I was recently reflecting upon a conversation I had with my two favorite radio partners, Mason Voth and Sasha Bouska, nearly two years ago. I predicted that the AFC would win 8 of the next 10 Super Bowls for two reasons:
1. Most of the elite quarterbacks already resided in the conference like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.
2. The teams at the bottom of the league at the time (Texans, Jaguars, and Colts) all recently drafted or were about to draft a quarterback, bringing the best available college talent to the conference.
Mason is a Cowboys fan and hates nearly every take or prediction coming out of my mouth, so he despised the genesis of this idea. Sasha, a fellow Chiefs supporter with a more analytical approach than my own, disagreed on the basis of math not working that way.
In the last two years, the team in Kansas City has proven me correct so far, but it's a long-term prophecy. A recent conversation with Matt Conner rejuvenated this idea, particularly after this Xeet.
The AFC already has an overwhelming grip on QB quality and now 3 teams in the AFC currently hold the first three picks in the NFL Draft order.
— Matt Conner (@MattConnerAA) December 31, 2024
The more things change, the more they stay exactly the same. The Patriots, Titans, and Browns will evaluate Shedeur Sanders of Colorado and Cam Ward of Miami ahead of April's college draft, adding more quarterbacks to the full corral of potentially elite players at the position within the AFC. New England already employs Drake Maye, who has plenty of potential and is actually younger than Ward, so they could win a ransom's worth of picks for teams attempting to one-up each other for their choice of quarterback.
What looks like an immense benefit for the American Football Conference has grown into a genuine problem for its opposing force. Of the elite teams in the NFC, which quarterback inspires true fear in the other team's defensive coordinator if they're worth their salt?
I love what Jared Goff has turned into over the last few seasons, but once he goes outside, questions are raised about how much the indoor circumstances of Ford Field may protect him. The Lions may lose that if the Vikings beat them on Sunday night. Their defense showed that, even against Brock Purdy, they can open the door for shootouts to vary outcomes. The greatest Detroit season anyone has ever seen may crumble before our eyes in a matter of weeks and Jared Goff may have too many fingers pointed at him.
Philadelphia has true Super Bowl-caliber players on their team, but many believe that Jalen Hurts' arm will be the reason why the Eagles won't fly as high as they are supposed to (pun fully intentional). Saquon Barkley's addition to the team hasn't only supercharged their rushing attack in the absence of Jason Kelce but also hidden a rocky relationship between the quarterback and head coach Nick Sirianni. The Eagles will always be prone to cultural collapses but have proven that they can at least make the game if Hurts can hold it together.
Sam Darnold showing up on the scene is just as shocking as Brock Purdy's big debut, but both are buoyed by the Shanahan system Kevin O'Connell adapted from Sean McVay. Justin Jefferson leading the weapons corps of Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and Jalen Nailor helps the former bust as well.
On a macro level, neither Dak Prescott nor Matthew Stafford have the gumption to speak up in debates against the best of the AFC. Nearly any combination of quarterbacks in the Super Bowl favors the team from the red conference, yet the conversation goes a bit deeper still.
The NFC has recently drafted Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels along with Bryce Young as the top pick, but has only achieved a 33% actual success rate (Daniels) thus far. Brock Purdy's puddle jump must be mentioned as well, but the quality of quarterback in the NFC is leaving something to be desired.
The AFC has welcomed C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix to add to their crew of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, and, for kicks and giggles, Aaron Rodgers. The overall quality of the quarterbacks already in and freshly introduced to the AFC clearly outweighs the same measurement in the NFC.
It seems strange, but if the Chiefs pull off this third straight title, three of the eight years I predicted that an AFC quarterback would bring home the Lombardi would already be completed. Even if the Chiefs don't make history, then Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson would probably pull off some mighty heroics. We already know they're capable of competing against the other conference's best. If Joe Burrow sneaks into the extra season, a Bengals' revolutionary run wouldn't be out of the question.
I'd like to challenge the notion that Mahomes is solely capable party of creating Super Bowl iconography. Allen, Jackson, and even Herbert could probably pull off some of the things Mahomes has in big games like Jet Chip Wasp in LIV, the wobbly ankle trot in Arizona, and the triple-zeroes touchdown to beat the 49ers. They have the talent we frankly haven't seen from any of the NFC quarterbacks, who could melt away like Jimmy G did so many years ago.