Four games down, 13 to go. Up next is an early bye week for the Kansas City Chiefs, who enter their week off with a perfect 4-0 record through the first month of the season.
Having this early of a bye week can be both an advantage and a disadvantage, but it's the cards the Chiefs were dealt, and they'll have to make the most of it. The good news is that the Chiefs are perfect through the first quarter of the 2026 season. They've played four games and won all four of them. That's all you can ask for up to this point.
Now that the bye week is here and the Chiefs don't have a game to prepare for in Week 5, let's take a way-too-early look at the AFC playoff picture with four weeks of action in the books.
AFC Playoff Picture after Week 4
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
4. Cleveland Browns (3-1)
5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
6. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
7. New England Patriots (2-2)
8. Denver Broncos (2-2)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
10. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
12. New York Jets (1-3)
13. Miami Dolphins (0-4)
14. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
15. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
16. Houston Texans (0-4)
If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs would be the top seed in the AFC and would get the wild card round off. Meanwhile, the Jags would host the Patriots, the Bills would welcome the Raiders, and the Browns would host their division rivals, the Ravens. The Broncos would not be in the dance.
Obviously it's still way too early in the season to make much sense of the current playoff picture. Typically, the best time to start closely monitoring it is halfway through the regular season, but this is still interesting to see because it shows that the Chiefs are off to the best possible start. They're right back at the top of the conference where they belong.
It'd be pretty shocking if the Browns held serve in the AFC North and won that division, but crazier things have happened. Cleveland likely comes back down to earth in the next few weeks, though, and the same could be said for the Raiders, whose schedule gets much more difficult in the coming games.
There are playoff probabilities listed for every team as well, and Kansas City's is at 91%. Feels like pretty good odds there. As for the rest of the AFC West teams, the Raiders are 43%, the Broncos 63%, and the Chargers 6% (lol). It's interesting to see that the Broncos have a better percentage than Las Vegas, considering their record is better but that just goes to show that not everyone believes the Raiders can keep this up.
Looking at the Chiefs' next 4 games
After the Chiefs return from their bye, they'll have quite the up and down schedule.
- Week 6: vs. Chargers
- Week 7: at Seahawks (SNF)
- Week 8: at Broncos
- Week 9: vs. Jets
See what I mean? There are two "easier" games on there, obviously the two home tilts against the Chargers and Jets, but then two difficult road games in Seattle and Denver. Division matchups are always tough, though, so that home match against L.A. is not going to be a cakewalk, even if the Chargers are currently winless.
The good news for the Chiefs is that they'll be playing the Chargers off their bye week , and we know how good Andy Reid is off a bye. The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl champs, a designation the Chiefs know well, but they're not invincible by any means. Denver will be looking for revenge and a chance to jump up the standings. And the Jets have been playing decently despite not getting the results they want. Again, any given Sunday.
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