What we've learned about the Denver Broncos so far this season

The Denver Broncos have had it rough lately. A third-place finish in 2023 and a fourth-place finish in 2022 have tainted a historically great franchise. However, their current record has them tied for 3rd in the AFC.

Is this a fluke or has Sean Payton hit his stride and found a path to contention? Here's what we know about the Broncos this far into the season.

1. Bo Nix is not the long-term answer at QB

The safest bet on draft night was that the Denver Broncos, led by head coach Sean Payton, would take Bo Nix (quarterback out of Oregon) with their first pick in the 2023 draft. Nix's pre-draft evaluation had him as a can't-miss prospect with a low ceiling and a high floor—essentially, the perfect prospect for a Sean Payton offense that doesn't require the quarterback to be an elite athlete, but can be effective by making quick reads and delivering an accurate ball. This has not been an accurate description of his tenure so far.

In Nix's first 5 games for the Broncos, he ranks 25th in completion percentage and QBR (quarterback ranking), 29th in touchdowns thrown, and 31st in passer rating. Not only that, but in his first two games with the Broncos, he threw 4 back-breaking interceptions that cost them both games.
Often he lacks composure in the pocket, throws inaccurate balls downfield, and doesn't go through his progressions.

When the Chiefs face the Broncos in week 10, Nix will not be the greatest determining factor in whether the Chiefs win or lose.

2. Broncos GM George Paton is on the hot seat

Broncos general manager George Paton has had his crack at four NFL drafts since he was hired in 2021, yet only a few of his picks have become major contributors. Not only that, but his handling of the Russell Wilson contract extension, Wilson's departure, coaching hires, and their lack of impact free-agency signings has soured his relationship with the fanbase.

Of the 31 players drafted over his tenure, only 11 have played in a majority of their games. Even still, only 3 of these players (Patrick Surtain II, Nik Bonitto, and Jonathon Cooper) could be considered "elite".

The known blunder of Russell Wilson's contract extension is also still fresh in Broncos' fans' minds, as his $53 million cap hit is still on the books (not to mention the $32 million due next year). His exit was also somewhat of a disaster, seeing how he was released (not traded) and went to an AFC rival in the Pittsburg Steelers.

A series of blunders has followed this franchise since Peyton Manning's departure in 2015 and the patience of the fanbase is wearing thin. The lack of depth on the roster means they have a problem winning close games with the contenders, so the Chiefs matchup shouldn't be close. Lastly, major moves are coming (and sooner rather than later).

Patrick Surtain II is the best pure coverage corner in the AFC West

As much as Trent McDuffie has the hearts of Chiefs fans everywhere, there's another cornerback in the AFC West that is turning heads. Patrick Surtain II has been phenomenal since he arrived in Denver and that train doesn't look like it will slow down anytime soon.

Most recently against the Raiders, McDuffie tallied two interceptions for one hundred yards and a touchdown, two passes deflected, and three tackles. His pick-six in that game went the full one hundred yards. During his rookie season (2021), he had four interceptions, 14 passes deflected, and one touchdown.

As well as McDuffie has played during his tenure with the Chiefs, he has never reached highs like this. Any offensive game-planning for the future matchup between the Chiefs and the Broncos should start with identifying number two, pulling him deep downfield, and throwing away from his direction. Other than Surtain II, however, no one on the Broncos' defense warrants a major shift in the game plan.

So, are the Broncos contenders or pretenders? In short, pretenders. Their quarterback play from Bo Nix has been less than stellar and their depth on both sides of the ball (due to poor drafts from their GM) will prevent them from making any noise in the postseason. Combine those with Sean Payton's history of unsuccessful seasons and it's hard to imagine they will pose any real threat to the Chiefs.