Realistic Belief In The KC Chiefs

by Chiefs

My favorite bartender went to Vegas last week.   I took the opportunity, as I often do when a friend* is going to Vegas, to lay some bets down at the sports book.  My boy Nick Diaz over GSP?  Check.  Chael Sonnen over Brian Stann?  Check.  Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl?  CHECK. 

*Did I just list a bartender (who I never hang with outside the bar) as my friend?  Shit.  Social life just hit a new low.  Next step down the rung: online gaming.  Check back with me at this time next year.

I’m told there was laughter when the bet was placed, although that may have been a playful exaggeration.  To people on the east coast, the Chiefs are a joke.  Synonymous with the Royals.  I used to bristle at that attitude, but since we haven’t won a playoff game since before The Shawshank Redemption came out and we’re once again leading the league in cap space*, I can sort of see their point.  Whatever.  The odds were 40-1, which is an unbelievably sweet bet for a division champion in my opinion.  If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, your boy Big Matt will pocket 2 Gs**.  I gotta think that would go down as one of the top 5 best moments of my life.  Pretty sure it would edge out that awesome double filet-o-fish I had at McDonalds last lent.

*REALLY looking forward to 2013 and that cap floor.  I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve got a feeling when Clark Hunt is legally obligated to spend at least 90% of the salary cap, he may very well do it.

**The following people will be receiving  Big Matt fan club t-shirts if I win that 2 grand: Paddy, Double D, Jeremy, Lyle, TIDL, Block Eater, The Centaur, Greens, Jackie Rubbinson, Danny W, Victor’s daughter, my grandma, Clark Hunt, Sweet Ron, Mo-Leg, and Justin Houston.   Also probably the guy at the corner store who’s always smiling like a pervert.  I like the cut of his jib. 

I made the bet because I think the Chiefs can win.  Allow me to repeat that: I think the Chiefs can win the Super Bowl this year.  How’s that for a negative nancy? 

I should clarify here that I don’t think its likely.  But we have the best offensive weapon in the game, a great young secondary and a pass rush that should be incredible if Todd Haley can get out of its way (MORE JUSTIN HOUSTON AND WALLY GILBY PLEASE).  Thats enough to give any team a shot. 

more after le jump:

I’m still not sure what to make of this preseason.  Are we caring about this?  I mean its just preseason, right?  And yet, there were some undeniably troubling sights.  Andy StudebakerBarry RichardsonTony Moeaki.  Our offense.  Our defense.  Todd Haley’s bizarre strategy.  I’m certainly not going to poo-poo anyone thats worried.  I’m a bit worried myself.

Those of you still angrily defending Haley’s training camp and preseason need to slow down and take a deep breath.  Sarcastically arguing against straw men doesn’t get our discourse anywhere, and neither does inventing excuses for everything Haley does.  Our coach has made some pretty obvious mistakes in his time here.  Its OK to admit that.  Every coach makes mistakes.  Haley has done well in some aspects too.  He mixes good with bad, just like any man.  And this preseason, most definitely, has been bad. 

I want to discuss the logic of Haley’s offseason strategy here, because I know to some people it makes sense.  And to me, that doesn’t make sense.  Allow me to quote Bart Simpson (from the Hank Scorpio episode):

“Let me get this straight: we’re behind the rest of our class and we’re going to catch up to them by going slower than they are? Coo-Coo!”

From You Only Move Twice(Also known as “The one with Hank Scorpio”)

Essentially, this is what Haley has attempted to do.  Catch up by going slower.   Similar to Herm Edwards’ “rebuild” strategy, in a way.  Attempting to get better by choosing to be worse.  We had less time to prep, so we chose to…..prep less with the time we had?  I don’t know, that seems insane to me. 

The supposed payoff is that we’ll be healthier than other teams.  That may or may not happen.  Tony Moeaki and Brandon Siler are out for the year.  Do we take that as proof Haley’s plan isn’t working?   No, we do not.  Injuries are, by and large, random occurrences*.  Which is precisely why going to these lengths to avoid them seems foolish to me.   Football players are going to get hurt.  Even if Haley’s plan slightly lessens the chance of that, is it worth it to go into the season flat?  If we start 1-4, is it going to matter how much “fresher” we are down the stretch?

*You know what isn’t a random occurrence?  When your quarterback gets hurt because your offensive line isn’t ready to protect him.

As of right now, our team has as many receivers as offensive linemen.   Terry Copper, Quin Lawrence and Thom Jones are our coach’s favorite players.  Not only did we hang onto Jon McGraw, we brought in the poor man’s McGraw.  And Donald Washington will be paid US dollars to play football for us.  There is some weird stuff going on with this team right now.  It looks like they were totally unprepared for this shortened offseason, and have gone into a shell because of it.  I don’t know whats going to happen when we play Buffalo.  Its a game that was seemingly gift-wrapped for us and now it appears we may be taking a mulligan. 

