s ranked in rounds 2-3, are identical? the same? doesnt matter where you pick them, or who it is, as they are all quality 2nd-3rd round picks? I mean REALLY? you believe this garbage?

        • toperspective

          That’s the strategy that I would like to see. Or else take a stud OL such as Joeckel and see if you can trade up for another late first round pick to take a QB. Their 2nd pick has good value since it’s at the top of the round. Perhaps a 2nd and 3rd would be enough to move up to 20 or so. Bad luck for the Chiefs since the QB class is very weak this year.

    • Chris

      Cornerback wouldn’t be a top priority if we resigned Brandon Carr.

      • chiefin’ainteasy

        That’s true but he wanted as much as Flowers after he had, IMO, one good year in KC. I found him very average his first couple of years and I think it’s wise they didnt pay him his asking price. 5-6 mil a year would have sounded about right. But they did let him walk and its a large hole that no one talks about.

        • Adrian Morales

          I agree they need 2 or 3 cb and a safetyjones from ga just declared today we need more pass rush

    • jpopejoy

      i can agree re: waiting for 2nd to take Barkely (who is my choice). Also, if we don’t take a QB #1, i think we take Star from Utah. We’re likely letting go of Dorsey and Jackson. Would be great to put Poe and Star next to each other. I don’t think a “lock down” DB is avail in this draft…could be wrong tho

  • GEEEENOOOOO

    better take a qb at 1, if they dont, better move back into the 1st for one

  • toperspective

    Good article. I just hope he is able to secure a top notch DC.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.aldridge.73 Jonathan Aldridge

    so what happens with gary gibbs and brian daboll? i would kinda like to see gibbs come back but no way on daboll

    • Justin R Groth

      I agree gibbs knows the players and since reid is mostly an offensive guy it would be nice to keep the same scheme the players are familiar with or even an attacking 3-4 under gibbs would be nice

  • http://www.facebook.com/genemyuk Gene Yuknis

    lets hope the walrus doesn’t get a geno smith tatoo anytime soon!!!

  • RollaChief

    APY, Nathan. All-Purpose Yards. You included information about only rushing yards, Unfortunately, missing APYs misses about 60% of the West Coast Offense. Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy all figured heavily in the passing game, Westbrook accounted for over 1,200 APY each year from 2004-2008. In many ways, you’re comparing apples to oranges. My guess is Jamaal’s APYs will go through the roof in Reids’ system, and Reid will also know how to use Hillis as a pass-catching fullback. At last–a system that will effectively use the current Chiefs’ player strengths! I’m looking forward to the 2013 season.

    • jpopejoy

      we have Hillis another year?

      • sidibeke

        If we want him, I imagine we can, but he will be an FA. He was on a 1 year contract. I don’t know how well he figures into a Reid offense, though.

        • RollaChief

          Thanks very much for the clarification, sidibeke. Given the info that Hillis is a FA, I doubt he’ll be back either. Have to find a pass-catching FB!

        • Danny W

          We’ve got a pretty good fullback so why not just use him or draft a change of pace guy. What happened to Gray anyway that guy looks good I guess if he can stay healthy. Draughn doesn’t look bad.

  • http://www.facebook.com/corey.lande Corey Wayne Lande

    We need to hire Jim Tomsula before anyone else snags him for a DC. He’s the d line coach for the 49ers, they operate a 3/4 system that the players would acclimate to very easily, and would compliment the Reid offense. I mean have you seen the 49ers dline?! Absolute monsters … plus Tomsula served as an interim hc when singletary was fired. So reid could give him complete autonomy operating the d. We would really be a mean looking team.

  • majher

    tired of emotionally fatigued. if I died as a kid, Id expect my father, and I know my father, would keep working, as that is what he loves to do. it would not slow him down. people need to stop telling him what to do and stay out of his personal life

  • Outback Chief

    Jeff Fisher’s record is far superior I wish Clark would’ve taken his diapers off last year

    • Nathan Bramwell

      I’m not sure if the numbers support that.

  • Matt Finucane

    What a weird, lame joke by Werder. Weight limit? Really?

    • http://www.arrowheadaddict.com Patrick Allen

      Yeah he apologized on Twitter later. Cause Werder is so attractive.

      • Danny W

        I was told by a reliable source that it’s mustache envy

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