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Best Sleeper Monday Night Football Fantasy Picks
Patrick Mahomes MORE 26.5 Rush Yards
Mahomes rushed for 44 yards against this same defense in the Super Bowl and has 20+ rushing yards in every game but one this season. With so much on the line tonight, I expect Mahomes to utilize his legs early and often.
He's averaging over 28 rushing yards per game on the year on 6.1 yards per attempt. Philadelphia's defensive front is stout but can be beaten by nimble quarterbacks. Sam Howell, for example, put up a season-high 40 rush yards in Week 3, and I'd be surprised if Mahomes doesn't look to escape the pocket quickly to avoid pressure.
When he's needed to make a play, Mahomes looks to scramble. I think he gets at least 30 rushing yards tonight.
AJ Brown LESS 79.5 Receiving Yards
Brown averages over 111 yards per game, so holding him to less than 79.5 is a tall task. However, L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie are up for the job.
Of every opposing top receiver the Chiefs faced, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only one to finish with more than 70 yards and that was way back in Week 1. That includes holding Tyreek Hill to 62 yards in Week 9 as well. Given Sneed and McDuffie's strong play, it'd almost be a surprise if Brown had a huge game.
Despite a massive stretch of games in which he had 125+ receiving yards in six straight, Brown was held under 80 yards in his other three. He either explodes or puts up pedestrian numbers.
The latter is more likely in this matchup.
Travis Kelce MORE 7.5 Receptions
It's time for a bounce-back game from Kelce. In the four weeks prior to getting blanketed by the Dolphins, Kelce averaged over nine catches on just under 11 targets per game.
He's Mahomes' safety valve and the Eagles' pressure should force Mahomes to look Kelce's way often. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles' zone coverage defense ranks in the bottom 10 leaguewide in opponent explosive play and first-down rate.
We've seen Kelce exploit zone defenses all season and he's the most likely Chiefs' receiving target to post big numbers.
In perhaps the final game Travis will ever face his brother Jason, he should get the ball often as the Chiefs try to control the clock and maintain possession.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.