When I daydream about this game, I picture Jamaal Charles taking that first handoff, running left for 10 yards, and Arrowhead Stadium heaving a collective sigh of relief.  The preseason was a nightmare, but nightmares can’t trouble you in your waking life.  Its over.  We can still play. 

But then there’s this other nagging vision that creeps in on its own.  In this one, Thom Jones takes the first handoff into the line for a one yard pickup.  We’re flat, we lose, and I spend the next week reading excuses and hanging my head. 

I want to make a few things clear right now: we are not rebuilding.  This is our regime’s third full year together, and we won the division last year.  We’re returning 17 starters.  The lockout affected everyone equally.  There are no excuses left for this team, and no reason we shouldn’t put it on Buffalo Sunday. 

No more messing aroundJamaal Charles left for 10 yards.

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@chiefswatch Wow! Way to be positive before the season even starts! Maybe we should just forfeit the game right now to save you all of the pain and agony!

@chiefswatch Right vs. the year before when JC limped off the field repeatedly and had offseason surgery. Good call! And with LJ we had just given him a big contract so we had to try to use him to get some ROI. I give him credit for making the dangerous choice to make a change from the big $$$ RB who just happens to be our 2nd leading rusher in franchise history, mid year w/o any history of performance from JC. Hind sight is 20/20 Duh!

@chiefswatch@Big Matt@the ya...good point...let's go back to the Herm Edwards years. b/c that was fun. Haley is good enough to get us a division title, with 1 legit receiver. We have a competitive team here, and a lot sooner than anyone expected when Haley was hired.

@KC MikeG Hahaha you have way to much faith in Haley. You are talking about the guy that gave more carries to Jones last year. He also rode the Larry Johnson train until the wheels popped off, bounced back and socked Haley in the mouth.

@Big Matt@the Haley knows best. Oh yea! StudBaker, Jones the baby puncher, and Urban from the Arizona Projects! Cant wait to have to sit through all the minutes those clowns are on the field.

You are my favorite writer by far. You are not nearly as negative as I am, but you essentially say the same things I do on the kansascity.com forums. What you label as wierd is actually same ol' "I know better than everyone else" Haley. And of course the first play will be Jones runs it up the gut for a one yard gain. What will ensue is a failed pass attempt and then Charles or McCluster sent in for a carry on 3 and 8, 3 and 9 which they will come close to picking up but ultimately fail. Punt, hope our Defense can get the ball back, rinse and repeat. We might win, but only because Charles actually does convert on on some of those shit posessions he is tossed.

[...] Realistic Belief In The KC Chiefs – The start of the NFL season is always so much fun, especially when it comes with angst from Chiefs fans, excellent usage, and an animated .gif: I want to discuss the logic of Haley’s offseason strategy here, because I know to some people it makes sense.  And to me, that doesn’t make sense.  Allow me to quote Bart Simpson (from the Hank Scorpio episode): [...]

@KC MikeG@DannyW Goning baclkwards, seccessful season, depends on you definition of success. Yours and mine are probably different. As for Garrard, no way. Better than Palko, well, how many legit QBs would not be better. Garrard does not fit nor have time to learn the playbook in time for any game before the fourth. As for Edwards, hindsight is a wonderful things, just proves you are right about Pioli. To bad it does not work the other way, isn't it? I am as guilty but we only tend to use it when it matches what we want to believe, doesn't it?

@Big Matt@the just to be sure i'm clear on it, i houston is the better player. i'm just talking about feeling bad for baker

@DannyW i didn't mean for it to sound like i think bakers better than houston. we both agree on that. it seems likely that haley will keep him as the starter for too long. i just don't want us to take our anger out on baker. poor guy sat while he should've started in '10, now he's going to start while he should be sitting in '11.

@DannyW Sorry - No way Merriweather was going to settle for back up, Franklin is hurt and has shown nothing, Edwards has had one play and just settled a DUI. No Thanks and thank you Mr. Pioli. The wild cards we drafted this year (Baldwin and Houston) will end up being stars for our team so they are worth the character risk. I would vote for Garrad over Palko while Stanzi develops. We won't ever know if we did call or not unless we get him but even if we do call will he settle for a back up role when there are teams that he could start for?? That's the problem once you have quality starters and you begin to build some depth many FA's are only back ups to our talent level. I'm waiting for our performance in the bills game also before I even think about giving up on another successful season.

