The Kansas City Chiefs will be picking earlier in the first round of the NFL Draft than they are accustomed to. There will be plenty of time for Chiefs-centric mock drafts and position rankings to determine which prospects fit Kansas City best. But in the meantime, there are still many implications hanging over the final three weeks of the 2025 NFL regular season.
Playoff spots and seeding will still be fascinating to track. But as the Chiefs look to turn the page toward next season, they are joining many other losing squads in watching the final draft order take shape.
Kansas City would currently hold the 12th overall pick if the season ended today. Yet they could still move up or down in the pecking order over the next few weeks. With records still tightly clustered, a handful of other teams could sway where K.C. ultimately lands.
Which teams could affect the Chiefs the most in terms of final draft position? Let’s look at the standings and the biggest remaining games surrounding Kansas City’s range in the draft order. (Teams are listed by tiers from most impactful to least impactful.)
Most Impactful Tier
These teams are the most impactful on Kansas City’s draft slot because of the mix of their remaining schedules, performance volatility this season, and closest proximity to the Chiefs in the draft order.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are 4-10 and would currently hold the ninth pick in the draft. Their remaining games are at Miami, versus Arizona, and versus Cleveland. Cincinnati could win out, lose out, or land somewhere in between. They have simply been difficult to figure out all season.
Joe Burrow has had both strong and shaky moments since returning from injury. But whenever he is available, the Bengals have a better chance to win. Cincinnati is currently favored in its next two games against backup quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Jacoby Brissett. Recent history against rival Cleveland has resulted in close contests, though Cincinnati would likely be favored at home.
Depending on Kansas City’s final three results, it is feasible that the Bengals could finish with a better record.
Atlanta Falcons
It is rough to be a Falcons fan right now. Not only did the team fall well short of expectations, but Michael Penix Jr. is dealing with yet another knee injury in his career. On top of that, Atlanta does not even own its own first-round pick in 2026 after shipping it to the Los Angeles Rams. That is bad business when you fail to make the playoffs.
Atlanta is 5-9 and sits 10th in the draft order, with the Rams owning that pick. The Falcons finish the year at Arizona, versus the Rams, and versus New Orleans. They are less than a field-goal favorite in Arizona, then sit as just over a touchdown underdog against L.A. What they do against the Saints is anyone’s guess, which has been typical for Atlanta all season.
They did pull off an upset under unique circumstances in Tampa Bay, however. Perhaps they still rattle off a couple of wins down the stretch.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins sit at the 11th pick right now, just ahead of Kansas City, and share the same record as the Chiefs (6-8). Miami closes the season versus Cincinnati, versus Tampa Bay, and at New England.
After officially being eliminated from the playoff field, the Dolphins are making a quarterback change to the aforementioned Ewers. Whether Tua Tagovailoa ends up playing elsewhere next year is a question for another time. For now, Miami will have a significant impact on playoff implications in its final two games.
The Dolphins have played harder for head coach Mike McDaniel after a rollercoaster start. Would it be shocking if they pulled off an upset or two? Not really. But in a battle for draft positioning, the Chiefs’ backup quarterback carries more experience than Miami’s. With neither team using its regular starter, that difference could ultimately decide who finishes with the higher draft pick.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are right behind the Chiefs in the current draft order, sitting at 13. Minnesota also matches Kansas City’s record at 6-8 entering Week 15. They finish the season at the Giants, versus Detroit, and versus Green Bay. FanDuel lists them as roughly a field-goal favorite this week, while Detroit is just over a field-goal favorite next week.
Quarterback play has not been pretty for a Minnesota team built to win now in nearly every other area. Still, with head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are never easy to count out. They have already pulled off a couple of upsets. Will they find another?
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 6-7-1 and currently hold the 14th pick. Dallas’ final three games are versus the Chargers, at Washington, and at the Giants. They have lost two straight, including last week’s loss to Minnesota.
Despite the offseason tomfoolery surrounding the Micah Parsons situation, Dallas has assembled an entertaining roster. They could still win out with the talent they possess. Even with a worse record than the Chargers, the Cowboys are favored over Los Angeles and are also favored at Washington, with a likely edge against the Giants as well.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens could easily belong in a different tier. Lamar Jackson is still under center, and Baltimore is filled with experienced veterans. But the team has not fully clicked for four quarters over the past five or six games. They sit 15th in the draft order with a 7-7 record and will face New England at home, then travel to Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
Baltimore’s hopes of winning the division are still alive, likely hinging on the Week 18 meeting in Pittsburgh. Between the Ravens and Steelers, Baltimore arguably has the tougher matchups in Weeks 16 and 17. They are favored against New England, but Green Bay is currently favored the following week. That volatility leaves plenty of uncertainty heading into the final stretch.
The Indy Tier
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts stand alone in this tier. Philip Rivers coming out of retirement is a fun story, but given how the schedule stacks up, it is not far-fetched to see Indianapolis losing out. If that happens, the Colts would finish with seven straight losses and end the season 8-9 after starting 8-2. Their final three games are versus San Francisco, versus Jacksonville, and at Houston, all teams firmly in the playoff picture.
The Colts currently sit at the 18th pick, but that selection now belongs to the New York Jets after Indianapolis acquired Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. The Colts already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to Kansas City. If the Chiefs beat two of the league’s worst teams in Tennessee and Las Vegas with their backup quarterback, they could potentially slide behind Indianapolis in the draft order if the teams finish tied.
Moderately Impactful Tier
This tier includes teams with a moderate effect on Kansas City’s draft positioning, though they are the least impactful group overall based on current playoff races.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Call me crazy, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have a real shot to win the AFC North in a fairly conventional way. That is dangerous to say about this version of Pittsburgh. Still, a slight schedule advantage before the Baltimore rematch makes the Steelers less impactful than the Ravens in shaping the Chiefs’ draft slot.
Pittsburgh is 8-6 and holds a one-game lead over Baltimore. They play at Detroit and at Cleveland before hosting the Ravens. That Browns matchup could pay major dividends. If the regular-season finale becomes winner-take-all, Pittsburgh has gone 5-2 against Jackson in the regular season. Lamar Jackson has often delivered uneven performances against the Steelers.
Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Someone has to win the NFC South. The Panthers and Buccaneers will play each other twice over the final three weeks. Tampa Bay is currently a slight favorite at Carolina this week. Between those matchups, the Buccaneers travel to Miami while Carolina hosts Seattle in Week 17.
Both teams sit one game ahead of Kansas City at 7-7. It cannot be ruled out that the non-division winner could still lose out. If that happens, the Chiefs could move behind them in the draft order. But if each team wins even one or two games, the second-place finisher will most likely remain behind K.C. in draft positioning.
Chiefs' finish is truly up in the air
The Chiefs could treat the final three games like preseason contests. Winning or losing does not truly matter at this point. Those most affected by losses are Andy Reid and players who may not be back next year. Reid will still want to climb the all-time coaching wins list, and if this is the end for Travis Kelce, he will not want to go out with a demoralizing losing stretch.
Kansas City will be favored this week in Tennessee and could also be favored in the finale at Las Vegas. But with so many new faces likely to see the field, the Chiefs’ record over the final three weeks is anyone’s guess. Draft positioning will not be the sole focus inside the building, but in the end, a specific finish could make a meaningful difference once the offseason arrives.