KC Chiefs can no longer depend on their defense to carry them across finish line

Over the past season and a half, the Kansas City Chiefs' identity has evolved from being an explosive team on offense with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback to a more balanced and conservative unit that leans on its elite defense to win football games. That strategy has worked well enough for the Chiefs as they won the Super Bowl last season and have managed to start off the 2024 season with a 11-1 record despite never really playing their best football offensively.

However, something has shifted over the last month or two for Kansas City. Its once formidable defense has declined significantly to the point that it has nearly cost them football games against some rather awful teams.

Coming into the season, the Chiefs were hoping to pair their elite defense with an explosive offense once again with the offseason additions they made. While the plan likely wasn't to be as anemic on offense in 2024 as the Chiefs were in 2023, injuries and poor tackle play have still hindered them from scoring a lot of points this year and forced them once again to lean on their defense. Typically, Kansas City's defense would pick up the slack for the offense, but that hasn't been the case in recent weeks.

Since losing cornerback Jaylen Watson to injury following the win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7, Kansas City's defense has gone from top 10 in EPA per play allowed to 28th in the NFL. While the Chiefs are still statistically a top-10 scoring defense, they've allowed an average of 378 yards per game to opposing offenses over their last 3 games including a 300-yard passing game to Las Vegas Raiders backup quarterback Aidan O'Connell on Black Friday.

Furthermore, the Chiefs' defense has been particularly bad in the last two minutes of games when the other team has had a chance to win or tie. Against the Buccaneers, Kansas City's defense allowed a last-minute drive by Tampa Bay without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin which forced overtime in a game where many considered it lucky because they won the coin toss.

Then there was the last defensive drive against the Carolina Panthers, who are generally considered the worst team in football, where Bryce Young not only marched his offense down the field with ease but converted on the two-point attempt to tie it before Kansas City ultimately had to rely on the heroics of Patrick Mahomes to set up a game-winning field goal.

Finally, there were the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders games. Both games came down to the very last play where both the Raiders and Broncos probably should have won, but crucial mistakes by both teams led to miraculous Chiefs victories. In both instances, the Chiefs defense was getting driven on by the opposing offense with ease.

These aren't good teams that the Chiefs are going up against either. Kansas City is barely skating by some of the worst teams in football. Now, it's worth pointing out that the Chiefs typically do tend to sleepwalk through the regular season sometimes, and they have earned some benefit of the doubt. However, these poor performances are not on purpose. Nate Taylor of the Athletic reported that, after the Carolina Panthers game, multiple players appeared gloomy and sat at their lockers for longer than normal, disgusted at their own performance.

Nobody is necessarily complaining about an 11-1 record, but it surely does feel like a very questionable 11-1 with few impressive victories or the ability to put away bad teams being displayed. Even the Chiefs players would tell you that they aren't playing well, and not by design or because they're just trying to win and get out. This is a team currently disgusted with its own performance and that should tell you something.

Another area in which Kansas City's defense has been exposed recently is on third downs. Kansas City has significantly regressed as a unit on such occasions. While the unit remains solid defending the run and has forced a lot of third downs, they can't seem to get off the field as often as they used to.

Since Jaylen Watson's injury, it feels as if there is always at least one player on the opposing team that is running wide open on third down. More concerning, against the Raiders in particular, Las Vegas was only 3 of 12 on third down conversions, but still managed 434 yards of total offense. There have been just too many busted coverages in general, and most of them have come at the hands of that No. 2 cornerback spot for the Chiefs which consists of Nazeeh Johnson, Joshua Williams, and Chris Roland-Wallace—none of whom seem to be able to grasp the spot.

On that premise, it's not entirely the secondary's fault. The pass rush has done them no favors as the Chiefs' edge rushers have provided little to no juice in that department. Chris Jones seems to take a lot of flack any time Kansas City can't get to the quarterback, but he's still among the most double-teamed defensive linemen in all of football yet has managed one of the highest pass-rush win rates in all of football. He's still opening things up for others who simply aren't taking advantage of the situation.

Players like George Karlaftis, Mike Danna, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah are among the worst in the league at the position when it comes to pass-rush win rate. The hope is that a healthy Charles Omenihu and newly added edge rusher Joshua Uche can provide the spark needed to elevate the pass rush, but it isn't a great sign that the group made up of most of the same guys from last year that was near the top of the league in sacks isn't getting it done this time around.

Individual players that were once playing at a high level have also taken a step back which is contributing to the defensive nosedive. Cornerback Chamarri Conner looked poised for a breakout year to begin the season, but has since looked a step slow and unable to tackle anyone. Drue Tranquill, who was instrumental to the linebacking corps last year, has not been the same player in 2024 and also looks to have slowed down particularly when in coverage.

Ultimately, there are a lot of reasons for the Kansas City Chiefs' decline on defense, but the decline cannot be debated. One could even go as far as to say that the defense is bad, and they have been over the last four or five-game stretch. The numbers overwhelmingly back that up. So, what does this mean moving forward?

The offense is now forced to bear an even greater load. Kansas City's offense has lost its ability to rely on the defense in clutch situations and the margin for error has diminished substantially. As the season progresses, the Chiefs will have to figure out new ways to score points in the red zone and sustain longer drives so that there is less pressure on the defense. Kansas City's offense was already putting an unfair amount of responsibility on its defense over the last season and a half, but there is no more safety net in the defense. There's still plenty of talent on offense and reinforcements on the horizon, but if the Chiefs don't get serious on offense soon, they could slip up and potentially lose the No. 1 seed in the AFC.