Chiefs vs Jaguars: Best prop bets for Week 2

After a disappointing Week 1 loss at home to the Detroit Lions, the vibes are getting a much-needed tune-up for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2.

Chris Jones is back in the fold after signing a reworked deal that keeps him in K.C. for the rest of 2023.  Travis Kelce is on the mend as he was back in practice after missing Thursday Night Football with a knee injury. Now, all eyes are focused on Sunday's game at high noon for a rematch of last year's AFC Division Round opponent Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Chiefs are, as of this writing, sitting as 3.5-point favorites on the road after the opening line started at 3 due to the returns of Kelce and Jones. Those two will probably be on a pitch count, but it is still a welcome boost. The Jags, on the other hand, are going in the opposite direction. They defeated a very tame Indianapolis Colts team on the road but did not look good doing it. The Colts held a 21-17 lead with 5:17 to go in the fourth quarter before Jacksonville scored two touchdowns in the span of 1:02 to take home the W. They also lost starting offensive linemen Brandon Scherff and Luke Fortner to lower-body injuries, both of whom are considered day-to-day heading into Sunday.

Now that we are up to speed, let us look at some of the prop bets I will look at for Week 2.

1. Patrick Mahomes over 301.5 Pass Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

As we all saw last week, this offense clearly goes through Travis Kelce. El Travedor is trending towards playing in the Week 2 tilt. Still, you can bet that he will be on a pitch count, considering that doctors had to pull out 45 ccs of blood (!) from his knee dealing with the deep bone bruise he suffered during a practice last week.

In his report, Jay Glazer also mentioned that we were fortunate that Kelce did not suffer a fracture, which could have kept him out all year. So, one can assume Coach Reid will proceed with caution. That does not mean Kelce will be a non-factor, however. Kelce, even at 75 percent, is still going to command all sorts of attention from opposing defenses. That will open up lanes for the wideouts, one of whom will most certainly be looking for some redemption after getting memed so hard that he had to take a break from the internet. 

The other reason this will be such a great bet is that now this group of receivers has had another week of practice to come to terms with the genuine possibility of their surefire Hall of Fame tight end not being on the field. One of the big reasons the receiving corps performed so terribly in Week 1 was that they only had one day to prepare without Kelce, which led to huge problems with spacing and route running.

Coach Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will prepare game plans for their receivers to perform without Kelce, so they will be much more prepared for what the Jags will throw at them. Jacksonville's defense isn't exactly menacing either, as they finished sixth-worst in the league last year in passing yards allowed and let Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson throw for 223 yards in his first NFL game. Bet the over, and don't call it a comeback.

2. Kadarius Toney Anytime TD (+250 at FanDuel)

Speaking of comebacks, Kadarius Toney could use one more than anyone else on the Chiefs roster. Toney just completed his worst game as a Chief, with three drops in three of the most inopportune times you could imagine. One went right into a defender's hands for a pick-six, another was a drop on third down on the opponent's side of the field, and the third was to move the Chiefs into field goal range for a potential game-winning kick. I am sure there has been a Chiefs WR with a worse game in their history, but I cannot think of one right now. 

I am not betting on Toney to score DESPITE everything I just mentioned. I am betting on him to score BECAUSE of it. Both Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have proven their tendency to get a teammate right back on the horse after he had a rough play or two in a game. Toney had a rough game, so I would not be shocked if there was a plan to get him involved early and often to build his confidence.

When Toney is on, he is the most electrifying player on the Chiefs' roster not named Mahomes. The way to get a streaky wide receiver back into the right headspace is to hit him with straightforward, low-stress timing routes early in the game. Think of it like a basketball player needing to knock down a free throw to watch the ball go through the hoop. If Toney can hit a couple of free throws early in the game, he will score and more than double your money. 

3. Calvin Ridley Over 67.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)

What would a betting article be without mentioning the supremely talented Jacksonville receiver, Calvin Ridley? In all seriousness, Ridley had a helluva welcome home party during his first game back from his year-long suspension. He racked up 101 yards and a touchdown on 8 catches and looked like a man who hadn't lost a step. Ridley also has built quite a rapport with quarterback Trevor Lawrence as Lawrence peppered him with targets during the entire game against the Colts.

Before Ridley was suspended, he was considered one of the best young wide receivers in the game. In his first three years in the NFL, Ridley averaged over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns a season. His best year came in 2020 when he had 90 catches for 1,374 yards and was named an All-Pro. He went into the 2021 season with massive hype, but injuries, both mental and physical, put that dream on pause.

Getting hit with a year-long suspension in 2022 certainly did not help. But now, Calvin Ridley is back and looks every bit the receiver that set the league on fire. Take the over.