@DannyW Agreed on Houston over Stude but believe that the difference in play will be to obvious for Haley not to make the change. I predict that Sheffield will pass him too by the end of the year.

I agree with your post today. To add to it, I think you got to put some of this on the Don Pioli. Brandon Meriweather is a huge upgrade over Jon McGraw or Sabby Piscewatever. We didnt even try to land him. The Saints got Franklin for 1yr 1 millioin we couldn't top that? Braylon Edwards went to San Fran for the same money as Franklin did, he would be an upgrade over Urban if you ask any GM except Scott Pioli. Maybe he wasnt apart of the right 53 excuse which is exactly what that is for not going for better players in free agency. We drafted some wild cards this year that would'nt get picked up by alot of teams for questionable behavior. Now there is Garrard we need a veteran presence at QB will we even call his agent some how I doubt it. Dont get me wrong I'm not saying we will lose every game I am waiting on my predictions after the Buff game but we could have had alot better roster aparantly on the cheap. Forgive my spelling mistakes all not a dumb hick just busy. BM hook me up with one of those small mediums so my belly hangs out when I wear the shirt and its super tight.

@The Centaur During the Rams game Baker couldn't get off his blocks, and was on the ground quite often. Green Bay's first string's first play was a run in the same direction off the right side and got the same results. He is a liability in the run game. Those teams showed us that he cant play the run. Houston has the potential to be something special while student baker needs to play special teams. It will play out that way is my prediction but I hope I'm wrong because I agree with BM Haley will play him regardless.

even before the preseason started i was assuming chiefs would be an 8-8 team. last year was a pleasant surprise and our defense seems legit.i attribute their inability to stop the run in preseason to with-holding their more complex blitz packages until the season. my biggest concern remains matt cassel. he has not shown the ability to throw the slant or improvise. i consider this of greater importance than his stat lines from last season.

Aww, nice! A free Big Matt Fan Club shirt for the kid? And can I pre-order one, too? As much as witnessing a Chiefs Super Bowl victory would be its own unforgettable reward, this sweetens the deal. It's gonna happen.

I think our offense will be similar to last year. Pretty much dependant on D-Bowe and JC. It is my sincere hope that Dex comes out and slays people but I don't know how long that will last with his size in the NFL(I think I ate 170 lbs of chicken last night). Our offensive line is pretty weak depth wise. I love our defense. I think the only way we stay in games, is if our D keeps us there. Personally, I think your wrong about Studebaker. Old man Vrabel set the bar pretty low for us to have an improvment in that area. Other than that, I like the cut of your jib!

I think the money would have been better invested on the Royals winning the World Series next year.

We really sucked the first 2 weeks of preseason (w/o most of our starters) but got better each of the last two weeks while playing most of our starters. Why are so many blindly focused on our problems. How about a little "silver lining"? Our margin of loss went from 25 to 18 to 4 to 1. We were one play away from winning games #3 and #4 - not that winning matters in preseason. Bowe, DMC, Houston, DJ, TJax, Gregg, Carr, Berry, Flowers and Colquitt look great! Hali, McClain, Charles, Breaston, Cassel, Gaither, Lilja, Dorsey, Belcher and Baldwin will all make major impacts. Colbert, Bailey, Powe, Asamouh, Hudson and Sheffield all have huge upside potential. What is important is that we got better. Yes, there were still things that we did poorly and need more work/focus. Our coaching staff will make the adjustments. Totally agree we need to start strong as the going only gets tougher.

@Big Matt On improving our discourse - Neither does blaming injuries on the coach or attacking every decision Haley makes to invent the doomsday forecast. How does not throwing our players into full contact practice w/o any of the normal offseason conditioning qualify as insane? Seems to me the opposite is true being we have the 4th fewest injuries according to NFL.com. How is it we were as you and Bart put it "behind the rest of our class"? You said it yourself we returned 17 starters and the lockout affected everyone equally. Which of our starting positions were not clearly decided from the start. I will agree with you on the decisions to keep "Slow Draw, "Jersey" and DWash. Think you will have to eat some crow on TJ and Copper. Haley fixed Bowe's butterfingers and Copper is now our best special teams player w/o Tucker (Bad decision to cut him/keep Battle). With you on the dream start of the Bills game except in my dream JC cuts back at 10 yards and beaks off a TD!!

@TrappedInDonkeyland Isn't it ironic? Deep breath. What doesn't get us anywhere is to ASS-U-ME that Haley's approach has failed until the regular season begins. I believe the jury should still be out. Yes, there are concerns (BRich, Moeaki, Cassel, Studie over Houston, Berry?). We sucked last preseason using the traditional approach and the "Chicken Littles" had us finishing 4-12 or 6-10. Hell even optimistic dreamers like me had accepted the fact that the absolute best case was 8-8. Love that you still believe the Super Bowl is a possibility. Hope you win the $$$.

