NFL picks, Week 1: Chiefs and Ravens kick off the 2024 season in primetime

We're back. We're so back.

After an incredible opening weekend of college football and Labor Day behind us, it's time for one of the biggest weekends of the year: NFL Kickoff Weekend. It's not exactly productive to spend every waking moment anticipating something that is inevitably going to come, ignoring other aspects of life just to visualize how glorious it's going to be to welcome back that ass indention in your couch every Sunday when the boys kickoff again. And how lucky are we as Chiefs fans to be opening the league schedule at home as (once again) defending Super Bowl Champions? Somebody pinch me.

There's not a lot that I can say that you aren't already thinking. This has been a long time coming: 207 days since the Chiefs reigned victorious in Super Bowl 58 to Thursday night's opening kick. to be exact.

"et's get right to the Chiefs' opening night matchup along with the rest of a pretty stacked league-wide Week 1 slate.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

If there has ever been a bulletin board game where the actual trash talk has been minimal, but the motivational content is still maxed out for one side it would be this matchup for the Ravens. Patrick Mahomes has proven to be an inevitable football version of the Boogie Man for most AFC franchises over the course of the last few seasons, the Ravens joined that community in a big way in last year's AFC Championship Game.

The Ravens had all of the stars aligning for them. Lamar Jackson playing lights out during an MVP season. The AFC's top seed, so protection from having to go into Arrowhead and try to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs. They got a Chiefs team whose best offensive weapons played into Baltimore's defensive strengths and a Chiefs defense that showed few weaknesses in 2023, but if there was one it would be stopping the run - which Baltimore excelled at. And Baltimore got the game at home, honoring franchise legends beforehand.

We all know what happened after that pep rally. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs stomped on the hearts of the city of Baltimore and rendered their hopes of a Super Bowl run quoth the Raven "Nevermore".

So Baltimore has to have a chip on their shoulder, right? That's more of a rhetorical question at this point. The real question that will be answered on Thursday, in one way or the other, is "Does it actually matter?" We know what happens when the stakes are highest for Mahomes and the Chiefs at this point. The spectacular has almost become mundane as we've grown accustomed to the extraterrestrial talent of Mahomes and the magic he can produce even without elite talent around him. If a rising tide lifts all boats, then Mahomes' 2023 performance was tsunamic.

But the matchup has changed from 2023 to now. The Chiefs bolstered a position group, wide receiver, that was classified as a clear weakness in 2024 with the addition of Hollywood Brown and the first-round selection of Xavier Worthy. But the team will be without Brown on Thursday, who will miss out on lacing up against the team that drafted him (Baltimore) for the second time. Baltimore added some thunder to their running game when they signed Derrick Henry this off-season. Who's offense comes out looking the most well-oiled in Week 1?

That will ultimately depend on how the defensive units have gelled thus far, and how the stars on those defenses have pulled their respective teams together. Chris Jones and the Chiefs will start their first campaign without L'Jarius Sneed in the back half in quite some time, and Baltimore is fitting up against an offensive line that bullied them a little bit in the run game in last year's AFC title game. Can Roquon Smith and Patrick Queen light enough of a fire, fueled by the harsh wakeup call from a dream season a year ago, for the Ravens to come out and stifle a Chiefs offense that is still likely settling in?

The banner will be dropping, there will be a flyover, and Arrowhead will be packed to the gills and louder than the Ravens are probably prepared for on Thursday. Patrick Mahomes has new weapons on offense, and it would appear Andy Reid and Matt Nagy are in their bags with some speed on the outside and the thought the offense may incorporate the fullback again for the first time in a couple of years. All of that is exciting. All of that has me and thousands of you fired up. All of that is right around the corner.

Mahomes and Kelce come out in style connecting twice for touchdowns, the Chiefs run the ball early and often and control the line of scrimmage against a Baltimore defense that will leave with more questions than answers, and the noise at Arrowhead will be too much for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense to work through. This will be a tight game between what is probably the league's two best teams, but ultimately the leg of Harrison Butker will prove to be the difference. Chiefs 26, Ravens 24

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sao Paulo, Brazil - Friday Night)

You know the old adage "If a tree falls in the wood and no one hears it, did it make a noise?" Well, I think I found the NFL's equivalent when looking at this matchup. "If you schedule a game in a city, but have to tell the players to all stay inside and follow strict guidelines because their safety could be in danger if they don't, is it really worth the marketing opportunity?

