Merlin's 2008 Chiefs Draft Review

I'm not sure why anyone is bitching about Bernard Pollard not tackling anyone... he had 90 tackles (74 solo) in the 2007 season. Troy Polamalu has only topped 90 tackles twice in his career, and that guy is EVERYWHERE.

I'm really excited about the Chiefs draft this year. We got so much VALUE in our picks. Brandon Flowers, Jamaal Charles, Barry Richardson, and DaJuan Morgan are all examples of players we probably got steals with.

For anyone worried about any off-field issues or character concerns, don't. I don't think Herm would look seriously at any straight up thugs (Pacman Jones, Chris Henry, etc.) and I think he deals well with the "troubled" players that have been selected (haven't had any problems with Tank Tyler, have we?)

Anyway.. looking forward to this season.

i agree with john as well. If there would of been a solid prospect on the oline in the 3rd we should of taken him, but since there wast bpa was the best approach. And i think that charles coming in to spell lj and coming in on 3rd down will do alot for our feeble offense.

Jay:

Here is more confirmation from one of the better NFL writers-Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News-in his May 6 article grading the 32 team drafts. (He also describes his methodology, which most do not.)

Anyway, he gave the Chiefs the only A+ for 2008, the first A-range grade he has given us in 17 years. More important, he said that according to his 500-player board, developed through his extensive contacts with NFL teams themselves, the Chiefs:

1. Only had 1 minor reach, our R5 pick CB Brandon Carr, to whom he had given an R6 grade; and

2. The Chiefs had 7 picks to whom he had given R3 or higher grades. (Presumably, these 7 are our first 7, through WR Will Franklin in R4.)

"Just the facts ma'am; just the facts." (Sergeant Joe Friday, Dragnet)

I Agree 100% John.

More info. on Chiefs' R3 draft debate in KC Star this am. Adam Teicher quotes former Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly:

"The best thing they did was stay disciplined in the draft...They could have gone and drafted five offensive linemen right off the bat, but if they did that, maybe four of them can't play. What good does that do for them.

"There was an elite group of offensive linemen in the draft this year. The Chiefs got one of them. That group went faster than anybody thought. So if they would have drafted an offensive in the second round, they would have been getting a third-or fourth-round offensive lineman. They didn't do that, and they should be commended for that."

Questions:

1.If only 3rd or 4th round-value OLs were available at pick #35, when the Chiefs drafted CB Flowers (a late R1 value), wonder what value OLs were available in R3 @#73, 76 and 82?--certainly NOT R3 value.

2.What round value did they actually get in R3?--arguably R2 value with at least 2 of their 3 picks--RB Charles and S Morgan.

3.Which approach is more likely to lead to a stronger, rebuilt Chiefs team in 2-3 years?--game, set and match to the Chiefs!

Zing! MB strikes again. And proves my point again. Intelligent discourse, nope I'll just berate the other side because I don't have a clear point. Olive branch...I'll agree to disagree with you, if you can refrain from taking a dig in your next response.

Yes, agree to disagree, John.

Agree to have you put on a mild sedative, Jay.

MB:

1. No flies at all on your quals. Hope you get to use your international law training whenever you choose.

2. I have no problems with poker; just never had the time or the inclination to master it. Just threw in the lottery comment, because I consider it "voluntary" taxation and I pay enough taxes as it is.

3. I don't think the Chiefs were trying to maximize or minimize their number of 2008 wins. I think they are trying to build a sustainable championship calibre team over a somewhat longer time frame. With that as their goal, they have to take their BPAs. The cumulative 3-5 year difference in overall roster strength of taking their BPAs vs. drafting for the next season's needs is huge, especially since they are now managing their roster in such a way as to increase their number of draft picks. I know I am getting old enough that my brain is getting all used up (as my youngest informed me nearly a decade ago), but the logic of deliberately drafting, either in whole or in part, to maximize the value of future year picks escapes me or strikes as me as too clever by half.

Otherwise, we just have to agree to disagree and drive on, as I promised xxxlp.

Good luck.

ps With respect to your proposed Middle East solution, perhaps you should stick to poker!

