The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 to start the season, but they are not without their flaws. The offense hasn't clicked yet and they've been a play or two away from losing each of their first three games. It's been very similar to what we saw last year in the regular season. While the Chiefs do need to work to continue to improve the product on the field, there is one area where the team is already excelling, stopping the run. That could be a big problem for their next opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers are in their first season with new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and it's no secret that Harbaugh likes to build his offense around the run game. Despite his best offensive piece being quarterback Justin Herbert, Harbaugh has stuck to his philosophy through their first three games. The Chargers currently rank 7th in the NFL in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Meanwhile, they rank 31st out of 32 teams in passing yards and 24th in yards per pass attempt.
So it is clear that this team's offense is built around running the football. That was already the case going into the season, but now the Chargers find themselves with injuries to their starting quarterback and both of their starting offensive tackles. Those injuries could make their 31st-ranked passing attack even more vulnerable and put an even bigger weight on the shoulders of their running game this week when they take on the Chiefs.
The problem for the Chargers is that this plays right into the strength of KC's defense so far this season. If you just look surface level at KC's 13th-ranked rushing yards allowed and 12th ranked yards per carry allowed, KC's run defense might be just average, but those numbers are misleading. That's because over 35% of the rushing yards KC has allowed were to Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
The Chiefs have had their issues in their first three games, but their run defense hasn't been one of them.
It's not that those rushing yards allowed to Jackson don't count, but it is a very specialized type of rushing that most teams can't recreate with their quarterback. If you take away those quarterback rushes and a few wide receiver rushes, KC's defense has allowed just 53 carries for 177 yards rushing to opposing running backs. That's just 3.3 yards per carry and an average of just 59 rushing yards per game. Even with a fully healthy Herbert, the Chargers run game is almost exclusively built around their running backs and KC has done a great job of limiting production on opposing backs.
You don't need to look any further than last weekend to see how the Chargers running back success, specifically that of J.K. Dobbins (who the Chiefs missed out on signing), directly reflects the overall success of their offense. In the Chargers' first two wins, Dobbins averaged a combined 9.9 yards per carry, rushed for 266 total rushing yards, had a touchdown in each game, and a run of over 40 yards. However, last week against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense (and with a banged-up Herbert) he rushed for just 44 yards and averaged just 2.9 yards per carry with no touchdowns and a long run of 13 yards. Consequently, their offense struggled and they lost their first game of the season.
In their first three games, the Chiefs have been especially great at stopping the opposing team's primary running back. In Week 1, the Chiefs held Derrick Henry to 3.5 yards per carry. He's averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his other two games. In Week 2 they held Zack Moss to 2.8 yards per carry. He's averaged 4.9 in his other two games. Last weekend, the Chiefs held Bijan Robinson to just 1.9 yards per carry. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry in his first two games, including 3.8 yards per carry against that same Pittsburgh defense that shut down J.K. Dobbins last week.
So if the Chiefs, who contained Bijan Robinson even more than the Steelers did, can contain Dobbins as well as Pittsburgh did last week, it may be very difficult for the Chargers to get their offense going. That's especially true if Herbert and both of their starting offensive tackles are either out or playing at less than 100% due to injuries. This is a team that is only averaging 19.3 points per game despite having games against the Carolina Panthers (32nd in points allowed) and Las Vegas Raiders (27th in points allowed).
The Chiefs are averaging 25 points per game in their first three games despite playing better teams and their offense not fully firing on all cylinders yet. If they can just match that average again this week it should be enough to get the job done against this banged-up Chargers offense, especially if they can stop the run. The good news for Chiefs fans is that based on what we've seen from both of these teams to start the year, it feels like this matchup of the Chargers run game vs the Chiefs run defense favors KC.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Do you agree that the numbers point to the Chiefs being able to contain the Chargers run game this week? Do you agree that with the Herbert injury (and maybe even without it) that stopping the run is the key to stopping the Chargers this week? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.