Updated AFC playoff picture shows Chiefs facing near-impossible odds now

Yeah, it's not happening.
Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs | Jamie Squire/GettyImages

For anyone who still had hope that the Kansas City Chiefs would sneak into the playoffs and cause some chaos, those dreams have been completely dashed after the debacle against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs are now 6-7 after Week 14 and it's clear that K.C. is not destined for the postseason in 2025.

The Chiefs used to thrive off finding ways to win tight games but they've been horrible at doing that this year. They've also struggled to stay healthy. Throw all of that, plus other teams simply just catching up to them in the talent department, and it's been a recipe for a disaster of a season.

The loss to the Texans pretty much ended any hopes of this team reaching the playoffs and while that's a weird visual, it's the timeline we're living in now. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

  1. Denver Broncos (11-2, 1st in AFC West)
  2. New England Patriots (11-2, 1st in AFC East)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4, 1st in AFC South)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 1st in AFC North)
  5. Buffalo Bills (9-4, 2nd in AFC East)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 2nd in AFC West)
  7. Houston Texans (8-5, 2nd in AFC South)
  8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5, 3rd in AFC South)
  9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7, 2nd in AFC North)
  10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7, 3rd in AFC West)
  11. Miami Dolphins (6-7, 3rd in AFC East)
  12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9, 3rd in AFC North)
  13. New York Jets (3-10, 4th in AFC East) - Eliminated
  14. Cleveland Browns (3-10, 4th in AFC North) - Eliminated
  15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11, 4th in AFC West) - Eliminated
  16. Tennessee Titans (2-11, 4th in AFC South) - Eliminated

Chiefs have a slim chance to make playoffs after loss to Texans

With the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens all sitting at 6-7, the three-way tiebreaker came down to conference record, which the Ravens boasted the best record at 4-5. The Chiefs' conference record after the loss to Houston was 3-5 and the Dolphins' conference record sits at 3-6 so there's the breakdown there.

According to NextGen Stats, the Chiefs have just a 15% chance of making the playoffs now that they've lost to the Texans and moved to 6-7 on the year. So, not good odds there for the reigning AFC champs to simply get into the playoffs. The Texans increased their chances of getting into the dance with this win, moving into the seventh seed due to their win over the Colts last week. Houston is still very much alive in the AFC South race as well.

What makes this playoff picture even worse for the Chiefs though is seeing the Broncos at the top of the AFC with a solid chance to land the top seed in the playoffs. The Patriots have an easier schedule so they could pry that number one seed away from Denver but if the two teams have the same record by season's end, the Broncos would get the edge there.

At the end of the day, the Chiefs only have themselves to blame for this disappointment of a season. Hopefully, missing the postseason will push Brett Veach to seriously evaluate the weaknesses on the roster and make some moves this offseason. Otherwise, this team might sink even further next year if changes aren't made.

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