The Gambler

I’d like to cozy up to Big Bear and see if I can catch a hint of Croyle’s after-shave cologne. The Chiefs were exciting. A professor once articulated a very interesting concept: as a generality, there’s a reason why gamblers are often the poor or elderly. Their behavior is low-probability, high-return chance at becoming rich. Seems foolish to the rationally minded, but it is their only path to wealth. Younger, middle class folks have a better option: time and prudent behavior results in a high-probability, high-return outcome. Gambling isn’t needed. Undoubtedly, Todd Haley didn’t expect the ‘slow and steady’ approach would overcome the incredibly talented, high-powered offense of the Colts. To win the game, he needed to gamble…or so he thought. I’m certain very few thought differently before Sunday, however things are different now. The Chiefs are nearing legitimacy.

Good comments fellas. I just got home from a hell of a long day so I didn't get a chance to respond to these. Apologies. A few notes: 1) Cassel is scaring me just like he is everyone else. I just don't know what we can do about it. Croyle is not an upgrade, nor can he stay healthy. I think we just have to hope Cassel doesn't throw interception. That could maybe be a strength. Almost everything else is a weakness. 2) I don't think the 4th down decision was stupid necessarily, I'm just saying I wouldn't have done it. I wasn't yelling at the screen, but I felt uneasy. I feel like you take the points there. 2 yards is no sure thing. 3) I think we take a receiver in the first round next year. I don't know what happens to Bowe. I can no longer claim he has what it takes to be a #1. 4) On the other hand, if Moeaki is as good as he looks, do we really need a "#1 receiver"? Bowe hands are a problem, but I still think Cassel has enough weapons to make this offense go. Thanks for the comments, gang. Look for an RFP post later in the week.

On the gambling note, personally I like Haley's aggressive style. It's always easy to second guess after the fact when you take chances but rather that than boring conservative football. Remember, Haley almost beat the Steelers in the Superbowl with that style.

I don't like all of Haley's gambles, but overall he hasn't done anything too crazy. I'm not going to like them all and sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I don't think we lost that game because of his coaching. We lost it because we don't have a receiver worth a crap. I've said it before and I'll say it again, D-Bowe is far from a #1 WR. The Chiefs needed/still need to address this problem in free agency. We are going to draft an impact receiver right away. They don't come out of college ready to contribute....usually. Our QB isn't good enough with bad receivers. I think that he would be good enough to compete with anyone if he had some help. Pisses me off that we couldn't get Boldin, TJ Houzahwhatever, or the fact we aren't in talks to get Vincent Jackson (from what I have heard). Haley and Pioli seem fine with practice squad guys (Terrance Copper) and wash-up veterans (too many to name). If D-Bowe had any trade value then I'd say get rid of him. Too bad he doesn't, so we are stuck.

Cassel is not going anywhere this year. For better or worse Haley is not going to make any drastic changes, especially when we are 3-1. Cassel has shown improvement though not as much as I would like to see. He's not throwing interceptions like he did last year, (and Haley hates turnovers), he's looking a little more comfortable in the pocket and he's throwing the ball away when he gets pressured instead of trying to force something that isn't there. The down side is he still isn't reading the defenses very effectively and I've seen him get rid of the ball when there are open receivers far too often. I just hope he can grow into a good QB this year because he's not there yet.

Brody Cryole has got to be our man. 1. His throwing is stronger, faster, and more accurate. He is a gunslinger like Brett Favre and Jay Cutler. He will have more interceptions but will also tear a defense apart on a good day. The time it takes to snap/release the football is so quick with him it will speed up the game and confuse defenders. It also gives defenses less time to sack the QB. Mix that with the fact that we actually have some pocket protection this year and a running game that will keep the defense honest. I really think he needs a shot at starter. 2. I understand he's been injured in the past but here's my argument for that. He's healthy now and this may sound silly but his bones are just as strong as anyone else’s. There has to be some element of bad fortune with his injuries because if you put the same hit on any other QB I think they receive the same injury. Secondly what is the worst case scenario? He gets hurt and we put Castle back in? 3. When you have a stronger faster arm, you have more receiving options. Receivers might be open but Castle knows he can't get them the ball fast enough or at their distance, so he holds on to it and looks for an easier target. There are going to be more options and possibilities with Croyles arm. I can envision Croyle's deep ball threat forcing defenders to play a little deeper in the field, and as a result opening up the quick dump pass to Maoke more often. Bottom line Croyle's the better athlete. He may or may not be our future, but his upside outshines Castles.

What scares me is our history for drafting quarterbacks and their successes. We cant do it.