Nice work Big Matt. I've been kind of having some of the same thoughts: the Chiefs DO still have quite a lot of talent and weapons. I think the Oline will be better with Lilja in and could be quite good if we get Gaither in at RT. In fact, I sincerely hope he starts this Sunday, when we'll either have Cassel playing in pain or a lefty. He're hoping Big Matt gets 2G and a new pair o' shoes!

@The Centaur My plan is to constantly remind myself that he isn't Vrabel. But Houston is obviously a lot better, and Haley just as obviously will start Studebaker much longer than he should. I think we can all see where this is going.

i love the tone of the article, but i have a much darker feeling about how this chiefs season will go. our defense has some serious talent, but that o-line...... 4-12

i want to see houston playing a lot too, but i can't help but feel you're being to hard on the baker. putting him on a short list along with barry richardson and the moeaki tragedy? after what happened last year, i'm going to go at least two weeks without any baker complaining. perhaps you could find it in your heart to do the same?

Guess I will start planning my superbowl party. Seriously, the season has not started and the Chiefs have to play the games, so why not win a few.

@Big Matt it's a little like rain on your wedding day dontcha think?

@TrappedInDonkeyland Apparently Studebaker is only my boy when he's the alternative to Vrabel. Ironically, he may end up turning into my new Vrabel. my white whale (linebacker), if you will.

Great read Matt and I agree with 95% of it (which is pretty good for me). Also, I'm totally holding you to the t-shirt if the Chiefs win it all.

I wear an XL. I seriously can't wait

I thought Student Baker was your boy??? Come on Matt.. He's WAY better than Vrable. I can't wait for the season to start so we can quit over analyzing practice

I agree with most of this. Sometimes I like that haley took the first week a little slower, but at the same time, we gotta come out of the gate and win these easy games, because regardless of health, week 11-15 is going to be brutal. 2-3 would be a HUGE victory in the stretch.

chiefswatch 81 pts

You are my favorite writer by far. You are not nearly as negative as I am, but you essentially say the same things I do on the kansascity.com forums. What you label as wierd is actually same ol' "I know better than everyone else" Haley. And of course the first play will be Jones runs it up the gut for a one yard gain. What will ensue is a failed pass attempt and then Charles or McCluster sent in for a carry on 3 and 8, 3 and 9 which they will come close to picking up but ultimately fail. Punt, hope our Defense can get the ball back, rinse and repeat. We might win, but only because Charles actually does convert on on some of those shit posessions he is tossed.

KC MikeG 319 pts

chiefswatch

Wow! Way to be positive before the season even starts! Maybe we should just forfeit the game right now to save you all of the pain and agony!

DannyW 21 pts

I agree with your post today. To add to it, I think you got to put some of this on the Don Pioli. Brandon Meriweather is a huge upgrade over Jon McGraw or Sabby Piscewatever. We didnt even try to land him. The Saints got Franklin for 1yr 1 millioin we couldn't top that? Braylon Edwards went to San Fran for the same money as Franklin did, he would be an upgrade over Urban if you ask any GM except Scott Pioli. Maybe he wasnt apart of the right 53 excuse which is exactly what that is for not going for better players in free agency. We drafted some wild cards this year that would'nt get picked up by alot of teams for questionable behavior. Now there is Garrard we need a veteran presence at QB will we even call his agent some how I doubt it.

Dont get me wrong I'm not saying we will lose every game I am waiting on my predictions after the Buff game but we could have had alot better roster aparantly on the cheap.

Forgive my spelling mistakes all not a dumb hick just busy.

BM hook me up with one of those small mediums so my belly hangs out when I wear the shirt and its super tight.

KC MikeG 319 pts

DannyW

Sorry - No way Merriweather was going to settle for back up, Franklin is hurt and has shown nothing, Edwards has had one play and just settled a DUI. No Thanks and thank you Mr. Pioli. The wild cards we drafted this year (Baldwin and Houston) will end up being stars for our team so they are worth the character risk. I would vote for Garrad over Palko while Stanzi develops. We won't ever know if we did call or not unless we get him but even if we do call will he settle for a back up role when there are teams that he could start for?? That's the problem once you have quality starters and you begin to build some depth many FA's are only back ups to our talent level. I'm waiting for our performance in the bills game also before I even think about giving up on another successful season.

tm1946 183 pts

KC MikeGDannyW Goning baclkwards, seccessful season, depends on you definition of success. Yours and mine are probably different.