MB, I'm glad to see how copious amounts of schooling in psych and law don't teach you anything about making a clear and valid argument. All you've done is contradict yourself and then claim that I can't handle your massive intellectual prowess. You're an ego-maniac, and arguing with someone who belittles anyone who disagrees with them is...is...wait, are you Dick Cheney? It all makes sense now!!!

100th post!

Lets see if this thread dies now. I'm game for 200! haha.

John,

I went to Santa Clara Law class of 99, Oxford, Magdalen College exchange program. I specialized in international law. I am not currently practicing.

Pish, Harvard, figures. Haha. No wonder this thread wont die. Oh, and poker isn't technically gambling, when you know what you are doing. It's understanding human movements, risk management, and grinding it out.

I believe that we aren't geting the full story on their boards. I don't believe that they ranked the 3 OL guys, significantly, lower then the 3 they selected. And, yes, I believe that they should have taken, one of the 3 OL (and the Center Collins in the 5th) to plug "all" the O-line holes. "If", winning more than 4 or 5 games next year, was their target. I'm not sure how I can be more clear.

Lets break your qeustion down. First part. "Do you believe your board was superior to theirs". First, thats a loaded question. Second, I dont beleive they are telling us what their "real" board was. Second part. "or do you believe they should have drafted for your version of their NEED over their board BPAs in Round 3?" nice loaded, compound question, BTW. Haha. I believe they would select their 3 if maximizing the 09 draft was the goal. I believe they would select one of my 3 and a center if winning in 08 was the goal.

Jay, It was fun to watch your brain implode, in those last few posts, but im afraid I cant continue to go rounds, as it seems you've lost your chit. Haha. That way, madness lies. But it was fun. Lets do it again when I come up with a new conspiracy theory:D

Oh, I have a solution to the Israli/Palastinian question. It's Coln. Kurtz solution. "Exterminate all the Brutes". Other than that, no solution.

No. Its all good Jason. I was basically agreeing with you and giving my .02 cents to why we would go 10-6. But yeah. We're good.

Now, my 10-6 prediction could be a but optimistic, but as my boy ComeSackMyQB would say, "We're gonna suprise some people this year."

Big ups to CSMQB!

xxxlp:

Just as I felt Double D was right about ceasing "shaving" talk, I think you are right about the need for a cease-fire at this point.

You are now my nominee to negotiate a lasting peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and with the rest of the Axis of Evil (Iran and North Korea). Good luck; look forward to reading your future posts about your progress! We'll keep you posted on the Chiefs' progress during your absence.

MB you just made yourself out to be a damn fool. You claim that it never mentions when Carl took the gamepad away. You outline the three third round picks directly after the quote, with the first two of those picks you wrote "Carl wants," and "Carl sees." I'm done arguing with you because you don't play by the rules, you twist everything and I imagine you win a lot of arguments with children by confusing them, but it doesn't work here. If you are not in politics you should throw your hat in, you remind me of the Clintons, always moving the goal posts. Either way you're working way too hard to explain a damn good draft. Teams that draft good players win, the chiefs are on the road to winning. I put your whole post below so you can't wiggle out of it.

"I don’t know about this second day. It’s almost like Carl wrestled away the gamepad from Herm/Kuharich. I mean think about this…

1-3rd Jamaal Charles: Carl wants to put preasure on Lary Johnson to perform next year. Herm is gona run Johnson into the Ground, but get good numbers next year. With good numbers, Carl has potential trade bate in Johnson, or an insurance policy if Herm breaks him.

2-3rd Brad Cottam: Carl sees definate trade bate in Tony G. as he draws close to the end of his career. Think Montana/Rice, end of career, trade value.

3-3rd DaJuan Morgan: Herm wants to put preasure on Page/Pollard to perform (not a half bad idea), but shows waaaay too much focus on safeties; sacrificing O-Line/QB’s, cause safeties/CB’s is what herm knows.

So, at second glance, these three 3rds seem a lil ominous. They are good picks, just maybe not good picks for us, and our situation. But then again, In herm I trust, he and his staff put a LOT of work into this draft. But, “in herm I trust”, is quickly turning into, “in herm im a little nervous but remain comited to his drafting wisdom”."

