NFL picks, Week 4: Bills-Ravens, Chiefs-Chargers highlight a solid AFC slate

Unlike the Kansas City Chiefs, who are 3-0 after a close victory in Atlanta last Sunday night, summer never remains undefeated. While this may be a bummer for those who enjoy being slightly-to-extremely sweaty at all times (or boat owners), for folks like me, fall is a seasonal change welcomed with open arms.

The last few days have felt distinctly autumnal for those in the Kansas City area. It doesn't take an equinox for everyone to know the leaves are about to be momentarily gorgeous before they fall to the ground and all your neighbors have Home Depot lawn waste bags on the curb. The scent of PSLs is about to fill every office in America. Best of all: it's almost hoodie season.

Regarding seasons, fall is the undisputed king (or queen) in my book. Nothing beats a chilly weekend when you can put on some jeans and a hoodie, throw something in the crockpot or on the smoker, and just veg out on football all weekend long. I, however, have not been the undisputed king of NFL picks this season.

While 29-19 isn't a bad start, there is much more work to do to get back to last season's winning ways. But the change in my fortune—and the change in the weather—have spurred a change in my mind. It's the biggest change so far this season for each of this week's (predicted) winners.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

While the Chiefs have dominated the AFC North both mentally and physically to start the season, many forget that they actually belong in the AFC West. This could have slipped the minds of many for several reasons. Part of this is due to lack of competition; after all, Patrick Mahomes is 30-5 (.857 winning percentage) in his career against AFC West foes. But in that, we find the real issue: the AFC West, outside of Kansas City, has been mostly irrelevant in the NFL landscape for nearly a decade.

In the eight seasons that the Chiefs have consecutively won the division, only one other AFC West team has reached the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That was the Chargers in 2018. They made the playoffs one other time, in 2022, but fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round after giving up a 27-point lead. The Broncos have not made the playoffs since Barack Obama was President, and the Raiders have only made the Wild Card round once in the previous eight seasons.

So what could drum up excitement in the AFC West outside of the same old dominant Chiefs? Enter Jim Harbaugh. The former 49ers and Michigan head coach came to L.A. with one thing in mind: to change the culture of a team that was lost under the guidance of candy-brained former head coach Brandon Staley and win football games. So far, so good in the Harbaugh era. The Chargers are 2-1 and appear to be a scrappy, physical team.

The issue with this week's matchup isn't the style of play; it is going to be the health of the aforementioned Chargers. They come into the game already banged up and will likely be missing starting tackle Joe Alt and possibly Rashawn Slater along with suspended safety Derwin James. Los Angeles could also be without Justin Herbert, who is nursing an ankle he injured last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So if you potentially take out two starting tackles, a star safety who has traditionally taken care of Travis Kelce and the Chiefs' passing attack, and downgrade from Herbert to Taylor Heinicke, what do you get?

Unfortunately for the Chiefs thus far in 2024, my answer would be "the recipe for another close game". The Chargers have not leaned much on their passing attack yet in 2024, but have been a team that has gotten physical up front with the running game. The Chiefs have stymied better running backs than J.K. Dobbins in the season's first 3 weeks, but still stand to give up some time of possession and ultimately leave the offense off the field for long enough for the Chargers to manage to keep the game close.

I think this week Patrick Mahomes finally finds a way to get Kelce going, and the Chiefs' offense has a little bit of a throwback look to it with Kelce being the centerpiece of the gameplan with James out and the offense as a whole operating from the middle of the field out. I like the Chiefs to take this game and remain undefeated. Chiefs 24, Chargers 19

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Thursday Night Football)

The biggest change thus far in 2024 for the Cowboys has been that they absolutely, positively cannot stop the run. This won't matter against a Giants team that absolutely, positively stinks despite winning in Cleveland last week. Cowboys 33, Giants 10

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

The Saints offense has been a pleasant change in New Orleans thus far, with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak bringing tons of motion and misdirection to a previously stale product. I like the Saints to bounce back and announce themselves as the class of the NFC South. Saints 24, Falcons 21

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

The biggest change for the Rams so far in 2024 is that their top two receiving weapons are sidelined. That's not that big of a change for the oft-injured Cooper Kupp, but a new occurrence for Puka Nacua. It will be tough for LA to win in Chicago lacking this much offensive weaponry. Bears 23, Rams 17

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Vikings have turned into a wagon behind none other than Sam Darnold. The big change here? It's much tougher to get mononucleosis being out and about in Minneapolis' bar scene compared to New York's. Vikings 27, Packers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers finally have their next quarterback, and it's not either of the first two guys they thought they'd grab to replace Big Ben. Kenny Pickett didn't work out, and Russell Wilson is injured, so Justin Fields is the guy to bring the Steelers back to prominence. The Colts are frisky, but the Steelers' defense is for real. Steelers 21, Colts 18

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

The biggest change in New York is evident Aaron Rodgers is healthy and looking like his old self, at least for this cupcake portion of the Jets' early season schedule. Jets 29, Broncos 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Saquon Barkley has been a welcome change to an already dirty Eagles rushing attack, and will continue his run of dominance (sans one untimely drop) against the Buccaneers. Eagles 28, Bucs 21

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

The biggest change so far for Cincinnati so far this season has been their sudden amnesia when it comes to knowing how to win football games. They haven't forgotten that the refs are certainly Chiefs fans, though. Cincy gets in the W column in the Andy Dalton revenge game. Bengals 25, Panthers 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

The biggest change in the entire AFC South this season has been the fact that Trevor Lawrence appears to have had his football abilities taken away by one of the aliens from Space Jam. The Jags are lost and on a short week. Texans 29, Jaguars 17

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

The Commanders finally have their quarterback, and like most Chiefs fans on Monday night, I was certainly happy to see Jayden Daniels take it to the Bengals in the final minutes of their Week 3 win. This one is a sneaky game-of-the-week candidate. Commanders 27, Cardinals 24

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Not much has changed recently in New England, and that's the problem. The corpse of the 49ers will still pound the Patriots. 49ers 33, Patriots 20

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Hey Siri, give me a matchup of the two teams with the most embarassing losses of the season so far.

"Ok Charles."

Flip a coin, I don't care. Browns 3, Raiders 2

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday Night Football)

The Bills finally made the change to completely tailor their team around Josh Allen, and it's paying off in a big way so far. They will face their first true litmus test of the season on Sunday night, but the Ravens have lost their mental toughness temporarily and I think Josh Allen's MVP canpaign rages on. Bills 34, Ravens 31

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (Monday Night Football)

Change is abound in Miami, and it's all bad. No Tua, big problems for the Dolphins. Hopefully Will Levis can avoid turning the ball over in additional hilarious ways, even if he does the Titans should still win this game. Titans 20, Dolphins 13

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (Monday Night Football)

There will be one big change for the Seahawks in Week 4: they will have to play a good team. The Lions at home in primetime are nothing to scoff at. Lions 28, Seahawks 23