No knock on Brazil, it's a great country with a great sporting tradition, but what a wild few stories that have come out of that whole process. Anyway, if there's one player who is under tremendous pressure to show out this season after attaining the bag in the off-season, it's Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Love starts off the season on a different continent against and Eagles team with a very sour taste in their mouth after collapsing a year ago.

I like the Packers, they are a fun team, but I have to think Philly comes out in this one - and in the first 6-8 weeks of the season - trying to prove a point. 2022 wasn't a fluke, and they are a very real Super Bowl contender. Eagles 28, Packers 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

I'm sure every Steelers fan is very excited to be preparing for the Russell Wilson era. In Atlanta, though, Kyle Pitts and Drake London are likely drooling over the fact that they're not going to be targetted by Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. Kirk Cousins's debut in Atlanta has many wondering if an otherwise talented Falcons roster may take a huge step forward with a proven veteran like Cousins at the helm.

The Steelers' defense is a tough one, but the combo of Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Pitts, and London may make for an explosive offense in 2024. Pitts only has 6 touchdowns in his first 3 NFL seasons - I'd expect him to be there by Week 10 this season. I like the Falcons to get off to a good start and in the process start making Chiefs fans think that the early season gauntlet doesn't take a pause after Cincinnati. Falcons 27, Steelers 17

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Could the Cardinals be spunky this season? If Kyler Murray is locked in and the bounty of offensive talent (both on the perimeter and on the line) that the Cards have acquired in the past couple of drafts starts to bloom it could be a beautiful thing. The thing is, it won't start happening in Week 1.

I never like to put anyone ahead of Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race before we see anyone play football in the new season, but if I had to put money on one guy in the league to have the season of his life in 2024, it would be Josh Allen. No Stefon Diggs, I'm saying no problem. Allen is poised to be all of the Bills' offense, and he is one of the few guys living who can do it.

The Bills get off to a strong start at home against a Cardinals team that seems like it has a floor of 6 wins and a ceiling of being around on Divisional weekend. Buffalo might have bigger plans than that, though. Bills 33, Cardinals 21

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

All of the talk going into this will be Caleb Williams' NFL debut, but look out for the sophomore season kickoff for Titans quarterback Will Levis. Something about the Titans just screams that they're going to be a tough, grimy team this season that wins boring games ugly. They will suck the life out of everything, not just their opponents.

Chicago's offense has some interesting pieces and could be very good. I think they are a playoff team this season and Caleb Williams is actually going to be that guy for the Bears. I like Williams to win his debut, and a lot more, for the Bears. Bears 20, Titans 17

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase could set the Bengals practice facility on fire, steal Joe Burrow's car keys on gameday, and cut the fiber wires in the building leaving the whole team without the internet and the Bengals would still beat the Patriots in Week 1.

The Chase drama is particularly juicy for Chiefs fans. Seeing a delusional fanbase melt down because their diva franchise wideout is being a diva is must-see Twitter TV. But the Pats have a 5 win ceiling this year in my opinion. Bengals 25, Patriots 13

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

I understand the Colts being excited about Anthony Richardson, but has he ever actually been good at playing quarterback? I know he's a physical freak who can do physically freaky things, but I don't know if I'm bought in there yet. You know who I am bought in on? CJ Stroud.