As for Garrard, no way. Better than Palko, well, how many legit QBs would not be better. Garrard does not fit nor have time to learn the playbook in time for any game before the fourth.

As for Edwards, hindsight is a wonderful things, just proves you are right about Pioli. To bad it does not work the other way, isn't it? I am as guilty but we only tend to use it when it matches what we want to believe, doesn't it?

jackie rubbinson 27 pts

even before the preseason started i was assuming chiefs would be an 8-8 team. last year was a pleasant surprise and our defense seems legit.i attribute their inability to stop the run in preseason to with-holding their more complex blitz packages until the season.

my biggest concern remains matt cassel. he has not shown the ability to throw the slant or improvise. i consider this of greater importance than his stat lines from last season.

Victor74 25 pts

Aww, nice! A free Big Matt Fan Club shirt for the kid? And can I pre-order one, too? As much as witnessing a Chiefs Super Bowl victory would be its own unforgettable reward, this sweetens the deal. It's gonna happen.

AdamSchefers 11 pts

I think our offense will be similar to last year. Pretty much dependant on D-Bowe and JC. It is my sincere hope that Dex comes out and slays people but I don't know how long that will last with his size in the NFL(I think I ate 170 lbs of chicken last night). Our offensive line is pretty weak depth wise. I love our defense. I think the only way we stay in games, is if our D keeps us there.

Personally, I think your wrong about Studebaker. Old man Vrabel set the bar pretty low for us to have an improvment in that area. Other than that, I like the cut of your jib!

KC Oracle 68 pts

I think the money would have been better invested on the Royals winning the World Series next year.

KC MikeG 319 pts

We really sucked the first 2 weeks of preseason (w/o most of our starters) but got better each of the last two weeks while playing most of our starters. Why are so many blindly focused on our problems. How about a little "silver lining"? Our margin of loss went from 25 to 18 to 4 to 1. We were one play away from winning games #3 and #4 - not that winning matters in preseason. Bowe, DMC, Houston, DJ, TJax, Gregg, Carr, Berry, Flowers and Colquitt look great! Hali, McClain, Charles, Breaston, Cassel, Gaither, Lilja, Dorsey, Belcher and Baldwin will all make major impacts. Colbert, Bailey, Powe, Asamouh, Hudson and Sheffield all have huge upside potential. What is important is that we got better. Yes, there were still things that we did poorly and need more work/focus. Our coaching staff will make the adjustments. Totally agree we need to start strong as the going only gets tougher.

sidibeke 259 pts

Nice work Big Matt. I've been kind of having some of the same thoughts: the Chiefs DO still have quite a lot of talent and weapons. I think the Oline will be better with Lilja in and could be quite good if we get Gaither in at RT. In fact, I sincerely hope he starts this Sunday, when we'll either have Cassel playing in pain or a lefty.

He're hoping Big Matt gets 2G and a new pair o' shoes!

The Centaur 16 pts

i love the tone of the article, but i have a much darker feeling about how this chiefs season will go. our defense has some serious talent, but that o-line......

4-12

The Centaur 16 pts

i want to see houston playing a lot too, but i can't help but feel you're being to hard on the baker. putting him on a short list along with barry richardson and the moeaki tragedy?

after what happened last year, i'm going to go at least two weeks without any baker complaining. perhaps you could find it in your heart to do the same?

Big Matt 199 pts

@The Centaur My plan is to constantly remind myself that he isn't Vrabel.

But Houston is obviously a lot better, and Haley just as obviously will start Studebaker much longer than he should. I think we can all see where this is going.

The Centaur 16 pts

Big Matt@the

just to be sure i'm clear on it, i houston is the better player.

i'm just talking about feeling bad for baker

chiefswatch 81 pts

Big Matt@the Haley knows best. Oh yea! StudBaker, Jones the baby puncher, and Urban from the Arizona Projects! Cant wait to have to sit through all the minutes those clowns are on the field.

jpopejoy 56 pts

chiefswatchBig Matt@the ya...good point...let's go back to the Herm Edwards years. b/c that was fun.

Haley is good enough to get us a division title, with 1 legit receiver. We have a competitive team here, and a lot sooner than anyone expected when Haley was hired.

DannyW 21 pts

The Centaur During the Rams game Baker couldn't get off his blocks, and was on the ground quite often. Green Bay's first string's first play was a run in the same direction off the right side and got the same results. He is a liability in the run game. Those teams showed us that he cant play the run. Houston has the potential to be something special while student baker needs to play special teams. It will play out that way is my prediction but I hope I'm wrong because I agree with BM Haley will play him regardless.