The Chiefs Should Draft CJ Spiller #5 Overall*

by Chiefs

The Chiefs found a gem when Priest Holmes went down with injury in 2004. Starting to suspect if they had any backup RBs that could carry the load in Priest’s absense, they eventually gave a shot to a young Larry Johnson. This was a couple games after Holmes’ placement on IR, and for a few great years, there was no looking back.

LJ’s phenomenal talent behind one of the best offensive lines of all time was a sight to behold. He ran through defenders, between defenders, around defenders and racked up so much yardage after first contact he seemed to have more than he did before first contact. It was fear inducing. Defenses were exhausted by the final quarter. And in 2005, LJ would have been on pace to destroy the single-season yardage barrier had he been given more carries in a season he partially shared with Priest.

With such a brilliant talent at running back, the Chiefs looked elsewhere in the Draft and free agency (the first serious help at RB wouldn’t come until Kolby Smith was drafted in the midrounds next year). They figured they were set at the position; that a complimentary back might be nice but that it wasn’t a need, and proceeded to turn their attention to the defense.

The folly of this decision was obvious. While it was a bonus in the short-term not to place a priority on finding another good running back, it was a horrendous decision in the not-so-long-term. LJ was eventually fed the ball far too often over a couple seasons (including his infamous 416 carries in 2007), wore down at hyperspeed, losing value quicker than a PT Cruiser. By thinking short-term rather than maximizing LJ’s talent for as long as possible, the Chiefs found themselves with a terrible running game.

****

The Chiefs found a gem when Larry Johnson was suspended in 2009. Starting to suspect if they had any backup RBs that could carry the load in LJ’s absense, they eventually gave a shot to a young Jamaal Charles. And for what looks like will be some great years ahead, there will be no looking back.

If this sounds familiar to you, it should. And it plays into why the Chiefs should draft CJ Spiller*, a ball-carrying demon out of Clemson’s backfield, and the best offensive player of the 2010 NFL Draft.

More, after the jump.

Now, it is true that Jamaal Charles is not the same running back as Larry Johnson. LJ was a power back, and they typically have a short shelf-life. Charles is a scat-back, he is more reliant on agility.

But that’s exactly why a second running back should be a priority. Charles does not have the body to hold up for an entire NFL season. He was playing injured for much of the time he played. He cannot take 25 carries a game. Take that down to 15-20 and split it up with a running back that continues to demand respect from a defense, rather than having a Nobody come in so a defense can take a couple plays off resting for Charles.

Now, some of you may call me crazy. Well before you think I’m Whitlocking for attention, rather than genuinely believing something this unconventional, I will list you the arguments as to why this team should pick up CJ Spiller*.

1. He is a rare talent. A talented running back/track star much like Charles, Spiller is a real threat to run a 4.2 at the Combine this year. There’s absolutely nobody, not even Taylor Mays, who can match his level of athletic ability. Spiller, much like Charles, has unbelievable balance and can change directions in a flash.  His breakaway speed is unheard of, and is pretty much on par with Charles.

Like our current RB stud, he forces defenses to be honest and stay spread across the field, because like you can see in the video, Spiller just needs a seam and it’s over. Remember a couple seasons ago when the Chiefs had to struggle for 20+ yard gains? With Spiller and Charles, that would be a thing of the past.

2. He is a dynamo returning kicks. I’m serious, you can YouTube it. Those of you who want an offensive tackle so we can improve not one, but two positions on the field can take a hike: as long as you count PR and KR as two different positions, Spiller improves three positions on the field. Spiller’s kickoff returns have a particular feel that resemble virtually nobody else’s: he doesn’t weave through the crowd like Dante Hall or Devin Hester, he doesn’t simply take great angles like DeSean Jackson or Reggie Bush… He is a force of nature that simply whooshes across the field, pulling away from anybody chasing him. Just watch.

3. He and Charles will maximize each others’ talents and longevity. Running backs do typically have shorter shelf life — but that’s if they have to carry too much of the load too much of the time, which we’re risking in 2010 if we don’t find another promising RB to put alongside Charles. By the same token, Charles will be able to extend Spiller’s career as well as long as the two remain a dual threat out of the backfield.

I don’t want to hear that Spiller is a clone of Charles. First of all, even if he was, sign me up. Secondly, Charles is a much more prominent out-of-the-backfield runner. Spiller can actually run routes and is an excellent receiver, and can even double as a deep threat spread out wide. CJ Spiller is essentially Reggie Bush without the Superman complex of wanting to do too much. Like Bush, Spiller is also a really good kick returner.

