The Kansas City Chiefs are officially the top seed in the AFC. They locked it up (and the coveted bye that comes with it) with a convincing 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers,which was full of standout performances for the Chiefs.
The bye alone is worth celebrating, but there is also a huge advantage for the Chiefs to be able to go into the final week of the season with the freedom to decide who needs the extra game reps and who needs to be rested with K.C.'s first playoff game over three calendar weeks away from their Christmas Day matchup with the Steelers.
In case you're wondering if the Chiefs will feel that 3+ weeks could be too long of time off and could lead to rust, history says they aren't worried about it. In 2020, they were in almost the same situation. They were the defending Super Bowl champions and wrapped up the top seed on December 27th with a win over the Atlanta Falcons. From there, they rested all their big names in the final week of the season, losing to the Los Angeles Chargers 38-21, and their first playoff game was January 17th against the Cleveland Browns.
The Chiefs won that game 22-17. While the score was close, the Chiefs jumped out to a 19-3 lead in the first half and then got a little too conservative in the second half. The long layoff was not a problem for KC's offense in that game with Patrick Mahomes going 21 of 30 for 255 yards and 1 touchdown (no interceptions). Tyreek Hill had 8 receptions for 110 yards and Travis Kelce had 8 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown.
Andy Reid's offense (the side of the ball people usually worry about not "clicking" after a break) didn't have any issues, so I don't see the Chiefs having any reservations about resting their best players and making sure they are healthy and have fresh legs going into the playoffs. Plus, the Chiefs during this dynasty have a proven reputation of saving their best effort for the postseason.
Now the question becomes who should play and get the extra reps and who should shut it down and save it for the playoffs?
Chiefs that need the game reps the most before the playoffs
1. D.J. Humphries and Wanya Morris
At the top of the list of players who need the game reps before the playoffs are tackles D.J. Humphries and to a lesser extent Wanya Morris. Humphries is contingent on him being fully healthy, but if the Chiefs want to be able to move All-Pro guard Joe Thuney back to the interior for the playoffs, they need to see that Humphries proves he is ready to take over the left tackle job.
Thuney isn't as good of a tackle as he is a guard, but he's done a really admirable job of filling in when the Chiefs left tackle spot had become a huge issue. However, if Humphries can show he can play anywhere close to Thuney's level at left tackle it would allow Thuney to kick back inside where he is a huge upgrade over Mike Caliendo. That would be the best-case scenario, but at least K.C. knows they can play Thuney there if they have to.
While Wanya Morris isn't as key to the Chiefs' playoff lineup as Humphries is, he has flashed much better play in his limited reps at right tackle than he did on the left side. Morris was more successful in college at right tackle, too, so this makes sense. With Jawaan Taylor continuing some up-and-down play (especially when it comes to penalties), it would be nice to see Morris get some extended action at right tackle in the final week, just in case K.C. needs to call on him in the playoffs.
2. Chiefs defensive backs not named Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid
The Chiefs have two proven vets in their secondary and everyone else has been a work in progress this season. Spagnuolo's defense is notoriously complicated and young players especially, typically perform better the more they get experience in the system. Spagnuolo hasn't seemed to find a guy he likes as K.C.'s second cornerback since Jaylen Watson went down with an injury earlier this season. They've played Nazeeh Johnson, Joshua Williams, Christian Roland-Wallace, and Keith Taylor at corner recently. They also brought back veteran Steven Nelson.
The Chiefs (and Spagnuolo) have to figure out who they want playing the key snaps at corner in the playoffs and they've got one game left to do it. The Broncos game is a great opportunity for those corners to prove they can be trusted in the postseason. At safety, they seem to like their young guys in Bryan Cook, Jaden Hicks, and Chamarri Conner, but they've had some mental mistakes throughout the season. The final regular season game is a great chance to get more reps for their young safeties with Justin Reid likely on the rest list.
3. The Special Teams
If there is one unit on the Chiefs that has played poorly recently, it's the special teams units. Harrison Butker has missed kicks he usually makes since coming back from his injury. They've committed stupid penalties. In general, things have looked a little sloppy. Teams might survive special teams miscues in the regular season, but in the playoffs, the margin for error is incredibly small and KC has to get their special teams issues cleaned up. The Chiefs should put maximum effort into getting their special teams right in their final week to make sure those issues don't carry over into the playoffs. Dave Toub has long been viewed as a top ST coach, and he needs to live up to that reputation this week.
Chiefs that should definitely rest for the playoffs
1. Patrick Mahomes
This is simple. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the universe. He is getting over a high ankle sprain. The Chiefs can't afford for anything to happen to him before the playoffs. He sits. Period.
2. Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins
This one is pretty clear cut too. Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are two of the best pass catchers of the last 20 years. They're also both old by NFL standards. Kelce is 35 and Hopkins is 32. They are two of the more reliable pass-catching targets that Mahomes has ever had. You want those two to have as fresh of legs as possible. Kelce showed last year that he'll find another gear in the playoffs. Hopkins has been stuck on losing teams for years and finally has a chance to win a Super Bowl. Those guys need to rest and save it for the playoffs.
Frankly, the Chiefs should also strongly consider sitting Xavier Worthy and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown too. The Chiefs finally have a full arsenal of pass catching weapons for Mahomes and they don't want to risk losing that for the playoffs. I realize that won't leave a lot of pass catchers for the Broncos game, but that isn't the priority at this point.
3. Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Charles Omenihu
The Chiefs' pass rush has taken off down the home stretch of the season. They had five sacks on Christmas even without Chris Jones. That improvement has coincided perfectly with the return of Charles Omenihu from injury. No player has seen his play improve more since Omenihu returned than George Karlaftis who has been playing like a top-tier defensive end the past few weeks. This trio is the heart and soul of KC's pass rush and they need them all fully healthy for the playoffs.
Chris Jones' calf injury kept him out on Christmas, but that seemed to be a mostly cautionary move. Still, you don't risk him re-aggravating it in a meaningless game against the Broncos. The Chiefs defense has been on a roll lately and a huge part of that has to do with the improved pass rush. The Chiefs should make sure that their top three parts of that pass rush are resting up for the playoffs so that success can continue.
So there you have it Chiefs fans. Those are my players that most need the reps and most need the rest heading into the final game of the season now that the Chiefs have locked up the top seed in the AFC. Do you agree with these lists? Is there anyone that I included that you don't agree with? Did I overlook anyone? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.