Updated AFC playoff picture highlights significance of Chiefs' comeback win vs. Colts

Kansas City's Week 12 victory has monumental ramifications on the conference postseason outlook and race for Super Bowl LX at large.
Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs | Jamie Squire/GettyImages

If it feels like the Kansas City Chiefs just dodged a massive bullet, that's because they did. The three-time reigning AFC champions saw their 2025 playoff lives flash before them in Week 12, and Patrick Mahomes rose to the occasion.

Mahomes dusted off his cape and gave the Chiefs a heroic performance to propel them to a colossal 23-20 overtime victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It was reminiscent of what we've grown accustomed to seeing from him throughout his legendary career thus far -- until this year.

The patented Mahomes magic that has made the Chiefs the poster child of the league for nearly a decade hasn't been as prevalent in 2025. However, he pulled a rabbit out of his hat when the team needed him most and all but saved their playoff hopes.

With that in mind, let's take a look at where the Chiefs sit in the AFC standings following their season-altering defeat of the Colts.

Updated AFC playoff standings after Chiefs' season-altering win over Colts

  1. New England Patriots (10-2, first in AFC East)
  2. Denver Broncos (9-2, first in AFC West)
  3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3, first in AFC South)
  4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5, first in AFC North)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, second in AFC West)
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4, second in AFC South)
  7. Buffalo Bills (7-4, second in AFC East)
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5, second in AFC North)
  9. Houston Texans (6-5, third in AFC South)
  10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5, third in AFC West)
  11. Miami Dolphins (4-7, third in AFC East)
  12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-8, third in AFC North)
  13. Cleveland Browns (3-8, fourth in AFC North)
  14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9, fourth in AFC West)
  15. New York Jets (2-9, fourth in AFC North)
  16. Tennessee Titans (1-10, fourth in AFC South)

Kansas City still faces an uphill battle in a conference that's somehow loaded and wide-open at the same time. Nevertheless, after dropping their head-to-head clashes with other contenders like the Broncos, Chargers, Bills and Jaguars, the margin for error is razor-thin. The Chiefs need to find ways to stack wins before it's too late, though taking down the Colts kept them in the hunt.

As crazy as it may seem, the Chiefs were hanging on by a thread against the Colts. A loss would've reduced their chances of reaching the postseason to 31 percent, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats. In contrast, beating Indy improved Kansas City's chances of making the win-or-go-home tournament to 59 percent.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations