NFL playoff picks: Chiefs vs Bills is marquee matchup of Divisional Round

One-quarter of the NFL Playoffs are complete, and only one-quarter of the teams in the NFL remain. Before I get into the breakdown of this weekend's NFL Divisional Round matchups, I have to say there is absolutely nothing like the NFL Playoffs. Showdowns between the best teams that football has to offer getting incrementally better and better as the playoffs progress with an entire week's worth of hype to back it up. Even though most of the country is frozen solid, this is the absolute best time of year.

There's certainly a hierarchy to the matchups this weekend, but all provide an element of attraction and grandeur. Saturday the top dogs - the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC - arise from their week-long slumber to take on young, up-and-coming teams in the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers. Can Lamar Jackson shake off past playoff demons with CJ Stroud, who may be the next big thing, coming into town? Will San Fran continue their recent playoff dominance over Green Bay, or is Jordan Love really Him?

Sunday, of course, is highlighted by a showdown between Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills welcoming the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to western New York for what could be another instant classic matchup between these two. It's Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game in his career, not sure if you knew that or not. Maybe I'm late to the party on pointing that out, but not as late to the party as CJ Gardner-Johnson is at checking out Tampa's wide receiver depth chart. Gardner-Johnson's comments drew a comical response from Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield adding a little flare to Sunday's early matchup between the Buccaneers and Lions.

The matchups get more interesting and far tougher to pick this time of the year, mainly because everyone who is left standing deserves to be here. This is the best of the best that football has to offer, and Divisional weekend is arguably the best weekend of the year when it comes to NFL football unless you happen to be one of the 2-4 fan bases whose team survives to Conference Championship weekend and ultimately the Super Bowl. This weekend is the electricity that powers the football calendar - every team that starts camp in late July has their sights set on getting to at least this point. Only 8 get here. Those 8 are hungrier than they've been all year, and the result is the best football you'll watch all year.

For the Chiefs, the best football we've watched all year appears to be showing up at the right time. After a 26-7 dismantling of the Miami Dolphins in sub-zero temperatures last weekend in Kansas City, the team appears to be catching their stride just in time for another familiar opponent. Do the Chiefs continue moving forward, or do we see an unfortunately timed step backward this Sunday?

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

The Baltimore/Houston matchup has a ton of impact on what the winner of this game will have in front of them heading into Championship weekend, but most eyes in the country and all eyes in the Kingdom are directed toward what is without question the best matchup of Divisional Round weekend.

Of course, the marquee matchup in this one is between the quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen squaring off for the seventh time in their careers. This is a rivalry that is reaching the level of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning in years past, but there is certainly a trend developing between the two when they face off. Allen has the upper hand in regular season matchups, but Mahomes has yet to lose to the Bills in the postseason. He's also never played in Buffalo in the postseason.

Bring out your tables and bust through them with your shirtless torsos, Bills Mafia. Slam your fireball. Get loud and make it hard on the Chiefs. This is nothing new for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 7-2 away from Arrowhead this year and 19-5 over the last three seasons outside of the friendly confines of the loudest stadium in the world. These are not quiet affairs, either. Thirteen of those 24 games have been either on primetime or in the late afternoon slot on Sundays. They're big games. Opposing crowds show up for the Chiefs, and they try to derail them any way they possibly can. It's the current-day NFL equivalent of Elvis coming to town; the marquee is brightest when the Chiefs show up.

So the Mahomes vs Allen marquee matchup may be fueling the fire for the national media, but to me, the biggest thing to watch is going to be the opposing crowd against the Chiefs' offensive line—particularly Jawaan Taylor. It's been well covered that Taylor is the most penalized offensive player in the league, and you would think a lot of that would have to do with false starts and opposing crowd noise, right? He is certainly a little jumpy. But not really. Eleven of Taylor's 20 accepted penalties so far this year have come on the road, so he's an equal opportunity penalty guy. The only place he's penalty-free? Europe.

If the Chiefs' offensive line can operate in the noise that's sure to be coming down in Orchard Park, the Chiefs offense should hum against a Buffalo defense that at this point is battered. The Chiefs can feature someone the Bills have never really seen, either, in Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco did not play in the Chiefs' loss to the Bills earlier this year in Kansas City and only had 2 carries for 9 yards in their matchup last year—early in his rookie season. If the Chiefs commit to the run and control the clock, keeping Allen and the Bills offense off the field, they have an immensely better chance at advancing to their sixth consecutive AFC Championship.