The Texans are a real threat in the AFC this year, that is if the aforementioned Stefon Diggs doesn't come in and nuke the clubhouse from an attitude standpoint. Demeco Ryans seems to be the answer at head coach and Stroud is definitely the quarterback the franchise needed after the Deshaun Watson fiasco. Texans start out strong with a big divisional win on the road. Texans 31, Colts 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

I don't know what the Jags or Dolphins will end up being in 2024, but I do know the Dolphins will be explosive on the offensive side of the ball. Still probably the NFL's fastest team, it will be hard for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense to keep pace with what Miami is going to be able to throw at them. Lawrence and the Jags figure to make the AFC South an interesting race this year, but they'll start from behind. Dolphins 34, Jags 28

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

You hate to minimize any Week 1 matchup because hope springs eternal and all that. But I will be checking on this game if and only if I wind up with any Saints or Panthers on my fantasy team. And, of course, to see how the sanctity of my picks blog is holding up. Bryce Young vs Derek Carr doesn't do it for me yet, but I'd like to see Young come out with a strong sophomore campaign. I don't know that he gets it going in the Super Dome, though. Saints 21, Panthers 17

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

The Vikings had some wind taken out of their sails when first-round draft pick JJ McCarthy was ruled out for his rookie season, but they still have an exciting roster and a higher ceiling than any team that is starting Sam Darnold should.

Conversely, the Giants. Well. The Daniel Jones contract is one of the worst split-second extensions I've seen in recent NFL history, even if it does seem comparatively price-appropriate with how the AAV on quarterback contracts has trended since the Giants gave it to him. Either way, I don't see them beating a Vikings team that has a shocking amount of weapons on offense. Vikings 24, Giants 14

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

The dawning of the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles starts against a heated divisional foe. I would've said the good news for the Chargers heading into this one is who the Raiders will trot out at quarterback presuming it would have been Aidan O'Connell. But the fact that Gardner Minshew beat him out in camp and is one of the grittiest guys in the league today gives me pause.

The Chargers will be great with Harbaugh at the helm. One day. I believe they'll be jockeying with the Broncos for last place in the AFC West this year, and Minshew gives the Raiders an edge that I don't love but a ceiling that doesn't scare me. The Raiders will start off the season with a win in LA. Raiders 21, Chargers 14

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

The Broncos were so dead-set on this matchup having absolutely nothing interesting to it that they were willing to set $85 million on fire this past offseason. The "So Long, Russ" bowl is without a doubt one of the least enthralling of opening weekend, but I guess Broncos fans can stoke the flames of the "Bo Nix Era", whatever that may mean, starting on Sunday. Seahawks 42, Broncos 13

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

What a juxtaposition of quarterback contract theologies. On one hand, you have the Browns, who are willing to borderline blindly guarantee a man who had multiple active investigations of devious deeds generational wealth. On the other hand, you have the Cowboys who aren't willing to commit just yet to a guy who hasn't proven he can bring them back to glory.

Who cares about the quarterbacks? The real studs on these two teams—Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons—will be the ones who make the difference in this one. Both teams come into the season with playoff expectations as the minimum. I like Garrett and the Browns defense to shut down the Cowboys in Week 1. Browns 23, Cowboys 20

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Commanders fans are excited to usher in rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and they should be. Daniels was electric in his Heisman campaign a year ago with LSU, and figures to be an upgrade from what Washington has shown at quarterback the past few years. I think the Bucs punched up a lot last year and landed a couple of clean chin shots, but I don't see that continuing. Commanders 27, Bucs 20

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday Night Football)

Matthew Stafford with another chance to come into Detroit and rip out the hearts of Lions fans. This time with much lower stakes, but about the same chance of knocking Detroit off at home as the last time.

Dan Campbell brought the Lions to the edge of their eventual tomorrow last year, and they figure to be one of the NFC's top squads again in 2024. I believe the Rams have a chance to make another playoff push in 2024, but Detroit should have their sights set on finishing their season in New Orleans. Lions 29, Rams 24

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night Football)

Aaron Rodgers in primetime to start the season, again? The 49ers have been a problem for Rodgers for basically the entire back half of his career, and Monday night doesn't seem like it'll be much different. Not with a 49ers team scorned once more by the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and the Jets carrying a "weird vibe" in their locker room according to multiple reports.

The Jets will make things interesting in the AFC East this year with Miami and Buffalo, but the 49ers have only one goal in mind: slay the Night King. That's Patrick Mahomes for those who didn't understand the Game of Thrones crossover metaphor. San Fran will be on the warpath all season, and it starts on the weekend's final game of opening weekend. 49ers 31, Jets 21