It's official: The Kansas City Chiefs will be the number-one seed in the AFC playoffs for the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes era. The other three times the Chiefs held the top seed in the playoffs, they went to the Super Bowl in two of those years (2020 and 2022) and won the Super Bowl once (2022).
In other words, this is an excellent start for the Chiefs' quest toward three-peating. No one has won three straight Super Bowls and the Chiefs are on the right track to being the first team to accomplish that feat, not to mention that they're peaking at the perfect time.
With the Chiefs likely resting their starters in Week 18 and then having a first-round bye for the Wild Card round of the playoffs, they'll be well-rested for their Divisional-round match-up. Chiefs fans will have to wait patiently to find out who that opponent will be.
As of this writing, while the Chiefs would be enjoying their extra week of rest, the Bills would host the Broncos, the Ravens would host the Chargers, and the Texans would host the Steelers in the Wild Card round. The Broncos are the only team not to have clinched a playoff spot yet but considering they'll be going up against Kansas City's backups in Week 18, it looks like they'll be getting in.
The Chiefs have played every team that's set to make the playoffs and have only lost to one of them, which was the Bills, who K.C. could only meet up with in the AFC Championship Game. Let's rank the rest of the Chiefs' potential Divisional-round opponents from "easiest" to hardest.
5. Houston Texans
The Texans are a mess, plain and simple. Their 31-2 blowout loss to the Ravens showed that the Texans are rapidly declining at the worst possible time and that they won't be able to hang with playoff teams. That makes them a dream opponent in the postseason and right now, it's lining up for the Steelers to play them in the Wild Card round.
That would not be a fun match-up to watch but the winner of that game would come to Arrowhead Stadium for a Divisional round match-up against the Chiefs. Kansas City LOVES that idea coming to fruition.
Back to the Texans, though. C.J. Stroud has taken a massive step back after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and the offensive line can't protect him. Their defense is okay but, as we saw when the Chiefs faced them before Christmas, they aren't good enough to slow down playoff-caliber offenses.
Facing the Texans in the Divisional round would be the best possible match-up for the Chiefs but with how poorly Houston is playing, don't count on it actually happening.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
In a similar boat, the Steelers have been spiraling in the past few weeks, losing three games in a row. The last loss came on Christmas Day to our fearless Chiefs, who blew them out 29-10 despite not being a team that blows their opponents out. The Steelers didn't put up much of a fight against K.C. and they'd be a favorable match-up in the Divisional round.
The Steelers still have a shot of winning the AFC North but with their poor recent performances and the Ravens getting hot at the right time, it's looking like Pittsburgh will be a Wild Card team. The Steelers better win in Week 18 because if they don't and the Chargers beat the Raiders in Week 18, it'll be Los Angeles that gets to play the Texans and the Steelers would head to Baltimore to play their division rival.
While the latter of those games would be fun to watch, Chiefs fans would much rather see the Texans/Steelers match-up because the winner of that game is likely coming to Arrowhead (unless the Chargers were to beat the Ravens in the Wild Card round).
3. Denver Broncos
For the Chiefs to face the Broncos in the Divisional round, Denver would have to go into Buffalo and knock the Bills off in the wild-card round. That wouldn't be the worst thing for K.C. because it'd mean that the good guys wouldn't have to play the Bills again.
That being said, whenever teams from the same division meet up, you never know how things are going to go. The Broncos played K.C. close when the two met up in November with it taking a blocked field goal in the final seconds for the Chiefs to win the game.
Denver isn't a joke anymore, which is a bummer but it doesn't feel like the Broncos will be able to get past Buffalo so the chances of this match-up happening aren't likely.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
For the Chiefs and Chargers to meet for the third time this season, L.A. would have to win its wild-card match-up, which isn't out of the realm of possibilities. If the Chargers win in Week 18 and the Steelers lose, the Chargers would become the 5-seed and would then get to play the lowly Texans in the wild-card round.
That isn't too crazy of a scenario and it's one that Chiefs fans prefer not happen. The Chargers played K.C. close both times this season and while the Chiefs swept the Jim Harbaugh-led Bolts in 2024, facing a team for a third time isn't something to take lightly.
These aren't the same Chargers that Chiefs fans have grown accustomed to watching. They're well-coached, run the ball, and play stout defense. They're the exact kind of team that could deal the Chiefs fits in the playoffs and it'd be better for everyone if they can avoid having to play them. Let's hope the Chargers end up as the 6-seed and then have to go on the road to Baltimore. That way, either the Chargers or the Ravens get knocked out.
1. Baltimore Ravens
A team hotter than K.C. right now is the Ravens, who look poised to win the AFC North for the second straight season. It looked as though Baltimore would be playing as a Wild Card team a few weeks ago but the Ravens are peaking at the right time and should be able to secure the three-seed if they can handle the Browns in Week 18.
That's the ideal path for the Chiefs because the Ravens would then have to play the Chargers in the wild-card round and, if they won that, the Bills in the Divisional round, meaning two of those three teams aren't on the table for K.C. If the Ravens end up as a Wild Card team, they'd get to play the Texans and well, we saw how that ended up on Christmas.
More than likely, if the Chiefs see the Ravens in the postseason, it'd be in the AFC Championship Game, a rematch of last year's AFC title game, only this one taking place in Kansas City. We liked how the last one went but Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a Ravens defense that's figuring it out at the right time is a scary thought.