2. The remaining schedule
Patrick Mahomes' counterparts in the next four ball games will be Bailey Zappe, Aidan O’Connell, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick. The game against Browning and the Bengals could be a tough matchup given how well defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo plays the Chiefs, but I just cannot envision Mahomes losing to any four of these quarterbacks.
This season he has taken losses to Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, but all of these cats are well below the level of them. I will take a fired-up Mahomes and the Chiefs defense to the bank in those matchups.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have four opponents that currently have a winning record in the Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Dolphins, and the Steelers. The Chiefs will hold the tiebreaker if they win out and the Ravens drop two of those games because Kansas City will be 10-2 in the conference while Baltimore will be 9-3, at best.
So, the one-seed is still not out of the realm of possibility. The only other contender is the Dolphins, who currently sit one game ahead of the Chiefs. If Kansas City wins out, Miami would have to as well, going against the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills. This is due to the Chiefs having the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Another good thing about the remaining schedule is with these quarterbacks, Mahomes and Andy Reid can try to figure things out. With how good the Chiefs' defense has been, I would not expect more than 17 or so points given up to these backup quarterbacks. That should give the offense a good margin for error as they try to right the ship.
With this remaining schedule, I would expect the Chiefs to at least get the two-seed.