Statistics will not always tell the full story. The NFL is a week-to-week league and can deceive our thoughts at any moment on a given team. But as always, there are some notable trends to monitor going into specific matchups. That is true once again in the case of Sunday's AFC heavyweight bout between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
Sunday will mark the eighth all-time meeting between star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Mahomes and Kansas City have the slight edge in the previous seven games of the series, with a 4-3 mark, including playoffs. Interestingly, the Bills have won three straight times in the regular season when facing the Chiefs. But overall, KC has triumphed over Buffalo in all three playoff meetings between Mahomes and Allen. Five of their seven head-to-head games have been decided by nine points or less. Finally, all of the last four matchups have been decided by six points or less.
What are some other interesting statistical notes to monitor entering Chiefs vs. Bills? Here are three key stats going into Sunday's affair.
Tight End Target Shares
It is no secret that Travis Kelce is the most trusted target of the Chiefs offense. When he is able to make his presence felt, the completeness of Kansas City's attack can really stand out. And for years, Kelce has been able to remain in sync with Patrick Mahomes when it matters most. There is a growing similarity for the top tight end on Josh Allen's offense, as well. Dalton Kincaid has been a great, young addition to Buffalo's offense. He enters Sunday leading the Bills in targets this season.
It is safe to say that we can expect a fair amount of tight end targets from Kansas City. According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce has garnered at least 20 percent of their team's air yards this year. Kelce sits at a 29.73 percent share.
Kelce has also been on a tear the last few weeks. According to Matt McMullen, his 32 catches in the last three weeks lead the league over that span. 17 of his 32 grabs have also created first downs, ranking second in the NFL over that time. On the flip side, the Chiefs' struggles when trying to cover tight ends has been well-documented. Now that Kincaid has been ruled out with an injury, perhaps Dawson Knox will get an increase in targets. But without Kincaid, Kansas City may have dodged a heavy dose of Allen feeding his top tight end target.
Rushing Success For Hunt, Cook
The rushing success of Kareem Hunt and James Cook have been a major boost for each team's offense this year. Hunt has been able to amass 565 scrimmage yards in only six games played. That is pretty wild, when you consider he was not in training camp with anyone and joined Kansas City after Week 2. On the other end, Cook has provided some vital balance to the Bills offense, allowing their commanding offensive line to make their presence felt when working downhill.
If you look at rushing success rate, both Hunt (6th) and Cook (9th) rank in the top 10 in the NFL in that category, via Pro Football Reference. These two running backs are nearly identical in rushing success rate so far this year. Hunt currently sits at 56.8 percent and Cook currently sits at 55.5 percent.
Not many headlines are going to go towards the rushing attack when these two teams have the quarterbacks that they do. But in a year where the running backs and rushing are seeing a renaissance, games can be controlled early if your running game takes command. Both Hunt and Cook have proven that they can maintain that success rate throughout the entirety of games.
Opponent Passing Yards Per Game
Each of these defenses are well-coached. Both Kansas City and Buffalo execute at a rare level. Therefore, it is no surprise that each of the Chiefs and the Bills rank superbly as pass defenses. There have been different names that have been forced to step up on each of these respective units. But when it comes to throwing against them, the Chiefs and the Bills are neck-and-neck as pass defenses.
Via Team Rankings, Kansas City and Buffalo are both in the middle pack of the NFL in opponent passing yards per game. The Chiefs rank 14th with just 206.7 passing yards allowed per game. As for the Bills, they are ranked 18th with a similar 212.9 passing yards allowed per game.
If any of the previous Mahomes-Allen matchups are any indication, it can be a rarity to hit on explosive passes down the field. Whichever of these pass defenses limits the yards downfield or after the catch could easily make the difference in this contest.