How much can Jared Wiley produce in his rookie campaign for the Chiefs?

There are a handful of new pieces within the Kansas City Chiefs skill room for this season. A few changes at wide receiver will likely grab the most headlines. That is due to the names in which they added, and the shrewd moves it took to bring them in. But also, the Chiefs were so dismal at wide receiver last year that there is just excitement around anything new.

Elsewhere, the tight end position underwent a couple of facelifts as well. Veteran Irv Smith Jr. was brought in during the early portion of free agency, possibly serving as a blocking tight end this season. Then in the NFL Draft, Kansas City selected tight end Jared Wiley out of TCU. Like Travis Kelce, Wiley is a former high school quarterback who offers size as a pass catcher in the middle of the field.

With Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have generally spread the wealth, in terms of pass catching targets. It is always challenging to pinpoint and project receiving production for any Kansas City pass catcher. However, doing so at tight end behind Kelce is even more daunting. But with his attributes, stature, and youth, could Wiley quickly reach TE2-level production as a rookie in the Chiefs offense?

Can Wiley surpass Noah Gray?

Noah Gray has been a solid secondary piece at tight end since entering the league. He can make catches against tight coverage. Gray is able to muscle his way through tackles if given the chance in the open field. Also, Gray has been a steady presence as a blocker as his tenure with the Chiefs has continued to grow.

Does Wiley perhaps have a chance to surpass Gray in receiving production out of the gate? There could very well be chances where each guy receives targets and routes when both guys are on the field. This is due to the success Kansas City has had recently when utilizing multiple tight end sets. But also, Gray has seen a modest year-over-year result as a pass catcher for the Chiefs.

As a rookie, Gray only saw 10 targets and accumulated just 36 receiving yards. In each of the last two years, he has seen his targets hover near 40, hauling in 28 passes in each of 2022 and 2023. The yards per reception numbers are not going to blow anyone away, either. And in some ways, you could argue that Gray is more of a threat when Kansas City is operating in between the 20s, as opposed to say the red zone.

Even as a rookie, the threat of Wiley may be felt more in areas of the field opposite of where Gray could do most of his damage. The vertical aspect of Wiley's game is much more tangible. His size and strength at the catch point were evident in the red zone at TCU. Due to those traits, defenses may have to respect him differently down in the red area, compared to how they treat Gray. With that potential damage down low, Wiley is someone who could become a routine option when the Chiefs need to reach the end zone.

Wiley as a vertical facet

Outside of the red zone, how does Jared Wiley pose a threat on early downs or on third downs? The aforementioned frame of the rookie may give Mahomes more chances to simply lob it up and attempt jump ball opportunities. Those are ways in which Mahomes has already adjusted to throwing down the field for his wide receivers recently in the intermediate areas. Meanwhile, those one-on-one chances that seem to be 50-50, could quickly turn into 70-30 balls for someone of Wiley's makeup. He does not always need ample separation to win routes.

If you look at when the Chiefs are near midfield, Kansas City may view Wiley as a threat on their crossing and isolated concepts. It is not that Gray would be completely incapable of winning here. He causes more damage on out patterns and corner concepts, however. With Jared Wiley, there appears to be a greater array of options, due to the route tree he utilized while in college.

With those options to play with and more added versatility, Wiley has a potential path to delivering more concrete production behind Kelce as a rookie.