Why the Kadarius Toney trade was worth making for the Chiefs (and not why you think)

October 27th, 2022, I was standing in line at the grocery store waiting for my Chinese food (please don't knock it 'til you try it). I got a push notification that the Chiefs were trading for Kadarius Toney and all it cost them was third- and sixth-round picks. My mind instantly recalled Toney's insane highlight reel at Florida and the countless mock drafts where he fell low enough for the Chiefs to draft "the next Tyreek Hill," as some described him during the draft.

The Chiefs obviously fleeced the putrid Giants, right? They were handing a talented wide receiver to the Chiefs with over three years left on his rookie deal. The Giants were starting Daniel Jones, which meant Toney would get an offense with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at the helm. The Toney trade in my mind was even better than my grocery store crab rangoon (again, no judgment).

Over 670 days later, Chiefs fans were glad to see the team release Kadarius Toney. A Super Bowl hero and a receiver who would have cost less than $2 million to keep on the roster. How did it all go so wrong? Did the Chiefs really waste draft picks for 1.5 seasons of Toney?

Let's look back at the Kadarius Toney trade and see.

2022

The honeymoon with Kadarius Toney started off great. Just a few days after arriving in Kansas City, he was catching touchdowns and contested catches in a game agaisnt the Jacksonville Jaguars. He looked like the missing X-factor on an offense that was already one of the best in the league.

The Chiefs were relying on Juju Smith-Schuster in '22 to be their top target at the receiver position. Toney brought the extra juice to make Marquez Valdez-Scanting a modest third or fourth option. Giants fans warned of Toney's injury history and attitude, all of which was easily explained away by myself over a lukewarm plate of lo mein. Toney was going from one of the worst offenses in the NFL to the best. I'd fake injuries too if I had Daniel Jones throwing me passes.

However, it didn't take long for Toney's injuries to start popping up. This was concerning but the Chiefs have managed players like this before (e.g. Sammy Watkins). With the roster the Chiefs had, just being healthy for the playoffs is all that mattered. He started the playoffs healthy and made some plays in the aforementioned Jags game as Patrick Mahomes gutted through a high ankle sprain. In the AFC Championship, however, Toney dropped a would-be touchdown and then injured himself juking a defender. Less than ideal, but the Chiefs offense survived.

Many Chiefs fans declare the Toney trade a victory simply because of his performance in the Super Bowl. Which, no doubt, is the highlight of his time in K.C. His record-setting punt return will always be a crucial play in that victory. The Chiefs' offense was dominant in the second half against the Eagles. Maybe they even score anyway? Maybe they don't? Either way, Corn Dog will always be famous for its unique play design and the fact that Toney caught the ball as well. While the stat line was certainly modest for Toney, he came out of that game a hero and a key piece of the Chiefs' future.

2023

As the last bit of confetti falls, the NFL offseason begins. The Chiefs decided to let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency and the Chiefs publicly pointed to Toney as their top wide receiver. Meanwhile, the Giants trade pick 100 overall (that third-round choice from the Chiefs) to acquire Darren Waller, a talented but expensive and aging tight end from the Las Vegas Raiders. During the 2023 draft, the Chiefs spent a 2nd round pick on Rashee Rice to further their inexperienced wide receiver corps, while the Giants spent the sixth-round choice (No. 209) on cornerback Tre Hawkins III.

On the first day of camp, Toney injured himself fielding punts before practice officially began. It's obvious now that Toney cannot stay healthy, but the talent is still promising. Then the season opener against the Lions set the tone for the entire season for Toney who single-handedly lost the game for the Chiefs as they began their title defense.

It wasn't just the drops or the injuries that killed Toney's season; it was the mindless penalties that cost the Chiefs a crucial game against the Bills and the obsessive arguing with fans on social media. The Chiefs eventually shut Toney down for the season with a mystery injury, and he declares on social media that he's not injured. The season is a total loss for Toney as he completes his transformation from hero to villain.

2024

The Chiefs make drastic moves to improve the receiver corps by singing Hollywood Brown, Mecole Hardman, and Smith-Schuster. They trade up for Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft and start mixing Toney in at running back as a last effort to save his roster spot. However, the injuries and the penalties continue into the preseason and Toney is cut after not having his fifth-year option picked up. Chiefs fans breathe a sigh of relief that the Toney experiment is over.

Was it a waste?

Did the Chiefs get it wrong trading for Kadarius Toney? No. They did the right thing and it's not for the reasons you might think. His Super Bowl heroics, while valuable, were mostly about opportunity and scheme other than the punt return. The Toney trade was the right move because the process was sound. The NFL is a results-driven league—if you don't win you're fired or cut. The good news for anybody in red and gold is that the Chiefs have the best results in the league. Toney was a gamble worth making, even if the results weren't good.

Pick 100 was a compensatory pick from Ryan Poles being hired as the general manager of the Chicago Bears. Sure, it would've been nice, but the Raiders drafted Tre Tucker with that pick—a second-string slot receiver and special teamer who is buried in an offense behind several other pass catchers. Waller earned $12.1 million last year to catch 52 passes for 552 yards. Hawkins is a backup corner for easily one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. None of the picks the Chiefs moved for Toney have amounted to anything.

If you want to watch the punt return against the Eagles on an endless loop to tell yourself the trade was worth it, that's valid. If you want to say it wasn't worth it because of how bad he was last year, that's valid too. Overall though, the Chiefs "bought the dip" on an insanely talented first-round pick hoping their culture could fix him. Sometimes that works with troubled draft picks like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill; other times you get results like Toney. It's like reheating three-day-old grocery store orange chicken, you never know how it's going to work out. But with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs have the secret (soy) sauce to make anything work.