If they can't and the Bills offense controls possession, the biggest x-factor on the Chiefs' defense will likely be linebacker Drue Tranquill. Tranquill was out earlier in the year when the Bills rushed for 118 yards on the Chiefs and will be a key piece in negating Josh Allen's ability to keep plays alive with his feet. With L'Jarius Sneed almost sure to lock down Stefon Diggs (it's just what he does) and All-Pro Trent McDuffie there to handle Khalil Shakir, the biggest pressure point for the Chiefs defense will be how the safeties, linebackers, and the remainder of the corners handle the dynamic presence of Buffalo tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid.

If the Chiefs establish the run and can get Travis Kelce some attention, I like their chances in this game. Notice I said attention and not necessarily completions. With how Buffalo covers Kelce traditonally—they absolutely blanket him—look for Rashee Rice to continue his emergence with more one-on-one matchups and for Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson to step up and make some big plays in this one. This is likely homerism. This might be why I fall so hard emotionally when the Chiefs lose, but I have the feeling in my bones that Kansas City is coming back to the promised land. Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

When assessing this game I find myself continuing to come back to reasons that I think Baltimore will lose. CJ Stroud had an incredible playoff debut last week against the league's top defense in Cleveland, throwing for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's undoubtedly on fire and one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league. The Texans' defense was also opportunistic last week, scoring twice and looking like they have some hot piss and vinegar going right now behind head coach DeMeco Ryans. There's also the "Playoff Lamar" aspect of this coupled with the fact that Jackson and the Ravens are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games when favored by 7 or more.

But, man, it's hard to pick against this Baltimore defense and John Harbaugh. I also think it's wishful thinking. Obviously, if both Houston and Kansas City prevail, the Arrowhead Invitational (AFC Championship game) lives on for a sixth straight season. Lamar and the Ravens have been dominant this year. They're coming off of blowout wins over the 49ers and Dolphins to end the regular season (before sitting starters against the Steelers in Week 18) and they just might be getting Mark Andrews back.

One thing that could swing in the Texans' favor? No Marlon Humphrey for Baltimore. If the Texans can get out early and play from ahead, they may be able to pull this off. I just have a hard time thinking that the Ravens aren't a unit that is going to continue marching forward. Ravens 33, Texans 30

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Do I love the Packers? Kind of. The NFL's youngest team just went into Dallas and stomped out the hearts of the Cowboys. That's not a massive feat in the playoffs, but it's still something. The Cowboys offense was electric all year long and Green Bay stymied that hard. Can they do the same to Brock Purdy? That answer is yes, but it might not be the most important question to answer. Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers' run game can still give Green Bay plenty of trouble.

You do have to ask yourself the question: are San Francisco's most impressive wins (blowouts over the Cowboys and Eagles) really that impressive anymore? In their last five real games of the year, they got drubbed by the Ravens and beat the slumping Eagles, Seahawks, and Commanders. Not taking away from their roster, though, this is going to go one of two ways: A.) either the Packers jump out and beat the 49ers by a touchdown plus, or B.) the 49ers dominate this from start to finish and win by two scores or more. I don't think there is any in-between.

With the defensive super team the 49ers have, I do think the wheels come off the carriage for Green Bay here. 49ers 28, Packers 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Last but not least, we have the Sunday afternoon matchup between the lovable Detroit Lions and the somewhat unattractive Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I needed a little fire in this one to ignite some creativity. As I mentioned above, CJ "Fix The Turf" Gardner-Johnson sparked the flame of noted trash talker and extremely fired-up competitor Baker Mayfield with comments about a receiver who hasn't played for the Bucs all year in Russell Gage. Baker's return barbs were pretty calm and very hilarious, but you better believe he's going to be coming after CJ and the Lions' secondary on Sunday.

That will be the biggest matchup to watch in this one: the Buccaneers' stellar receiving corps against the biggest weakness on the Lions' defense. The Lions' offense should be able to do some things against the Bucs' defense, but this one will be tight all the way through.

This game will ultimately come down to how much David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can produce in the ground game and receive the ball out of the backfield. I'm picking this one on vibes alone, and the ultimate vibes guy in the NFL right now is Dan Campbell. I like the Lions to roar into the NFC Championship game. Lions 27, Bucs 20