By all accounts both of you are intelligent men that both share a love of the Kansas City Chiefs, so I declare a cease-fire and put your arguments aside, let's get excited about this season gentlemen. Our O-line is better, our WR depth is better, our TE blocking has gotten better, our RB depth is better, our D-line is ~the same, unless Tank and Turk step up, in which case; it's better as well. Our LB's have gotten both younger and faster, with the addition of Williams, and our CB's, while probably not being better, WILL be better than Surtain/Law were for us these last couple season, and our safeties have gotten better. Our return game has gotten better, with not one, but 2-3 plausible returners in the mix, which is 2-3 more than we had last year. Cough Eddie Drummond's a little girl, cough cough. Sorry, my throat.. Anyway, there's plenty to be excited about (Although I hope we get high drafts picks next year as well, to further augment our team with youth and badass-ness) so let's pull a hippie stunt and join eachother in sending waves of good vibes crashing into the Chief's as they attend off-season workouts. Voila. I should be sent to the Middle East.

Nice work John, you got to the essence of what I was trying to get to. MB, you make all sorts of random statements, and I can believe you have a JD because you speak in circles trying to confuse the issue. Answer John's question.

MB:

Good quals.! Where do or did you practice law? On this end, B.S. in Economics (which always stipulates "all other things being equal" but still gets applied in real world, open systems), M.B.A. with Distintiction from Harvard Business School, former management consultant (9 yrs) with the leading, global consulting firm and Chief Operating Officer of a publicly held medical device company that delivered a 15%+ compound annual rate of return to its shareholders over the 17 years I was there. Don't play poker or buy lottery tickets, BUT I DID STAY AT A HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS LAST NIGHT!

The point of both parts of the podcast was that the Chiefs in the draft room felt that such good players were falling to them in Round 3 that they did not want to trade up (Soren's question just happened to be about QB)and that during Round 3 there were no OLs on their board as highly rated as the players they took.

You did not answer my final question. Do you believe your board was superior to theirs or do you believe they should have drafted for your version of their NEED over their board BPAs in Round 3?

Don't dodge the question by trying to take refuge in another conspiracy theory or that we have to wait 2 or 3 years to see how your 3 and their 3 players actually perform. No one, other than Monday morning QBs, ever has the benefit of future info when making today's decisions.

It wasn't relevant to my argument, but feel free to let me know what you did for a living. Kinda curious actually. You present compelling arguments.

We know, that in draft week, 99.5% of what we hear is deception. How can anyone truely base a concrete argument on any of it? Yours is speculation. Mine is speculation. The only ones that truely know are Carl/Herm/Kunarch. And, they arent going to tell us that they strategicly drafted this year to maximise a good draft next year.

I have a B.S. in Psychology, a J.D., and a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineering Degree. These days I play poker semi-professionally. And, basicly, the draft is one big poker game. You can't use parsomony/KISS in poker, to great effect, for one simple reason. Deception. The first part of the shaving theory states, "all things being equal". That implies a simple system. That all variables are mostly accounted for. Deception blows that out of the water. Deception makes it a complex system and "all things are NOT equal".

Ok, next, the first part of statment 2. Great info, btw, I havent read that. But, drafting Brohm or Flacco is tertiary to my question in 84. Sure, I wanted to trade up for Brohm, but im thinking that herm isnt even conceptualizing a franchise Quarterback with his run based offense. Im afraid, we are going to go back to the Christian Akoye era of boring push forward 50 yards...push back 50 yards...push forward 50 yards, rinse and repeat. Another thing that I have been mulling over is that, I remeber hearing, during the draft, that Green Bay tried to trade up for Brohm before he dropped in their lap. It is possible we tried, and couldnt get a trading partner. That will never be known.

All right, the second part of 2. Basicly Kunarch is saying Charles, Cottam, and Morgan are better than Collins, Cousins, Nicks. There is what Bill thinks, what bill says, what you think, and what I think. We could go round and round on this point. But, I think we should save it for a year or two and see how these 6 perform. That would be a much better measure of what Bill "really probably thought." Your 3 need to perform better than my 3 to win. My 3 have to perform better or equal to your 3 to win. Equal because, if they are all 6 equal, they should have taken BPA and need v. just BPA. I win and my conspiracy theory looks more promising. Muahahaah.