Now, I’ve heard the argument that you gotta have thunder to go with your lightning. I’m not opposed to picking up some thunder in addition to Spiller, but who says you can have too much lightning? Big backs are much easier to pick up than speed backs like these two, and this team is aching for talent, not for picky little pieces to the puzzle, and no offensive player has more talent than this guy.

4. He will be a powerful piece in our future negotiations with Charles. If Charles has racked up another 1000 yards in a few games like he did this year, he’s going to want to reconfigure his contract that he signed his rookie year. By all means, he’s entitled. But before we go spending ridiculous Larry Johnson sized-money on the guy, he won’t be able to threaten us as if without him, we have no home-run backs. In essense, we won’t have to pay him as much which keeps our cap flexible.

5. He is a sure thing. Running backs tend to have very low bust rates in the first round. Running backs with this much speed almost never bust in the first round. Since the #5 overall is likely to be the last #5 overall to receive an obscene amount of money from the Chiefs before rookie pay-slotting is likely introduced next year, it would be wise to take a sure thing rather than a crazy risk. Safeties bust much more often, and while offensive lineman have a low bust rate, it isn’t as low as speed backs like Spiller. Pioli has been described as liking “a sure thing” by Kent Babb. You don’t get any closer to guaranteed value than this.

6. Most importantly, no other player would have a bigger impact on this team than Spiller**. Defenses would have to play honest. Our offensive line would face less pressure and could create smaller holes in the rungame. No other team in the league (with the possible exception of the Saints) could sport a one-two speed punch that the Chiefs would have. Any play with these two on the field can become a touchdown. Our wide receivers would face less brackets. Cassel would have more time and less pressure to single-handedly carry the team.

As good as many of the elite tackles atop this Draft are, we still have Albert and should give him a shot for another year. We can find good OL talent later in the Draft (although you’ll notice our OL will get magically better with Spiller and Charles running). It’s a great Draft for passrushing, premier guys will still be available in round two. And why spend a ridiculously high pick on an ILB like Rolando McClain if you can still find great ILBs in the 3rd and 4th round? And Mays, much as I love him, is not the sure thing Spiller is. You can also find great corners later into the next round of Draft, and this isn’t a position of great need for us anyway.

See, this is the deciding factor here. You do not simply want an insanely good player at #5 overall, but you want someone who will have an earthquake of an an impact and change your entire team and everything your opponent does in game-planning for you. Nobody, and I mean nobody***, meets this criterion more than Clemson’s CJ Spiller.
__________________________________________
* As long as Eric Berry’s off the board.
** With the exception of Eric Berry.
*** Eric Berry, Eric Berry, Eric Berry.

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i like the thought process of picking stiller, but disagree. i still think we pick haden, move carr to safety and with great coverage blitz hell out the opposition. picking a rb like the kid from stanford, anybody remember ed podolak?

Jacoby Ford will be available in the middle rounds. He might go higher because he will run the fastest 40 time. This guy has world class speed. Broke the 60m indoor NCAA record. He was actually faster in HS when he was a little lighter and ran a 4.126 40

Ronnie,

#6 = Jacoby Ford. Need I say more?

Randy,

Locked out from posting until somebody turns the switch back on for me. Aside from that, uber busy.

HEY DOUBLE D WHERE YA BEEN?

The guy I most want from Clemson is Jacoby Ford - but not as the #5 pick.

Look for a trade with SF for their 13th pick and 2nd rnd 17th if Sam Bradford is still on the board. Spiller or Bryant should be available there, then KC has 3 2nd rounders. Fla's Maurkice Pouncey at OG or RT, Witherspoon at ILB (not OLB), either RB Best or another WR depending on whose taken at 13.

Charles ran for a thousand n ten games guys. The best way to spill. Charles is throw and wat Is the common ground on throwing and running...the line. Waters wanted out last year and is older so draft a lt unless berry is there and move albert to his natural guard pos or to rt

Who the heck is #6 on clemson.....talking about how fast spiller is that kid gets out in front of him pretty easily

Scary! Reminds me of Terrell Davis.

Andrew,

At first I was going to accuse you of drunk dialing this post. After reviewing your arguments, which are good, I'll go a little less harsh on you.

When you have the opportunity to pick from the top 5 and you need to select an immediate impact player, whether that be for OT, DL, QB, or otherwise, that also needs to someone who you believe can contribute to your team's success for many, many years to come. If you don't follow this formula, you undermine the parity objectivity intended by draft positioning, and basically ruined a valuable opportunity.

I agree that Spiller meets several elements of the above-mentioned criteria because of his speed, ball abilities, and potentail to positively impact the PR/KR equation.

However, his multi-faceted abilities are also quite likely to act as a major liability to his shelf life. For a smallish RB carrying the ball 15-20 times a game, handling PR/KR duties, plus catching passes in front of MLB's and SS's you've got to expect the risk of and timetable for wear-down to increase exponentially.