I get you Jason. Id be all for us keeping Matt, trading Brody, and getting a young college arm out there.

I can see a new QB in our future Jason. Right now I think we all forgot how Matt changed the way we play. For several years we had no QB that could stay on his feet game after game and produce wins. Matt is part of the reason that changed. Are there better QB's out there, you bet. Can we get one? Unknown.

I think we just need to add qb and #1 wideout to our draft list. Cassel has the rest of the season to prove something, but for now, his timing SUCKS, he has NO VISION, and NO ARM. The one downside to watching the game on TV is you only see what they show. I find it hard to believe that somewhere on the field there is not an open receiver. Cassel does not know how to "look off" a safety, and I don't think he can see the whole field. I know that the TV crews can usually find an open receiver when Matt couldn't. It also helps when they catch the ball. I think the team will have success this year, but to reach the ultimate goal, we are going to need a QB. And some hands!!!!

I thought this was Bowe's break out year too especially after his great training camp...He's got 12 more games to prove it is...Damn that drop changed everything in the game and sent the offense into a down whirl spiral...

I was mostly for the 4th down call. I liked it when years ago the Chiefs sent LJ over the top on the final play of the game with no timeouts (when a pass or FG was a safer play.) What I didn't like was 1. the play call and 2. the execution. If you look at that play again, Castille is sitting in the hole of the zone about 3 yards downfield. Remember, it was 4th and 2 not 4th and Goal. Castile was open, in fact the closest guy to him was in the end zone (5 yards away) and was already breaking towards Bowe before the ball was thrown. If Cassell throws to Castille, it's a 1st down for sure, and quite possibly a TD. That said, I would have like to seen something different entirely.

Hard to believe D Johnson was benched last year and we discussed his future with the team on AA, this year he is playing like an animal.

All i can say is the trade deadline is coming tuesday the 19th they better be trying to get someone who can catch the ball.it doesnt help though when you have somebody that cant throw the ball either.

great points Patrick. Its understandable that Haley would not anticipate the level of D play. Its the same freaking line he had last year when we sucked and they sucked! Great post Biggy!

I disagree about going for it on 4th down. I think the only reason people question that call is because it didn't work. A lot of what you look for before deciding whether to go for it on 4th down was in the Chiefs favor. Momentum, check. Short yardage, check. In the redzone, check. Toss in the fact that the idea of the game being a FG shootout is highly unlikely and that makes the call for me. Even the play call was a good one. However, Cassel failed to execute. Can't blame the coaches for that.

Unnecessary, unless... I've pondered Haley's decisions last night and this morning and I really believe both decisions were unnecessary. Did Haley really think that "THE PEYTON MANNING" was going to be rattled if the Chiefs got the onside kick and then scored a touchdown? I just don't think it was necessary. Did Haley really think that a touchdown was that much better than 3 points. Jamal Charles had almost lost the ball on the previous play... why not take your 3 and play some D... However, after watch the replay, if Cassel had held the ball 1 more second, our man Moeaki was coming wide open in the back of the endzone like he did against San Diego? So, why did Hayley take such 'unnecessary' risks? My one and only thought is that MAYBE Romeo told Haley to get him the lead and he'd do the rest? Maybe?

Its called a lack in faith of the offense.they are in serious trouble to produce a lot of points right now.they all can be replaced so stay tuned anything can happen and not soon enough for me.

I like Haley. That onside would have worked if it went 1.5 yards more. Succup had some weird spin on it which caused it to go backwards. I think Haley gave too much respect to the Colts in this game. But I am all for Haley. As I said earlier, I am tired of Defending Cassel and Bowe. They are what they are inconsistent, more cold than hot. The offense is going to waste our best defense in years.

I’d like to cozy up to Big Bear and see if I can catch a hint of Croyle’s after-shave cologne.

The Chiefs were exciting.

A professor once articulated a very interesting concept: as a generality, there’s a reason why gamblers are often the poor or elderly. Their behavior is low-probability, high-return chance at becoming rich. Seems foolish to the rationally minded, but it is their only path to wealth. Younger, middle class folks have a better option: time and prudent behavior results in a high-probability, high-return outcome. Gambling isn’t needed.

Undoubtedly, Todd Haley didn’t expect the ‘slow and steady’ approach would overcome the incredibly talented, high-powered offense of the Colts. To win the game, he needed to gamble…or so he thought. I’m certain very few thought differently before Sunday, however things are different now. The Chiefs are nearing legitimacy.

Good comments fellas. I just got home from a hell of a long day so I didn't get a chance to respond to these. Apologies.