According to Bill Kuharich from 4/30 podcast, The Chiefs see Richardson as a ROT.

roc thats cool just had alot of shit about the 10-6 and took it like you were saying i was wrong and trying to show me up, sorry about how i came off

MB:

1. KISS and the Principle of Parsimony (just another name for "shaving") are the same thing! Out of respect for Double D and others, I will speak no more of "shaving". You do assume an awful lot with virtually no factual info about me and my business career to conclude what I did and did not do! And, bottom line, that's your main problem. You are willing to build "air castles" without a factual foundation.

2. Now back to football and some "facts". In the second paragraph of comment 84 above, you make some assertions completly devoid of factual support. Moreover, they are clearly contradicted by Chiefs' VP of Player Personnel Bill Kuharich in his post-draft, 4/30 podcast interview by Soren Petro. (Check it out on the Chiefs' website.) Here is my Readers' Digest summary. First, Soren asked Bill whether they had considered moving up into the bottom of Round 2 to take either QB Joe Flacco or Brian Brohm. Bill replied that they discussed it briefly, but that the draft had unfolded in a somewhat surprising way to them with a number of players falling they had rated highly. So they knew they were going to be able to get some very good players in Round 3 and did not want to have to give any of those or other picks up. Then, when discussing the Round 3 picks, Soren asked Bill directly why they did not draft any more OLs in Round 3, since that was such a need and since many thought there were good OLs available. Bill's reply was that as they continued to re-stack their board to reflect the players that were falling to them, there were no OLs left of comparable value to their 3 picks. Listen to Bill's player-by-player descriptions, why they picked them and how they can help the Chiefs, both now and later.

Now, MB, either you believe your board, based upon what--the same mock draft sites and blogs available to the rest of us fans?-is superior to the Chiefs' board, which they spent over 2 years and hundreds of thousands maybe millions of $ developing, OR you believe they should have gone NEED over clear-cut (to them) BPA. Which is it? The first is a question of strength of factual foundation, which you have already demonstrated you devalue. The rest is a question of draft/team rebuilding philosophy, which I, and I suspect a number of others, would be quite willing to debate with you.

Jason... Don' flatter yourself bro. I wasnt trying to diss what your perdictions were. I was simply stating MY opinion on the matter... I can do that right? I think so... Plus I was a little buzzed and bored. So pardon me.

Anyway, on to a more relevant comment.

Double D. I typed in Richardson in as RG cause I would like to see the guy prosper. I would ALSO like to see Alibi step up.

Next I see Donnie Edwards moving to MLB. He is one of the most intelligent and game knowleged player in the NFL. We need to let loose of DJ so he can run wild. And Nap Harris is the one with the job to lose to DeMorrio Williams.

Page is good, but DaJaun Morgan is great!

I wonder what kind of shaving cream Dorsey uses. Probably motor oil and a lawnmower blade.

How 'bout we talk less about shaving and more about football?

There we go. I chopped it up and it worked. Weierd. I've typed longer comments than that and they went.

John,

Open system use, of Occams razor, is NOT Occams razor. You can't just throw out the first part of the principal "all things being equal". Congradulations on your success in business. Business is extremely complex. The razor does not apply. You found the simplest explanation for something, and went with it. You were probably successful because the other guy was practicing another principal of mine "KISS"...."Keep it Simple Stupid". Human interaction and business dealings are extremely complex. What you did is "saw the angles". That is a probability calculation. And, works in a lot of situations.

But anyways, use your probability calculation on this. The three 3rd round picks were backups and best players available. There were easily three 3rd round picks that filled need and were best players available. Why go with the former?

Jay,

Your fall back position is logic? Somewhere, Spock is cringing. Thanks for digging up those statements, though. Lets play with "logic" a little bit, shall we.

1. “I don’t know about this second day. It’s almost like Carl wrestled away the gamepad from Herm/Kuharich.”

