We're nearing the halfway mark of the 2026 NFL regular season, and the Kansas City Chiefs are 5-2. The Chiefs got off to a 5-0 start, defeating the Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and Chargers before dropping back-to-back games to the Seahawks and Broncos.
Now that we're close to the midway point, let's hop in the ol' time machine and revisit what was said about the Chiefs before the season began. K.C. was an interesting team because no one really knew how healthy Patrick Mahomes was and how he'd look coming back from the ACL injury that he suffered in December.
Because of that, no one felt super confident putting the Chiefs in the top tier. That makes sense considering how important Mahomes is to this team.
So, with that said, let's revisit what some analysts predicted for the Chiefs in 2026.
ESPN: Best-case scenario 12-5, worst 7-10
ESPN went through every team in the league and gave a few different predictions, such as best-case and worst-case scenarios, biggest strength, biggest concern, how the season can be a success, and a few other things. For the Chiefs, Nate Taylor said that the best-case scenario for Kansas City record-wise would be a 12-5 record, while the worst would be going 7-10.
Taylor nailed that the run game would be the biggest strength (well, behind Mahomes, of course). "The Chiefs have revitalized their rushing attack with Kenneth Walker III, Emari Demercado and rookie Emmett Johnson. All three are an upgrade from the position a year ago. And all three have the skills to break tackles for explosive gains to better support Mahomes." Obviously, Demercado didn't make it to the regular season, but Taylor was right on the money with everything else here.
He said the biggest concern was "a lack of depth" and pointed to the offensive line and linebackers. Both have proven to be valid concerns eight weeks into the season.
Lastly, Taylor said the Chiefs' season would be a success if Mahomes remained healthy and if the rookies stepped up. Valid.
The Ringer and Pro Football Talk both ranked Chiefs at No. 13
Diante Lee of The Ringer and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk both released power rankings ahead of the season and put the Chiefs at 13th. Lee figured anything was possible with the Chiefs while Florio simply said, "Don’t sleep on Patrick Mahomes. Ever."
Lee added more context to his rankings. He said that Mahomes could very well lead the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl or the wide receivers would ultimately drag the team down. Huh, imagine that.
"The addition of running back Kenneth Walker III could give this offense some badly needed explosive play potential, or the Chiefs could be inconsistent in the stale, RPO-heavy scheme that head coach Andy Reid has run for the past decade," Lee wrote. "It would be dishonest to rank the Chiefs among the obvious contenders given all the questions I have about this team. If I’m to believe things are back to how they once were, Kansas City needs to take advantage of its easy schedule to start the season."
Hard to argue with any of that. The Chiefs did take advantage of their early-season schedule and now need to ride the wave as the more difficult games approach in a few weeks.
NFL.com barely had Chiefs in top half of the rankings
Nick Shook of NFL.com took his best shot at ranking the team ahead of the season and put the Chiefs at 15th, meaning he basically saw them as an average team. He said a lot of their 2026 season would depend on the health of Mahomes, which is fair.
"I have some concerns regarding Kansas City's rebuilt secondary, largely because it depends heavily on rookie Mansoor Delane to produce immediately and is also (perhaps overambitiously) hoping L'Jarius Sneed can rediscover his excellence opposite Delane. I'm also still not overly excited about what the receiving corps offers, especially with Xavier Worthy dealing with another shoulder issue."
Those were all valid concerns then, and they're still valid now. When Mansoor Delane has played, he's been special, but he's been injured during his rookie season. Shook was right on the money with the wide receivers, though, making it even more frustrating that Brett Veach didn't do more when he had the chance.
CBS Sports said KC would go 10-7 and finish 2nd in AFC West
John Breech of CBS Sports was yet another writer who had more faith in the Broncos than the Chiefs. He said that getting Mahomes back would be important but the team had him last year and still struggled. I will give him credit for predicting the Chargers wouldn't be as good as everyone thought, though he still had them going 9-8.
"Also, the Chiefs have a huge question mark on defense in the form of a secondary that lost both starting corners (Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie) and a starting safety (Bryan Cook) during the offseason. As for the Chargers, they have one of the most difficult eight-week stretches that any team has ever faced in NFL history. "
It's fair to question the defense coming into the season, and some of those questions still remain eight weeks into the campaign.
Which preseason predictions have held up?
Looking through these predictions shows that people were really hesitant to rank the Chiefs higher due to the uncertainty of Patrick Mahomes' health. Well, he's shown that he's more than healthy so far, but the ones who questioned the wide receivers, lack of depth, and defensive issues weren't wrong in doing so.
The Broncos were the sexy pick to win the division, and so far, it looks like that could end up playing out. There is still a lot of football left to be played, however, and we know how Mahomes does when people doubt him.
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