Bottom line, I say no, too much of a gamble at #5.

I wouldn't be against taking Spiller at 5 but think Okung or McClain make more sense (assuming Berry is gone). Despite giving the team two breakaway backs that could get 20 touches a game, my main concern is how you pay both of them when Charles' contract is finished after 2010 though. Would be very exciting though.

Andrew,

While this is a great suggestion and this may be an upgrade to our running game, I don't like this guy at #5. If we don't solve the OL troubles we are having with the #5 pick then this new management is just as bad or ignorant as the Peterson era. I know most people are saying that you don't pay #5 pick money for a C or G, but we need BOTH horribly bad and if they protect the QB and open holes for our RB's I say break the damn bank. We used to have THE BEST line in all of the NFL and we need to get that back. If we take an OL with the #5 pick I GUARANTEE this offense is in the top 10 next year. Then if we use our 2nd rounders for a SS, WR, NT, LB or RB in ANY order, we make this team into a contender for 2010 not JUST 2011. There is too much talent coming out this year at positions we could upgrade and not enough talent in positions we HAVE to upgrade to get better.

Yes this guy Spiller looks like a game changer, but not at #5. Maybe if he is available at our first 2nd pick, then I say heck yeah, pull the trigger. I just think we need too much at other positions. I honestly think the team picks NT or SS at #5, which to me doesn't help the team as much as an OL does. OL at #5 helps the QB, RB and the receivers because the QB gets time to make great decisions.

Spiller isn't even a luxury pick. He would be a upgrade over Jamaal Charles but at a much higher cost. Both him and Charles are speed backs, so there wouldn't be any change of pace element. Spiller maybe a tad faster (which doesn't matter since both are ridiculously fast), a better returner, and has better hands. But defenses wouldn't have any trouble gameplanning since both backs are so similar.

I think Spiller is a luxury pick, but if we are fortunate enough to have a couple of trade downs, and he slipped down to us, I do think he's a game changer. However, I think the Chiefs can only afford this luxury (he and Charles getting 12-18 touches a game makes me dizzy with glee)if we are able to trade down (maybe a couple of times). If we load up on 2nd and 3rd's, allowing us to plug in impact players at S, C, G, and NT, ILB, and OLB (this would only require 1 or 2 trades with our current picks) with those picks, I think Chief's nation would experience a REALLY big impact on the O and D for the '10 and '11 seasons.

I would rather take a Nose Tackle or a safety..I really just don't think we have the team for a luxory pick in the top 5.

Does he look impressive? Yes.
Pick him at 5? No.

1) Rare talent. That he has talent is not in question.

2) Returning dynamo. Yes, he looks good at that. While he might improve 3 spots as opposed to an OT upgrading 2, the offensive line is on the field more than a returner.

3) Saying that they will increase their longevity is correct. Maximize each others talent? I'm not so sure. While they may not be clones, they are similar in the fact that their weakness lies in running up the middle. A weakness made weaker by a mediocre, at best, O-line. So when we need those hard yards, when we need that goal line back, where we need to punch it up the middle, we have...?

4) He would be a negotiating tool that we just spent 5 pick money on to split play time with Charles. An OK reason but a little like spending more money now to spend less later. The money is still being spent just now on Spiller instead of later on Charles.

5) As far as being as close to a sure thing as possible, you may be right on that. At least the drafts in the past 5 years seem to lend credit to that.

6) As far as no one having a bigger impact, I disagree. Mostly because we don't fully know what impact a player will have until he is on the team and is addressing his role on the team and interacting with his teammates. Can you say with certainty that Spiller would make a bigger impact than a beast of a NT?

Your comment that we need talent, not puzzle pieces infers that they are exclusive of one another. We can find talented pieces that fit our puzzle. That may mean drafting less exciting picks but maybe that unexciting piece is a corner piece of the puzzle. And anybody who does puzzles knows that's where you start.

He would probably be an excellent player for us. However, his skills overlap with Charles' quite a bit. I think we can extend Charles' longevity and add a new dimension to our run game by spending a 2nd rd pick or 3rd even. After all that's where we found Charles.

Good idea but i would get a kid like Best from cal for all the. Same reasons But he will b there with our first 2ed rounder.

While reading your article i thought no way,we have too many other needs, a left tackle would make much more sense.But after watching that highlight reel,my goodness that dude can fly,so if that was their choice at #5 i would be very excited.

Congrats Andrew! I have been waiting for the 'draft a skill player' bandwagon to start, but I was expecting Dez Bryant to be the vehicle. You fooled me. Oh, no, sorry, drafting a backup running back at #5, epic fail. I would prefer to draft some good o-line talent and not expect the line to get magically better.