Chiefs vs. Bills prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL divisional round
For the third time in the past four season, the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. This time, the game will take place in Buffalo as the Chiefs try to avenge their regular season loss.
In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this Divisional Round showdown, including the odds and my best bet.
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Chiefs vs. Bills odds, spread, and total
Chiefs vs. Bills betting trends
- The UNDER is 5-1 in the Chiefs' last six games
- Chiefs are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in January
- Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
- The UNDER is 13-7 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams
- Bills are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home games
Chiefs vs. Bills injury report
Kansas City Chiefs injury report
- Kadarius Toney - WR - Questionable
- Justyn Ross - WR - Questionable
- Wanya Morris - OT - Questionable
- Cam Jones - LB - Questionable
- Derrick Nnadi - DT - Questionable
Buffalo Bills injury report
- Sam Martin - P - Questionable
- Gabe Davis - WR - Questionable
- Taylor Rapp - S - Questionable
- Terrel Bernard - LB - Questionable
- Taron Johnson - CB - Questionable
Chiefs vs. Bills how to watch
- Date: Sunday, January 21
- Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Kansas City Chiefs Record: 11-6
- Buffalo Bills Record: 11-6
Chiefs vs. Bills key players to watch
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice: The Chiefs have found their clear No. 1 receiver in Rashee Rice. He showed up in a big way in the Wild Card Round against the Dolphins, hauling in eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. If he can continue to be their main target at wideout, they're going to be tough to beat these playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen: It's time for Josh Allen to make a statement. He and the Bills haven't had much playoff success since he took over at quarterback and this may be the last chance they have before there's significant roster turnover. It's now or never for Allen.
Chiefs vs. Bills prediction and pick
I refuse to fall for the trap of betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, especially in the playoffs. The Chiefs outranked the Bills in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.8, and also had the fifth best road Net Yards per Play at +0.5.
We can even look at their Week 14 loss to the Bills and despite losing the game, 20-17, the Chiefs outgained them 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play. Josh Allen struggled in that game, completing just 23-of-42 passes for 4.6 yards per throw. That's because of the Chiefs secondary, which is one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 5.4 yards per throw this season while ranking third in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate.
The key for the Bills winning this game is to run the football early and often. Based on their gameplan against them earlier this season, I'm not confident they'll do that.
Then there's the immeasurables. The Chiefs have been here, albeit not on the road, plenty of times in the past few seasons. Nobody has had more success in high-pressure playoff situations than the Chiefs since Mahomes took over as their quarterback.
You also have to be concerned by the Bills defense, which just allowed the Steelers to gain 324 yards of total offense against them. If they play that poorly against the Chiefs, their season is over.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!