It wasn’t perfect on Sunday Night Football, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs escaped with a 23-20 win over the New York Jets.
There are still some problems with the KC offense, and its lack of wide receiver talent may have contributed to Mahomes’ two interceptions. Those problems aren’t anything that Andy Reid can’t solve.
We already saw the philosophy shift last week with the Chiefs offense and that will provide us with some good value on anytime touchdown bets for the Chiefs against the Minnesota Vikings.
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Chiefs vs. Vikings anytime TD picks
- Isiah Pacheco
- Patrick Mahomes
- Justin Watson
Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown scorer
You have to lay a little bit of juice, but I still love this bet.
After last week, there are no questions about who is the No. 1 back in this offense. Pacheco got 20 carries while Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick McKinnon each got three.
The Chiefs are leaning more on their running-game especially from under center, like they did against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.
Pacheco has 14 red zone carries and just one rushing touchdown on a red zone rush. Just ahead of him on that list, Kyren Williams has five red zone rushing touchdowns on 17 carries, and just behind him Brian Robinson Jr. has three on twelve red zone carries.
Positive regression is coming for Pacheco.
Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown scorer
The other change in this offense last week was Mahomes using his legs much more. He ran for 51 yards on seven carries, and all of those were scrambles.
He would have scored on a scramble at the end of the game, but slid to keep the clock running and win it on a kneel. With nobody open downfield, Mahomes is using his athleticism to keep the chains moving and with that many rushes, he’s bound to find the end zone against this terrible Minnesota defense.
Justin Watson anytime touchdown scorer
Watson actually leads the team in receiving yards. He only has eight catches on 13 targets, but is averaging 20.4 yards per reception.
A deep threat like that will see more one-on-ones in this matchup because Brian Flores has been insanely aggressive with his defense this year.
Flores is blitzing on a staggering 57% of snaps which is first in the NFL, and yet the Vikings have only generated a 17.1% pressure rate which is 29th.
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