The Kansas City Chiefs won yet another AFC West title this season, and now they’ll host a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Miami Dolphins on NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs already beat the Dolphins this season, and Mahomes enters this game with a 10-2 record at home in the playoffs.
That’s a great sign for the Chiefs, who are also favored in a game that’s expected to be played in extremely cold temperatures. The Dolphins as a franchise have struggled in cold weather, but it’s worth noting that Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa covered the spread in their lone cold-weather game last season.
For context, it's worth noting that Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa together are 0-1 SU, but 1-0 ATS in games under 32 degrees in their two years together.
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) January 10, 2024
It was a 32-29 loss in Buffalo on Dec, 17. 2022.
MIA was a 7-point dog with a total of 43.5.
Covered + OVER. https://t.co/QrbFZkW30R
The total in the Chiefs-Dolphins game has been dropping due to the weather, and Kansas City has been one of the better defensive teams in the NFL this season.
Using the latest odds, we’re going to attempt to predict the final score of this game with the Chiefs staring down a chance to advance and defend their title as Super Bowl champions.
Let’s break down the odds and my pick for this game:
Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds, spread and total
Chiefs final score prediction
Patrick Mahomes has thrived as a favorite in the playoffs, and he only has three playoff losses in his NFL career.
Some betting notes ahead of Dolphins vs. Chiefs:
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) January 8, 2024
Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs:
11-3 SU, 9-5-0 ATS | 8-5-0 ATS as a favorite
As a FAV of 3.5 pts or more: 4-3-0 ATS
With temp. of 32 degrees or below: 4-1-0 ATS
Current total of 43.5 would be the lowest of his playoff career. pic.twitter.com/A0N7Pc5YFl
I’ll cut to the chase: Kansas City is going to win this game, the question is by how much.
Why? Well, the Dolphins have all sorts of issues, starting on the defensive side of the football. Miami comes into this game down Bradley Chubb, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jaelan Phillips and Cam Goode on defense. The team is also expected to be without star cornerback Xavien Howard.
That should make things easier on this Kansas City offense – which hasn’t been as sharp this season – on Saturday. Plus, the Dolphins have been brutal when facing a step up in competition, going 1-5 straight up against teams over .500 this season.
I am worried about the weather limiting both offenses, especially since the Chiefs allow just 17.3 points per game – the second best mark in the NFL.
I’ll back Kansas City to win and cover against a Dolphins team that is limping into the playoffs – literally and figuratively.
Final score prediction: Chiefs 20, Dolphins 13
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