Never sais "when" Herm wrestled the gamepad away from Herm/Kunarich

2. “Ok, now Herm said that he got the guys that he was targeting all along for second day. That meant, like 1st degree murder, it was premeditated!”

Right, Herm wanted these guys before day two started. Carl could have exerted his influence over these picks weeks ago. Your symantics argument is flawed. Quit playing with "logic", your gona hurt yourself. Haha.

MB:

Another conspiracy; clearly you are being censored! Even the very late William of Ockham would have to agree that this is the simplest explanation.

ROC -

I think it's highly doubtful that Richardson will come in as a starter. More likely will be from among Taylor, Svitek, Alibi, Smith, Jones, Stallings - guys like that. For now, I see Richardson, much like Merritt at TE, being used to spell starters and also come in in situations where we are trying to eat up clock with the run.

(Even though I can't stand Mizzou) I'd love to see Franklin win out as the #2 WR - we'll just have to wait and see on that I guess.

Last I heard, left DE is Boone's job to lose - if that's case, I really can't see McBride challenging him for that spot just yet. There should some competition for the other DT slot but if I had to guess right now, I'd say it's probably going to be Tyler. I also think that Edwards is currently slated for WLB and Johnson for SLB. Hard to speculate on who will end up at MLB - I imagine there will be some healthy competition for that slot - not a bad thing.

I think Page is a pretty decent player considering he's only played what, 2 seasons?, & is still developing - I fully expect him to stay the starter at FS. I also tend to think that McGraw will be the #2 FS and that Morgan provide some needed depth at SS plus share back-up duties at FS. I mainly look for Morgan to make his biggest impact on ST this season.

damn ROC what did you do switch maybe ONE of my predictions?

MB, Its probably such a phenomenal argument to support your case that no one would ever need to read the site again, they will have found chiefs fan nirvana. AA couldn't possibly let that happen because they must have the advertising dollars. Get out the tin foil and coat hangers!

WTF...why wont my long post get posted?

Im pretty bored, if you cant tell. And as my boy Dave would say, "burning that late night fuel"....

2008 Depth Chart:

WR-Bowe
WR-Webb
TE-Gonzalez
LT-Albert
LG-Waters
C-Niswanger
RG-Richardson
RT-McIntosh
HB-L. Johnson
FB-Cox
QB-Croyle

LE-McBride
DT-Dorsey
DT-Tyler
RE-Hali
WLB-D. Johnson
MLB-Edwards
SLB-N. Harris
CB-Surtain
CB-Flowers
FS-Morgan
SS-Pollard

K-Cundiff
P-Colquitt
KR/PR-K. Robinson

Week 1 at New England: Tom Brady goes from facing 1 dominant D Line to another as Glenn Dorsey shows what he brings to the Chiefs AND what he can do to O lines, Running Backs and Quarterbacks. Close one... But we'll take a loss. (When that games going on, it MAY be the booze, but I'll be cheering like we ARE going to win) ... Of to Arrowhead. (0-1)

Week 2 Oakland: Run DMC will grab a a touchdown or 2, but I think our D shuts down the Chokeland Offense. As out 3 main boys on O take care of business. (LJ- 2 TD's. D Bowe- 1 TD. Gonzo- 1 TD) We WILL NOT GO 0-2! (1-1)

Week 3: at Atlanta: Dorsey dominates. Ryan continues to struggle early in the season. KC steals one in the dirty ATL. (2-1)

Week 4 Denver: THIS Season, the tides have turned. Denver is at the bottom of the AFC West. We win. LJ RUNS WILD! (Champ Bailey will want to be traded after this season.) (3-1)

Week 5 at Carolina: This game will go 1 of 2 ways. Either we kick the crap outta the Panthers or we lose by a field goal in the last seconds.... We arent New England. We lose by a field goal. (3-2)

Week 7 Tennessee: Not this time Vince! Flip these two numbers.. and it'll tell you the story of the game< 27-72 (27= Larry Johnson. 72= Glenn Dorsey) They take control. Win. (4-2)

Week 8 at New York Jets: As much as I wanna say that we'll win, cause we've lost to these queers 1 TOO MANY times... We lose. The Jets O-Line takes it to our boys... Sadly. (4-3)

