NFL picks and predictions, Week 12: Can KC Chiefs get right against the Raiders?

It's easy to overreact to a game in November, especially when the stakes are as high as a Super Bowl rematch. So when the Kansas City Chiefs laid a second-half egg against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, overreactions were bountiful, to say the least. Whether you have full faith in the roster that Brett Veach has put together for the Chiefs this season or not, it's the team that will at this point either exceed many current expectations or ultimately disappoint many of us in much bigger moments.

I, for one, was certainly overreacting on Monday. Unless some close accomplices of mine choose to dox our private group chats—one of the more unforgivable things a friend could do in 202—I feel like those opinions won't reach public visibility. If they did, I would likely be excused from my duties here at Arrowhead Addict. However, as of press time, I am safe. I definitely said some things that I didn't ultimately mean, and ultimately gained some perspective and forgave the professional athletes that I was convinced had ruined my life on Monday.

So here we are, at the one time of the year when we're encouraged to look back and maintain some perspective and gratitude, so let's do that shall we? A little over halfway through the 2023 season Kansas City sits at 7-3, and while that could potentially be an 8-2, 9-1, or even 10-0 mark they are still in a favorable overall position generally speaking. Traditional AFC powers Buffalo and Cincinnati have struggled to 5-5 marks—the latter losing quarterback Joe Burrow for the season. There are young upstarts that stand to threaten the Chiefs' place as the kings of the AFC, but what have they proven in January?

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

We won't know until we get there, but for now, we have to look forward to the opportunity that presents itself for the Chiefs in Week 12. That opportunity is a nice one by traditional standards - a matchup with the little brother Las Vegas Raiders. Vegas has looked fierce in their last couple of games since they got rid of the human rash that was Josh McDaniels but fell to the Dolphins in Miami last week. But let's not forget the two impressive wins they had against—checks notes—oh... Tommy Devito and Zach Wilson. They will face a completely different animal this week in a presumably pissed-off Patrick Mahomes.

This meeting with the Raiders could not come at a better time for Kansas City. A bottom 10 pass defense, a quarterback in Aidan O'Connell who is just begging to fall off a cliff, and a team that is - (don't forget) the Raiders. I look for Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes to come alive early in this one, and the receiving combination of Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney to get more run together amid the struggles of other members of the receiving corps. But most importantly: give Isiah Pacheco the ball and let that man make the Raiders defense regret trying to tackle him. The Chiefs win big in a big get-right game. Chiefs 34, Raiders 17

Now on to the rest of the slate for this week. After a middling 8-7 performance last week, I'm sitting at 107-58 for the year. The winning percentage has taken a slight beating over the last couple of weeks, but we've still avoided a losing record in any single week so far in 2023. Need to crack the double digits wins again this week, so here goes nothing.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 

Those of you who have read my content before know that I'm a big superstition guy. That shouldn't keep me from picking the Lions - the much better team in this game - on Thanksgiving Day, but it might. Thanks to an astute astrologically inclined Reddit user, I learned today that the Detroit Lions are 0-12 on Thanksgiving Day when the moon is in a waxing gibbous phase. That's since the AFL/NFL merger. Guess where the moon's at right now? Yes, it's waxing gibbously. While the moon may be enough to control the ocean's tides, it's no match for helping this Packers team beat this Lions team. Lions 28, Packers 20

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Should be over by halftime, but divisional games have a tendency to be closer than you expect. I have no reason to believe the Cowboys will actually fall to a Washington team that is going to have many, many issues protecting Sam Howell from a ferocious Cowboys pass rush. Cowboys 28, Commanders 13

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

It feels like the 49ers are back. Seattle is a good team, and hanging in there in the divisional race as well as the NFC playoff picture, but when San Fran is cooking they're better than just about everybody else in the NFC, maybe the entire NFL. The 12th man will be gobbling Thursday night, but won't be enough to derail the Brock Purdy Express. 49ers 27, Seahawks 24

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Alright, yeah, the Jets had to bench Zach Wilson. But do we really think Tim Boyle is going to provide them much of a shot at winning either? The Dolphins' offense hasn't looked quite as high-flying in the last few weeks, and will likely struggle against the Jets as well, but i don't see New York having enough of an offensive pulse to hang. Dolphins 21, Jets 10

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

The entire city of Atlanta, even Saints and Falcons fans, are looking ahead a week to the SEC Championship Game showdown between Georgia and Alabama. A once-powerful NFC South matchup has turned into a little bit of a joke. Saints 20, Falcons 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

It's time for the dawn of the Jake Browning era in Cincinnati to commence. The real question is do the Bengals end up more or less than 8 wins this year? I hope they end the season at 8-9, just out of the playoff picture but with just enough wins to have a mid-level draft pick. Steelers 17, Bengals 13

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans

Next. Titans 13, Panthers 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Yikes. The middle part of this slate gets pretty...lackluster. Baker Mayfield vs. Gardner Minshew is actually kind of electric, but I can't say I'll spend much time dissecting it. Colts 23, Buccaneers 20

New England Patriots at New York Giants 

Good God, make it stop. This is the NFL matchup equivalent of the third hour of a nine-hour road trip. Hammer the under in this game. Patriots 10, Giants 6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Two years ago this game would have been included in the same ilk at the three above this write-up. Now? An exciting matchup between two young, stud quarterbacks and two teams that are in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Jacksonville, at times, has looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and Houston and CJ Stroud have been overachieving at a compelling level all year long. This one should be fun, but I like the guys who have been there before. Jaguars 27, Texans 24

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

The Broncos offense has been surviving on the "kick field goals until Courtland Sutton makes an incredible touchdown catch" for a few weeks now. Cleveland's defense figures to give Denver's offense quite a bit of trouble, but I can't say that I believe in Cleveland's offense being able to put up much firepower against a Denver defense that looks much improved the last 4 games. Browns 13, Broncos 12

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

In the first game Matthew Stafford returns, the Rams beat the Seahawks. The Cardinals have their guy back too, though, and this matchup is suddenly way more intriguing. Even with Kyler Murray, the Cardinals' roster is in the middle of a complete rebuild, and the Rams seem more apt to remain competitive this season. Rams 24, Cardinals 17

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills offense finally woke up last week against a Jets defense that typically gives them fits, while the Eagles are coming off of an emotionally draining win that they've had circled on their schedules since May. Similar to the Chiefs "get right" game, do the Eagles fall victim to a letdown this week against Buffalo? I think so. Bills 31, Eagles 27

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

At this point in the season, I have no faith in the Chargers. Everyone wants to call them underachieving and cite their talent - who do they have that is so incredibly talented outside of Justin Herbert? Nick Bosa's brother is hurt again, Khalil Mack is old, and Derwin James is getting slower and more and more out of position. Rashaan Slater is the second-best player on the Chargers, and the rest of their roster is overblown. That might be why they're 4-6. Ravens 29, Chargers 21

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

I've seen some noise out of Chicago this week saying that maybe the Bears don't take a quarterback in next April's draft. That's cool, and probably a good idea - the Bears need help everywhere. I do like Justin Fields more than Josh Dobbs in all reality, but the Vikings are much, much better than the Bears right now. Vikings 17, Bears 14