NFL picks and predictions, Week 11: KC Chiefs return to tough Monday night test

There always comes a time in the NFL season when I (and many others) look up and think "Wow, we're already in Week X?" That's this week for me. More time and games have passed in the 2023 regular season than remain, and that means that we're closer than we have been in months to the dog days of summer where our time is filled with draft prognostication, schedule releases, and free agency. Okay, enough of the seasonal affective disorder rearing its ugly head, let's talk some football while we're still in the thick of it.

Last week could not have gone better for the Kansas City Chiefs, and they didn't even suit up. With losses by the Ravens, Jaguars, Bengals, Chargers, and Bills the Chiefs now stand-alone (and distanced) atop the AFC with a massive Super Bowl rematch on the docket for Week 11. The rest vs. rust debate is out the door with Andy Reid's track record coming off of the bye. In 24 years as a head coach, Reid is 21-3 coming off of the bye with both Philadelphia and Kansas City. His 87.5% winning percentage speaks for itself out of bye weeks and is almost as impressive as my 66% winning percentage in picks this year.

Yes, after a simultaneously satisfying (because of who lost) and disappointing 8-7 week last week, we're just short of the century mark at 99-51 for picks on this site in 2023. How will this week's slate shake out? Well, we start with a colossal AFC North matchup on Thursday Night Football between two teams that figure to test the Chiefs in January in the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, and finish with a primetime matchup between last year's Super Bowl participants when the Eagles visit the Chiefs.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

I had mixed feelings about this game early. I went back and forth between "Chiefs in a tight one" and "Eagles in a blowout." The combination of firepower and grit that Philly's offense sports is daunting, to say the least. Yet when you sit back and think about how Kansas City's defense has performed thus far in 2023 and couple it with Trent McDuffie's statements earlier this week that the K.C. defense was "disappointed" with their performance in what was a Super Bowl win, you have to think they're going to come out with something to prove. I like the Chiefs in this one coming off the bye and reintroducing themselves as what everyone else is striving to be in this league. Chiefs 31, Eagles 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

If the Chiefs vs Eagles is the Mona Lisa, this game is Starry Night. The best Thursday Night Football matchup since the Chiefs and Lions kicked the season off, and both teams come in with something to prove after last-minute losses in Week 10. Cincinnati risks falling into Buffalo territory with a loss, and Baltimore needs a win to keep pace with K.C. if they don't want to participate in the 2023 Arrowhead Invitational. The crowd in Baltimore will be absolutely bananas for this one, and without Tee Higgins again, I think the Bengals offense will remain streaky against a Ravens defense that will definitely be juiced up. Ravens 23, Bengals 21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

This was a whole lot more interesting before the news of Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder surgery dropped on Wednesday morning. It will still be a defensive slugfest, and if Kareem Hunt can turn back the clock a couple of years, Cleveland could stay in it. However, I don't know if DTR has what it takes against a Steelers defense that is keeping them somehow at the top of the division. The Browns will probably outgain the Steelers—keeping the league's oddest statistical anomaly alive—but they will not outscore them. Steelers 17, Browns 13

Chicago Bears at Detroit LIons

Lions - actually good. Bears - very bad. Lions 33, Bears 14

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers

The Chargers are developing a very clear trend: they lose to good teams (except for Tennessee), and beat bad teams (except for Tennessee). Which group would you place the Packers closer to? Dolphins, Chiefs, Lions, Cowboys, or Raiders, Vikings, Bears, Jets? I think we all know this answer. Chargers 28, Packers 20

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

The Antonio Pierce magic is real, but can they really hang with Miami? Will Aidan O'Connell start to look more like, I don't know, Aidan O'Connell? Miami rolls off their bye in this one. Dolphins 34, Raiders 24

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

The Commanders have not had a great season, but they're somehow double-digit favorites in this game. Brian Daboll should have bottled the lightning they had in New York last year because that magic seems to be long gone. Commanders 23, Giants 10

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Dak beats bad teams, and Dak and CeeDee Lamb are on fire right now. This one will be over by halftime. Cowboys 35, Panthers 13

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

My biggest miss last week was calling the Jags over the 49ers in what ended up being an absolute curb-stomping. The Jags need a familiar foe who is not very good at home to get back on track, and look what they've gotten themselves into. Jaguars 24, Titans 14

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

A week ago, I would have picked the Texans in a romp, but Kyler Murray has something about him that makes me think the Cardinals will keep things interesting. I love what C.J. Stroud is doing in Houston, especially after claiming him as "the guy" in last year's draft class in my main Chiefs group text just to have Bummer Bart (a real person) say he thought he would suck. Better believe I've called that out already. This one will be a thriller. Texans 33, Cardinals 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers look like they've regained their steam and are at full health, which is not good for a Bucs team that really needs a win. They'll have to look for that next week. 49ers 27, Buccaneers 17

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

It's officially do-or-die time for Buffalo. Ken Dorsey is gone, Josh Allen leads the NFL in turnovers, and the Bills are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Jets play the Bills tough every single time, which means this could not be a worse matchup for Buffalo when they need to get something going—badly. I still like the Bills in another sloppy, sub-26-point performance. Bills 17, Jets 13

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Seattle is better than the Rams and will stay in first place in the NFC West. Seahawks 28, Rams 14

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

I hate that this is a matchup between two hot teams, but the Broncos are riding some very, very real momentum into a home game against Minnesota. The Vikings should beat the Broncos, but that's the Broncos as we've known them for the previous season and a half. In these last two games, Denver looks different. I hate this so, so much, but I think Denver pulls back to .500 this week. Broncos 22, Vikings 17

Bye weeks: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints