Kansas City Chiefs 2023 season betting preview: Super Bowl odds, win total prediction, prop bets and more
By Peter Dewey
There may not be a team in the NFL with higher expectations than the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 season as they look to defend their Super Bowl title.
Kansas City has made the AFC Championship Game in five straight seasons since Patrick Mahomes took over as the team’s starting quarterback, winning two Super Bowls in the process.
Mahomes has a real chance to become the greatest quarterback of all time with the pace that he’s on, and he and the Chiefs are once again the favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2023.
If you’re looking to bet on the Chiefs this season, you’ve come to the right place. The BetSided team has broken down a bet to make in the futures market for every NFL team, but here we are going to discuss everything Chiefs – from win total picks to playoff odds to a season-long prop bet.
Oddsmakers expect big things out of Kansas City (why wouldn’t they?), so let’s break down how we can bet on it:
Kansas City Chiefs key offseason additions
- Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor
- Edge Charles Omenihu
- Offensive tackle Donovan Smith
- Linebacker Drue Tranquill
- Running back Jerick McKinnon (re-signed)
- Wide receiver Richie James
The Chiefs added to their pass rush in the draft as well, taking edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round. Taylor and Smith will help the team replace the loss of tackle Orlando Brown, who signed with the Cincinnati Bengals.
After winning the Super Bowl, it was expected Kansas City would lose a few impact players, but the team did a good job replacing them in free agency.
Kansas City Chiefs key offseason losses
- Offensive tackle Orlando Brown
- Safety Juan Thornhill
- Wide receiver Mecole Hardman
- Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Edge Frank Clark
Losing Hardman and Smith-Schuster is certainly a blow to the offense, but Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney will now have bigger roles in this offense. Patrick Mahomes has shown that he can succeed with almost anyone at receiver, so it shouldn’t be too big of a concern for the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 odds
The Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +600, as they look to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since the New England Patriots in the early 2000s.
Kansas City certainly has the talent to do so, and from a betting perspective, there may not be a better team to place a future on.
That gives this team a terrific floor in the futures market, and as long as Mahomes is healthy, it’s hard not to expect the Chiefs to push for another Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs win total prediction for the 2023 season
The Chiefs’ win total is set at 11.5 games in the 2023 season, and that could be a value based on the team’s recent history.
Since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback five seasons ago, the Chiefs have won at least 12 games in every season, including two seasons with 14 wins. With 17 games on the schedule, a 12-5 performance is very doable for Andy Reid’s squad.
The key is the games within the division, as the Chiefs have a legit chance every season to go 6-0 against the rest of the AFC West. Mahomes has only lost three division games in his NFL career.
If he can keep that up in 2023, the OVER is the way to go on this win total bet.
Kansas City Chiefs odds to win the AFC
Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs are favored to win the AFC as well, something they’ve done in three of the last five seasons.
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are the biggest threats to Kansas City, but in a loaded AFC, I don’t think either team really has an edge to the best record in the AFC. The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in five straight seasons, so don’t be shocked if they secure home field against this postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs odds to win the AFC West
The Chiefs are -165 to win the AFC West, an implied probability of 62.26 percent that they’ll win their eighth consecutive division title.
The Los Angeles Chargers are probably the biggest threat to Kansas City in the division, but it’s hard to pass up the Chiefs at a price of less than -200 to win the AFC West. The team has shown year in and year out – especially in the Mahomes era – that it can handle this division.
Mahomes’ record against division opponents is actually wild:
- Denver Broncos: 11-0
- Los Angeles Chargers: 7-2
- Las Vegas Raiders: 9-1
A combined record of 27-3 is insane!
It’s going to be impossible for these teams to win the division if they can’t steal a game from Kansas City. The Chiefs are easily the best bet to win the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs odds to make the playoffs
I wouldn’t recommend betting on these playoff odds since there is zero value with the Chiefs sitting at -500 favorites.
Instead, I much prefer a bet on the team’s win total over or taking it to win the division.
These playoff odds give the Chiefs an implied probability to 83.3 percent to make the postseason. The expectations are sky high for this team once again in 2023.
Best Kansas City Chiefs season-long prop bet
Travis Kelce OVER 1075.5 receiving yards
There’s a discounted line on this prop at FanDuel Sportsbook (see odds tile above), that would make a great bet for any Chiefs fan. DraftKings actually has this Kelce prop 75 yards higher up at 1,150, so taking the FanDuel lean is a legitimate steal from a betting value perspective.
Kelce has been an absolute beast for the Chiefs, especially in the Mahomes era. He has at least 1,125 yards in each of the last five seasons, clearing 1,200 yards in four of the last five. Not only that, but he’s going to see in insane volume as well.
The star tight end has at least 134 targets and 92 catches in each season since Mahomes took over as the team’s starter.
With Smith-Schuster and Hardman leaving this offseason, Kelce may be relied on even more in this offense than before. He’s shown that he’s virtually unguardable in a one-on-one setting, so I don’t see why he doesn’t reach his production from the previous seasons again in 2023.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.