Raiders vs. Chiefs best NFL prop bets for Christmas Day in Week 16

Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs continue on its postseason push on Christmas Day against the Las Vegas Raiders at home.

After a slow start a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, the Chiefs settled in and grabbed a convincing victory against the Raiders. Can the Chiefs follow a similar script en route to another win against an AFC West foe?

You can find our NFL betting expert Iain MacMillian's best bet for this one here in his weekly column, 'Road to 272!,' but this is going to hit on our three favorite player props for the first of three on Monday's Christmas Day NFL slate!

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Best NFL prop bets for Raiders vs. Chiefs in Week 16

  • Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 pass completions
  • Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 Receptions
  • Aidan O'Connell UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 pass completions

The Raiders defense is top 10 in terms of EPA/Dropback as the secondary shuts off the deep ball, but I believe Mahomes can work underneath this one and still put together a successful game script as a passer.

The reigning league MVP has still had his finger on the pulse of the Chiefs offense, the team is passing at a top five percentage this season, and I believe that we see sharp execution behind Mahomes.

The Raiders defense will stymie deep shots for Mahomes, leaving him to check down and rack up the completions.

Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 Receptions

In a similar vein as the Mahomes completion prop, I'm going to target the receptions prop for Kelce.

In 19 games against the Raiders in his career, Kelce is averaging just about five-and-a-half receptions on nearly eight targets, a healthy mark. When the two teams met in Week 12, Kelce had a big outing as well, catchign six of seven passes for 91 yards.

As mentioned above, the Raiders do a great job of limiting chunk passes, which means Mahomes is likely going to focus on finding his top target. This season, the Raiders are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends, setting up for a big effort from Kelce.

Aidan O'Connell UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards

O'Connell has put up some big numbers as starter for the Raiders, but I think he's in for a rough go on Christmas Day.

The Chiefs defense is third in EPA/Dropback this season, shutting off the water for the opposing passing game. He had a strong showing indoors at Allegiant Stadium against the Chiefs, passing for 248 yards on 33 pass attempts, but on the road I believe that O'Connell may be set to struggle.

In his lone road start over the last five, O'Connell passed for only 153 yards against the Dolphins defense in sunny Miami, Florida. With the potential for inclimate weather, I'll take O'Connell's under on Monday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!