Week 9 Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia meets our linebacking corps. As his mobilty fools no one. Dorsey has a big game too. D.Bowe and Gonzo works the D in the middle of the field. (5-3)

Week 10 at San Diego: Win... Why? Cause Im going to this game... They HAVE to win... They BETTER win! (6-3)

Week 11 New Orleans: Our O-Line kills it. As this is the game that our O-Line becomes a cohesive unit. With their work, LJ has another HUGE game. 3 TDs. Win in KC. (7-3)

Week 12 Buffalo: This one will be close. But LJ yet AGAIN runs over another D...Our FB needs to have a big game in this one, needing to take out guys like Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, in order for us to stick in this one. We lose. (7-4)

Week 13 at Oakland: We'll win... C'mon. They've beat us ONCE in 5 years... Enough said. (8-4)

Week 14 at Denver: "Loss Do we EVER win in Denver?" (8-5)

Week 15 San Diego : Loss. LT is shut down by our D-Lone and Derrick Johnson taking his ass out behind the line of scrimmage at least 3 times. Norv Turner gives up on LT and heads to the air. Rivers throws 2 TDs all game, and from there its a kicking match. They eek us out. After the game, though SD wins, LT lashes out at the post-game press conference. (8-6)

Week 16 Miami: ACTUALLY, a really close game. Ronnie Brown vs Larry Johnson... For reals? We win. (9-6)

Week 17 at Cincinnati: Now, here we are again. Playing Cincy the final game of the season... Last time we played them in Week 17 of the '05 season, didnt we kill these guys like 30 something to 10 or whatever? LJ ran wild on these cats. I see LJ going off again. And their team hasnt changed much since then. If anything they got worse... PLUS, at this point, we're trying to get a playoff spot. Chiefs win the finale and hope for some help to make it in. (10-6)

ive never really heard anything about this pig brown either...enlighten me please

this is off KFFL....
Chiefs | Leak to get tryout with team
Thu, 1 May 2008 21:01:36 -0700

Jeffrey Flanagan, of the Kansas City Star, reports free-agent QB Chris Leak (Bears) will get a tryout with the Kansas City Chiefs. Head coach Herman Edwards said the team will try him as a quarterback instead of converting him to another position

what do you guys think about chris leak..he is tryin out for the team..

Good Job Double D!!

MasterBlaster might run barter town, but he doesn't run Arrowhead Addict! I put a hex on you MB! That is why you're posts aren't getting through. Just Kidding!

Tech support! I had a monster post that didn't go through. When I tried to repost it; it said duplicate posts. Am I being sensored? haha

Anyways, Double D, good comments. But remeber, only 5 or 6 of these guys are gona pan out. And, thats based on history and having an AWESOME draft. Which I think we had. So, pick 6 of the players mentioned, of your choice, 86 em, then recalulate that "from 4-12 12-4" statement. Interesting insights.

I'll guess I'll go ahead and jump in here and add a couple of thoughts about where I see this team going this coming season.

First off, I agree with those who say that rookies normally take a little bit of time (2 to 3 years typical) before they start playing really quality ball. However, I believe a critical exception to that rule of thumb is special teams. Rookies very often can make a significant impact to that part of the game. Few teams had as a bad of special teams as did the Chiefs last year and field position was a major problem for us because it significantly hampers what an offense (and defense as well) can do in terms of play-calling.

Based on who they acquired on day 2, I honestly believe the Chiefs made excellent selections for improving special and I think/hope it will show immediate rewards on special teams play this coming season. If I'm right, that is huge and alone could win us an extra or two all other things being equal.

Secondly, even with the loss of Jared Allen, I'm leaning towards believing that this defense will be an improvement over what we saw last year. I say that as somebody who thinks our defense was pretty good already and would have been better a lot better, statistically at least, where it not for the fact that offense couldn't score points in the first (or second) half and so everybody in the league simply ground it out against them in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Pretty hard to rack up defensive stats under those kind of circumstances.