A few notes:

1) Cassel is scaring me just like he is everyone else. I just don't know what we can do about it. Croyle is not an upgrade, nor can he stay healthy. I think we just have to hope Cassel doesn't throw interception. That could maybe be a strength. Almost everything else is a weakness.

2) I don't think the 4th down decision was stupid necessarily, I'm just saying I wouldn't have done it. I wasn't yelling at the screen, but I felt uneasy. I feel like you take the points there. 2 yards is no sure thing.

3) I think we take a receiver in the first round next year. I don't know what happens to Bowe. I can no longer claim he has what it takes to be a #1.

4) On the other hand, if Moeaki is as good as he looks, do we really need a "#1 receiver"? Bowe hands are a problem, but I still think Cassel has enough weapons to make this offense go.

Thanks for the comments, gang. Look for an RFP post later in the week.

On the gambling note, personally I like Haley's aggressive style. It's always easy to second guess after the fact when you take chances but rather that than boring conservative football. Remember, Haley almost beat the Steelers in the Superbowl with that style.

I don't like all of Haley's gambles, but overall he hasn't done anything too crazy. I'm not going to like them all and sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I don't think we lost that game because of his coaching. We lost it because we don't have a receiver worth a crap.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, D-Bowe is far from a #1 WR. The Chiefs needed/still need to address this problem in free agency. We are going to draft an impact receiver right away. They don't come out of college ready to contribute....usually. Our QB isn't good enough with bad receivers. I think that he would be good enough to compete with anyone if he had some help.

Pisses me off that we couldn't get Boldin, TJ Houzahwhatever, or the fact we aren't in talks to get Vincent Jackson (from what I have heard). Haley and Pioli seem fine with practice squad guys (Terrance Copper) and wash-up veterans (too many to name).

If D-Bowe had any trade value then I'd say get rid of him. Too bad he doesn't, so we are stuck.

Cassel is not going anywhere this year. For better or worse Haley is not going to make any drastic changes, especially when we are 3-1. Cassel has shown improvement though not as much as I would like to see. He's not throwing interceptions like he did last year, (and Haley hates turnovers), he's looking a little more comfortable in the pocket and he's throwing the ball away when he gets pressured instead of trying to force something that isn't there. The down side is he still isn't reading the defenses very effectively and I've seen him get rid of the ball when there are open receivers far too often. I just hope he can grow into a good QB this year because he's not there yet.

Brody Cryole has got to be our man.

1. His throwing is stronger, faster, and more accurate. He is a gunslinger like Brett Favre and Jay Cutler. He will have more interceptions but will also tear a defense apart on a good day. The time it takes to snap/release the football is so quick with him it will speed up the game and confuse defenders. It also gives defenses less time to sack the QB. Mix that with the fact that we actually have some pocket protection this year and a running game that will keep the defense honest. I really think he needs a shot at starter.

2. I understand he's been injured in the past but here's my argument for that. He's healthy now and this may sound silly but his bones are just as strong as anyone else’s. There has to be some element of bad fortune with his injuries because if you put the same hit on any other QB I think they receive the same injury. Secondly what is the worst case scenario? He gets hurt and we put Castle back in?

3. When you have a stronger faster arm, you have more receiving options. Receivers might be open but Castle knows he can't get them the ball fast enough or at their distance, so he holds on to it and looks for an easier target. There are going to be more options and possibilities with Croyles arm. I can envision Croyle's deep ball threat forcing defenders to play a little deeper in the field, and as a result opening up the quick dump pass to Maoke more often.

Bottom line Croyle's the better athlete. He may or may not be our future, but his upside outshines Castles.

What scares me is our history for drafting quarterbacks and their successes. We cant do it.

I get you Jason. Id be all for us keeping Matt, trading Brody, and getting a young college arm out there.

I can see a new QB in our future Jason. Right now I think we all forgot how Matt changed the way we play. For several years we had no QB that could stay on his feet game after game and produce wins. Matt is part of the reason that changed. Are there better QB's out there, you bet. Can we get one? Unknown.

I think we just need to add qb and #1 wideout to our draft list. Cassel has the rest of the season to prove something, but for now, his timing SUCKS, he has NO VISION, and NO ARM. The one downside to watching the game on TV is you only see what they show. I find it hard to believe that somewhere on the field there is not an open receiver. Cassel does not know how to "look off" a safety, and I don't think he can see the whole field. I know that the TV crews can usually find an open receiver when Matt couldn't. It also helps when they catch the ball. I think the team will have success this year, but to reach the ultimate goal, we are going to need a QB. And some hands!!!!