NFL picks and predictions, Week 5: Chiefs-Vikings anchors Week 5 slate

No one could have felt super confident in the Kansas City Chiefs' way-too-close 23-20 win over the New York Jets last Sunday. Many of us went into the matchup with a strong sense of confidence surrounding the quarterback matchup and were gradually proven wrong (for that night) as the game progressed. Alas, an ugly win is better than a pretty loss and the Chiefs are 3-1, leading the AFC, and heading to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on a three-game winning streak.

Not all bad, right? In an NFL season that has seen inconsistency in a lot of facets in 2023, the Chiefs—along with the Eagles, 49ers, and Bills—appear to be the constants that fans counted on heading into the year. They represent the upper echelon of both conferences thus far and are not strangers to those respective pole positions in recent years. Other contenders—specifically the 1-3 Cincinnati Bengals—find themselves reeling already in a young season.

One thing is certain about the 2023 season: it's unpredictable. We do our best here at Arrowhead Addict to maintain a certain level of expertise, but my credibility in the picks department feels like a house of cards and a badge of honor all at the same time. Will this eventually fall apart? Certainly. But for now, we're 40-24 (62.5%) straight up on the year after a "grit it out" 10-6 last week.

Speaking of gritting it out, the Chiefs' run game bailed them out of an ugly aerial performance against the Jets last week and can be a spark to a piece of their offensive arsenal in 2023 that can help them put away many more opponents. Isiah Pacheco's 158 yards of offense was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise forgettable final three quarters for the offense but was enough to turn the tide and get the Chiefs to 3-1. Improvements in the passing game and a more consistent effort from the defense complimenting that run game could show us the best version of the Chiefs, which I believe we still haven't seen.

As for Sunday, Minnesota finally got their first taste of victory in 2023 with a 21-13 victory over the Carolina Panthers last week and look to continue that trend against a Kansas City team that looked weak in places that are typically strengths against the Jets. I look for the Chiefs offense to bounce back in a big way against a Vikings defense that was giving up 27+ points per game in the season's first three weeks, and their opportunistic defense to take advantage of a team with 11 offensive giveaways this season. I like the Chiefs big in this one for some reason, Chiefs 34, Vikings 17.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
The Commanders kind of can't win in this situation. If and when they do win the game, it's because it's the Bears and they're supposed to. Nothing impressive about beating a team that has lost 14 consecutive games, giving up 25+ points in all of those losses - an NFL record. But if you lose to that team? I don't think the Commies have to worry about that. Commanders 24, Bears 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
This looked like a hell of a matchup coming into the season, but with how Buffalo is playing right now compared to how Jacksonville is coming out of the gates, it has slightly less sex appeal now. How with Tre'Davius White's injury news impact the morale of the defense? If they rally like they have for teammates who have gone down in the past it's not going to be a fun afternoon for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. Bills 31, Jags 21

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
All right, is Houston actually good? C.J. Stroud has been about as impressive as it gets for a rookie signal caller. In fact, the only thing more impressive is my continuing to keep him on my fantasy football bench with Trevor Lawrence starting. Both of these teams have been a pleasant surprise to start the year, highlighted by rookies Stroud and Bijan Robinson. This will be a fun game to watch, but I like the home team. Falcons 29, Texans 27

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
The Lions are just a much better team than the Panthers. That's pretty much all we need to remember here. Lions 34, Panthers 13

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of rookie QBs, Anthony Richardson kind of looks like a dog. But, if there's one thing we know, it's that Derrick Henry is not just a dog - he's a monster. Henry's performance last week made me think it was 2019 again, and if the Titans can dial that up consistently they'll be in the mix come January. Titans 23, Colts 20

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
What the hell happened to the New York Giants? Last year it looked like Daboll had brought some funk to the Big Apple and that Daniel Jones was figuring it out. Now? Same old Giants. Miami is going to be looking to feast at home after getting embarrassed by Buffalo. This could be over by halftime. Dolphins 38, Giants 14

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Inured Derek Carr against the Law Offices of Jones and Zappe. A real thrill ride. Alvin Kamara had 13 catches for....39 yards last week. Not long ago this would have been an absolute shootout between Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Nowadays, punters are going to be staying busy. Saints 13, Patriots 10

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
"No love lost between these two" will be the go-to headline here for all media outlets. My "the Steelers might be spunky this year" train has almost completely derailed and Kenny Pickett does not look great. Not as "not great" as their OC Matt Canada getting his Twitter burner doxed this week, but almost that bad. Ravens 24, Steelers 20

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Until proven otherwise, the Eagles are the same wagon they were last year. Same opening words as last week when the Eagles survived a scare from the Commanders, but division games always mean more. Not as close this week. Eagles 27, Rams 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
If the Bengals lose to the Cardinals, it's time to smash the panic button. Unlike many others, I don't think they're there yet, and I don't think they get there this week unless they decide to sit Joe Burrow. Bengals 24, Cardinals 10

New York Jets at Denver Broncos
The New York Jets are an offensive juggernaut that the Bengals can't handle. In all reality, the Broncos defense is an absolute travesty this season and this is anyone's game, but I'm picking the Jets from here on out. Jets 30, Broncos 27

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
This is a clash of early-season NFC titans. The Cowboys bounced back in a huge way against New England last week with another opportunistic defensive performance, and the 49ers kept dominating while featuring the league's best running back in Christian McCaffery. This will be an insanely entertaining Sunday night affair. Cowboys 33, 49ers 28

Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
I have no clue who this Packers team actually is, but I know Aidan O'Connell is not an NFL quarterback. If Jimmy G can't go, the Pack will take this one easily. They still may even if he does make it back. Packers 23, Raiders 20

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