Anyway, back to my point about this defense now being better. I maintain that Tambi Hali was a major part of Jared Allen's success last because of Hali was so effective at applying pressure from the left and thus driving QBs into Jared. Hali did so even with TEs blocking him and virtually no pressure from inside. With Dorsey now at DT, we get a guy who can both rush the QB and stuff the run. As I understand it, we will have an experienced, physical DL, Alfonso Boone, playing left DE and Hali replacing Allen at right DE. On top of that, we now have a young, talented cover 2 guy to take over for Ty Law. The LB core is also being repositioned to take better advantage of their various combinations of speed and experience. As I size all this up, I actually envision a better overall defense and I won't at all be surprised to see cumulative sack total go up and can totally see Hali getting in excess of 10 sacks just by himself.

On offense, I think there is no arguing we'll have a better OL, better blocking TEs, a healthy LJ, an outstanding change of pace RB in Charles, D Bowe, Tony G, a legitimate deep threat at WR, and what appears to a true lead-blocking FB in Cox. Best of all, we have a proven OC who won't require on-the-job training. The biggest remaining question mark is QB and for any team that is rooted primarily in the run game, the quality of the QB is more of an afterthought. The main requirement for such QBs is that they control the clock, make high percentage passes when needed, and above all, not turn the ball over - think Drew Bledsoe.

As in any year, all that really remains to be seen is how quickly and how well this team develops the proper chemistry and how well it executes.

Between current talent, the draft, our schedule, and FA acquisitions (current and potentially acquired between now and the start of the season), all considered, I can envision this team ending up anywhere from 4-12 to 12-4. How well they do will depend a lot on quickly (and consistently) they win and when they reach critical mass in terms of believing in themselves.

I don't expect much this year other than just wanting it to be fun from a fan's perspective. I want to see exciting football and games where we are in it even if we end up losing. What I don't ever want to see again is horrible special teams play, lack of running lanes and Brodie taking 3 step drops and getting sacked every other play. Hopefully we've at least turned the corner and that's all behind us now.

All I'm asking for is to make it to the Championship game one time in the next 10 years. Not even the SB, although if we do make it that far, I'll be writing on here how much money I'm betting, because that WILL be our year to win the Super Bowl.. I can't take much more of this "YES! We made the playoffs!" Fast forward one week: "Oh my God, we just got bent over the table by the Colts and got worked." Please Carl/Herm, aka 'Cerm', lead us to the promised land or GTFO.

also remember 10-6 in 2008

ARGH!!! You guys are killing me!! All I can say is, the Chiefs will be better this year (I know it), and I hope they make all of you eat your own words!!

xxxlp don't tell me you are going to be a Faider Fan, it breaks my heart.

Just remember this:

"WE PLAY TO WIN!" (by Herm Edwards)

"WE DON'T PLAY TO TANK" (by Jeremy (Riverside, CA)

MB:

1. First, my apologies to the very late William of Ockham, 14th century English logician and Franciscan friar, the originator of the Principle of Ockham's (Occam's Razor). I credited his principle in a comment in a previous thread, but failed to do so again here.

2. I would never try to explain anything to Al Davis! He is hopeless--you are not; you seem smart, just wrong in this instance.

3. I made good use of Occam's Razor during my business career, hardly a closed system--good enough use that I was able to retire @ age 51. Logic is just as useful in open as in closed systems; in open systems it is just more difficult.

4. I do agree with you that the Chiefs' are likely to be drafting pretty high again in 2009--not because of some 2008 draft conspiracy or plan not to play to win. The explanation most consistent with the Principle of Occam's Razor is that when NFL teams get as old and have as manny holes as the Chiefs last year, it just takes time to fill all the holes with talented players and for those players to raise their level of play AS A TEAM to NFL champioship calibre. For my part, I have changed my focus for the next 2 years from the ultimate destination to the journey toward it.

You probably didn't think I'd actually go back and do my homework, but unlike you, I don't just pull this crap off the top of my head.

Open Thread: Draft Windup post #12

"I don’t know about this second day. It’s almost like Carl wrestled away the gamepad from Herm/Kuharich."

Merlin's 2008 Chiefs draft review post #30

"Ok, now Herm said that he got the guys that he was targeting all along for second day. That meant, like 1st degree murder, it was premeditated!"

