Nov 23, 2012; Ames, Iowa, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) drops back to pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. West Virginia defeated Iowa State 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Chiefs’ Optimal Draft Order

With a 1-10 record, there’s not much left to cheer for, except for the macabre – hoping for heads to roll, specifically Pioli’s and Crennel’s. The only silver lining is that because of our consistently extreme ineptitude, we now control our own destiny for the top pick in the draft.

Anyone want a quarterback?

Here’s an alphabetical list of some of the top QB prospects, with “best available player” rankings from a smattering of sources, all reputable:

  • Matt Barkley, USC: 3, 4, 17, 18, 23
  • Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 13, 69
  • Colin Klein, Kansas State: 7, 291
  • Geno Smith, West Virginia: 3, 5, 9, 10, 15, 24
  • Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 8
  • Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, 13, 22, 27, 44

As you can see, opinions are all over the map at this early stage, and there’s a lot to be sorted out over the coming months. The notable thing here though is that no one is projecting a QB as the first or second best player. That means if and when the Chiefs draft first, we’ll either have to trade down a few slots or overpay the quarterback we so desperately need.

We find ourselves in that uncomfortable purgatory of:

A. Wanting to win because that’s who we are as fans;

B. Wanting to lose so we retain the first pick; and

C. Wanting to win just a little bit, so maybe we get the 2nd or 3rd pick, not the 1st pick.

Last week, I was definite on the C Train – let’s just win one or two games so we drop down a tad in the draft, where most of the quarterbacks will be. Now I’m not so sure. First of all, winning “one or two more games” rolls off the tongue easily, but that’s going to be near impossible for this team. Second, let’s factor in our competition.

Here are the teams that could use a quarterback. I’ve divided them into two camps: those that may have a quarterback they could live with, but would take a QB in the first round if it was just the right person at just the right position. We’ll call this group the “Can’t Live with Sanchez, But We Paid Him So Much” group. The second camp are the teams that are 200%, full-on desperate for a QB and need to draft one now or there will be a revolution in their home towns. We’ll call this group the “Clark-Hunt-Kind-of-Desperation” group. Here’s where I think teams are, with their draft order if the season were to end today (Oh Dear Lord, please make the season end today):

“Can’t Live with Sanchez, But We Paid Him So Much” Camp

  • 3rd Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
  • 4th Pick: Oakland Raiders
  • 5th Pick: Cleveland Browns
  • 8th Pick: Buffalo Bills
  • 12th Pick: New York Jets

“Clark-Hunt-Kind-of-Desperation” Camp

  • 1st Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
  • 2nd Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
  • 11th Pick: Arizona Cardinals

One observation before we get into the analysis here – this preseason, I was definitely in the camp of “great defense + killer running game + game-managing quarterback = deep run into the playoffs.” Looking at this list above, it’s so striking how that formula just doesn’t work anymore. Eight of the twelve worst teams in the league are terrible largely because they have a terrible quarterback.

Looking at this list, I’m moving to the A Train – we need the top pick in the draft. The top five teams in the draft all could use a quarterback, and two of them, desperately so. We have to control our own destiny here, or we may end up with the 2nd or 3rd best QB prospect in a year in which quarterbacks are not highly rated. I’d rather have our Chiefs in that top position, even if we end up overpaying, because bottom line: we need a quarterback. I’ll trust our new general manager and coach – whoever those guys are – to do the research and draft the right guy.

Does that mean we purposefully lose games from here on out? Of course not. But having the first pick takes a bit of the hurt off of what may happen over the next five games.

What draft pick do you want, Addicts, and who’s your quarterback of choice?!

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  • DrWillez

    What we need to do us be honest with ourselves accept we aren’t winningthe super bowl next year either. So wee need to give (hopefully) our new GM and head coaching staff sometime and draft the best defensive players in this years draft, minus a teachable Qb prospect and a veteran Qb.So we can put the best defensive team in history on the field and shut down every team we come across we all know the best offense is a good amazing defense

  • Patrick Allen

    The Chiefs have got to keep losing. This is essential. The only circumstances under which I want them to win are circumstances in which they still get the #1 pick. Go Jags! Go Eagles! Go Browns! Go Chiefs.

    • Norman Gunn

      I am terrified that we are going to win 2 out of the next 3 games. I do not want to lose for the 1# overall pick but I do want to for the increase chance of the firing of Pioli. What is scary is the defense still has top ten defensive talent. Flowers is due a pick 6, DJ is due a pick 6, and also Tamba is due a strip sack. I can see the defense getting hot just like last year when everyone thought our team was dead at 5-8. So far Quinn is still performing like a below average QB but what makes him better than Cassel is he has the arm to take the shots deep. He did it against Denver and O-Line had its best game of the season because the we kept the defense honest. I would not be surprised if we win out the season based of of run game, deep throws, and great defense, plus added that Denver will rest Manning in the last match up.

  • Drewfish

    In my best opinion, i think the best choice for KC is to have the 1st pick, then instead of picking a unworthy QB, or another defensive line bust, (we really need a STUD OL) otherwise we should trade down, acquire more 2nd and 3rd rounds…we have had a lot of success/output from those pics in recent drafts and are playing very well. Im not saying trade down to 10th or 15th, but there will be teams wanting to move up to take someone, I believe we can get a good early first rounder all while getting more mid 2nd and 3rd rounders. GO CHIEFS!

    • smh

      this is exactly what has lead the chiefs to not having a franchise qb. to not being able to groom a young qb.
      its at the point where if you finally get that pick, you pass? I mean really? because the qb class doesnt have an obvious andrew luck, doesnt mean its not a worthy qb class

  • Travis Forsyth

    i shouldn’t do this, because every time i openly announce my predictions they don’t happen, but damn it here it goes, We draft Geno Smith in 2013 and finish with a 6-10 record. everyone will be trashing geno, calling him a bust and what not but in 2014, geno takes the chiefs to a 10-6 record and wins the division (manning will be gone by then.) for the first time since 2010. kc will earn a wildcard spot where they’ll advance to the divisional round where they lose. in 2015, the chiefs become red hot going 14-2 earning home-field advantage through out the 2015 playoffs. long story short the chiefs will go and win Super Bowl 50….

    • Doc

      I like the way you think in your prediction! Very possible scenario provided the GM and coaching staff change too.

      • Chief Hokie

        Forsyth to Forsythe connection right here

  • Chief Hokie

    Logan Thomas is returning to VT to finish out his senior year so he’s not an option. Also, I seriously doubt any team will trade for our #1 pick seeing as there is nobody worth it. We need to pick either Geno Smith, Tyler Wilson, or Matt Barkley. We finally have a shot at the best QB available and it is time we take one.

  • Kyle H.

    i really dont want Matt Barkley, USC QBs havnt looked to good in the NFL, only decent one is Carson Palmer, all the others have sucked. i would be really excited to get Geno Smith. but i wouldnt mind them taking the best player on the board, then trade up or draft a QB with their 2nd round pick. i would like to see them do what the Bangles did a couple of years ago with AJ green an Andy Dalton

  • sidibeke

    Recently, I’ve been wondering if we shouldn’t draft the best player on the board at 1 or at least one worthy of a top pick (Te’o?) and either trade back into the 1st round or take a QB in the 2nd. Crazy?