Tier 3: The Boom or Bust Wide Receivers
These four wide receivers are all guys who I acknowledge have first-round upside. However, I also feel like all four of them have red flags or concerns that prevent me from wanting the Chiefs to use a first-round pick on them. If any of them fell fall enough for the Chiefs to draft them in the second half of the second round, I would be all for it, but I don't expect that to happen.
7. Xavier Legette - South Carolina - 6'1" - 221 pounds
Xavier Legette is my favorite of the "red flag" guys. History says that his extremely late breakout age makes him unlikely to carry his success over to the NFL. His personal story comes with some justifications for that late breakout, but it's still a major red flag. Still, his tape is amazing. He's so physically dominant and can also run away from defensive backs. It wouldn't take me long to get on board if the Chiefs reached for him at pick 32, but it would still be a huge gamble.
8. Xavier Worthy - Texas - 5'11" - 165 pounds
Xavier Worthy seems like exactly the kind of toy that Andy Reid would like to play with. He's insanely fast and his change of direction skills are very good too, which gives him the ability to create separation in ways that straight-line runners like Thomas and Legette can't. The problem is that Worthy is small and doesn't handle contact well. If Worthy can't adjust to the more physical NFL game it could limit him to more of a gadget-type player that gets a limited amount of touches per game.
9. Keon Coleman - Florida State - 6'3" - 213 pounds
Keon Coleman has the size, strength, and hands to be a fantastic jump ball winner and red zone target in the NFL. The problem is that Coleman doesn't separate on routes well at all. I think that makes Coleman a questionable fit for the Chiefs. Traditionally, Mahomes doesn't throw many jump balls. He prefers to scramble around and look for someone open over throwing a 50/50 ball to a covered receiver. Maybe that would change if the Chiefs drafted Coleman, but I don't want to risk a first-round pick to try and find out.
10. Adonai Mitchell - Texas - 6'2" - 205 pounds
Adonai Mitchell is a prospect about whom my opinion differs from a lot of experts (and a lot of Chiefs fans). I'll acknowledge that Mitchell's ceiling is probably the fourth highest in this draft class behind the top three guys, but I would argue that the risk of being a bust is also one of the highest out of the guys in the top ten.
If you watch Mitchell's highlights, he looks like a slam dunk pick. He's big, he's fast, he moves well, and he has great hands—when he feels like it. You can't ignore the fact that Mitchell has one of the worst yards per route metrics in this entire draft class. His highlights are fantastic, but his down-to-down production and effort are not.
I feel like the people advocating for Mitchell in the first round are doing so based entirely on what he's shown the potential to be, not the player he consistently is. If you watch entire games of Mitchell (not just his targets) you'll see play after play where he just goes through the motions. If he's not the primary read on a play, he's saving it for when he is. I just don't think that will fly in the NFL. Andy Reid doesn't typically like playing any rookie wideouts. He prefers less talented, but more reliable options. So are we even sure Mitchell could get on the field if he isn't giving full effort every play (including blocking on run plays)?
How often has Patrick Mahomes extended plays after his first couple of reads weren't open? Do you think it will fly if he extends the play only to see that Mitchell wasn't going all out because he wasn't the first read on that play? Maybe the Chiefs could get better consistency out of Mitchell. I'd be willing to risk that they could in the second round, but the first round is too much of a gamble for me.
The next tier of players are the guys that I would love to see the Chiefs land in the second round if they don't take a wide receiver in the first.