So Herm pre-determined that Carl would take over the "gamepad" as you put it, and somehow magically got Carl to pick everything he wanted on day two."

And if you are going to trust Herm on what he says about day two of the draft, why don't you trust him on "Play to win the game." Or pick the best player available. This is what conspiracy theorists do, they pick and choose statements to formulate a ridiculous argument, with very little logic involved. Again, its a hoot to read these things, but I think you'll find that we are an 8-8 team this year at least. I forgot to put another wild card in there, we have the fifth worst strength of schedule this year. While that may change some, its a good place to start.

You forgot some wild cards. Chan Gailey, and the fact that several of our starters will be second and third year guys that by all accounts, with some playing time under their belts should be better players.

The reason your head hurts so much is I'm using a time tested tool for arguments, its called logic. You are using speculation, and imagination. Doesn't make for a very good discussion.

Why next years team will be a LOT like this years 4-12 team.

1. Glenn Dorsey/Jarred Allen: Basicly this was a swap. Dorsey is gona have to get 15 sacks in 2008 just to break even with JA in a 4-12 year. I think Warren Sapp had about 10 sacks his first year. I sense Al Davis is gona Run DMC outside rather than up the middle. Problem solved.

2. Phat Albert: This is our one pure upgrade. Ok, so Brody Croyle is gona get sacked 15 times instead of 55 times. Klinger was actually a good QB till he got sacked 85 times in 2 year. I bet Croyle got beat into a Klinger mentality. Croyle sucks. And like I said, if Coryle ends up being the next Derick Anderson, I will sing "I'm a little tea pot" on here 100 times next season.

3. Flowers/Carr: might be a little bit better than Surtain/Law next year. They have a LOT of growing to do. Growing flowers (snicker)

4. Charles/Cottam: backup

5. Franlkin: bolster our WR core a bit. Lots of learning to do. Hez a burner

6. The rest: we might get a return guy in Kevin Robinson

Ok ok. Maybe 5-11. But do you kinda see how we ran to stay in one place? How the team isnt gona be that much different next year? I submit, its gona be a LOT different in 2 years..especially after another great draft. But, if you think next year is (or should be) anything more than a rebuilding year, your smokin the good stuff.

It makes my head hurt to watch you think Jay. Anyways, tell me the two places I made those "supposed" statments. I don't think you got em quite right.

First one...Carl took over the draft in the third round so as to trade away our better players next year.

Kinda, I think I said he may have had a hand in the second round picks to focus on good backups so that Tony G. and LJ may be trade bait next year. A total Carl move if you ask me. Saves money.

Second...Herm has had this draft planned for a long time to draft players that will keep us at 4-12.

Kinda, I said that before the draft, herm selected his players, and he got who he wanted on the second day. Thats Herm talking. The players he got are backups and dont fill need. This makes us a similar team next year. I'll explain that in the next post.

Interesting comments, John. It's called Occam's razor: all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be true. However, this theory works best in a closed system or vaccum. NFL drafting and poker mentality are the exact opposite. Go explain "all things being equal" to ,Al Davis, haha.

We've only just missed the playoffs, or made the playoffs and lost in the first round... Oh... almost every year since the late 80's/early 90's? It's getting tiresome. If we make the playoffs I get excited, we lose, I'm bummed for a couple weeks. I'm tired of the roller coaster, where we get close, epically fail, draft late, draft well, but it's never enough to push us over the hump. And as much as I don't want to throw a season, I'm all for it. You do get higher end picks that can help us. And yes, you bring up that we did draft poorly PRE-HERM. Since Herm has been here, they've done a good job of bringing in talent. You, nor anyone, can deny that. In the last couple years there's only a handful of players that havn't made meaningful contributions, and only one player that I recall that absolutely F'd us. Cough Medlock cough cough. And statistically he was the best kicker in the draft. I'm tired of getting excited and being let down. I'd rather lose now, get far stronger, and then make a push in '09-'10. I know they're not going to do it, I know we have players like Tony and Brian and Donnie that we can't let down, but mark my words if we go through 10 more years of this BS where we either don't make it, or lose in the 1st round.. I'll be becoming a Fader Fan.