Our Kansas City Chiefs will host the already tail-spinning Chicago Bears for a mid-afternoon showdown at Arrowhead. These two teams are going in opposite directions, with the Chiefs coming off a hard-fought road victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bears, who looked lost in a home loss against the Baker Mayfield-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bears came into the 2023 season with a ton of hype surrounding them, most notably around their second-year quarterback, Justin Fields. However, they are in disarray following two ugly losses and the sudden departure of their defensive coordinator, Alan Williams, which occurred earlier this week.
Historically, this would be the kind of opponent the Chiefs would play down to (see Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts), but I do not believe that will happen this week. Despite the injuries to wide receivers Richie James and Kadarius Toney, the Patrick Mahomes-led offense will be put up points against a beleaguered Bears secondary, which will allow the Chiefs pass rushers to tee off against Justin Fields and that atrocious Bears offensive line.
Keeping that in mind, here are my three best prop bets for Week 3.
Chiefs First Quarter - 3.5 (-130 FanDuel)
It will be fine whether Patrick Mahomes and his offense will get the ball first or not. I fully expect them to score a touchdown on their first possession of the game to impose their will early. The Bears have the second-worst scoring defense in the league after two games, and the two quarterbacks they have faced, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield, are not even in the same universe as Patrick Mahomes. Conversely, the Chiefs have yet to score in the first quarter this year, but that will change. Andy Reid will get to business early with the opening script to put Chicago against the wall from the jump. Those of us who watched the Chiefs during their ugly, UGLY loss to the Indianapolis Colts this same time last year know that they tend to start slow and play down to their competition. That Colts team and this Bears team have a lot in common. Both teams were in disarray with their coaching staff, got off to horrible starts despite lofty off-season projections, and had the Chiefs as heavy favorites in Week Three. There is no way Andy Reid lets his team do the same thing two years in a row. Expect a fast start and take the Chiefs to cover the first quarter.
Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards (+118 FanDuel)
Continuing the theme of the Chiefs offense running amok against the Bears secondary, we will look at an alternate passing yardage marker for Patrick Mahomes. This prop bet is nothing but green flags. Is Mahomes getting plus money for going over 300 yards? Check. Is the Bears secondary allowing the fifth-most passing in the league? Double check. Is that same defense allowing 54.8% third down conversions? Check, check, check.
This matchup against the Bears is the definition of a get-right game for the Chiefs offense that has looked rather lackluster through two games. With Richie James sitting out this week and Kadarius Toney dealing with a bum toe that kept him out of practice, that will open the door for Rashee Rice and maybe even a Justyn Ross sighting or two. Skyy Moore is also coming off his best regular season game as a Chief, and Travis Kelce gets another week to recover from a knee injury that forced him out of Week One and left him limited last weekend. Those storylines will coalesce into Patrick Mahomes lighting up the scoreboard and doubling your money.
Kansas City Defense Anytime Touchdown (+500 FanDuel)
For those degenerates looking to make a big splash, why not throw some down on a Chiefs defensive touchdown to make five times your bet? Justin Fields has been less than stellar this year, and he has a penchant for coughing up the football. Fields has already thrown three interceptions through the first two games and fumbled the ball three times, losing one. He has turned the ball over mainly because his offensive line gives almost no time to throw the ball.
Fields has been sacked ten times and hit or under pressure throughout both games. Things will not improve for him as his starting left tackle, Braxton Jones was placed on injured reserve due to a neck injury. Jones was considered the best tackle of that unit, which is not saying a whole lot, so now the issues will feasibly continue to get worse unless someone can step up off the bench for Chicago.
Offensive lines and quarterback issues for the Bears franchise go back years, so this story has been around for the Chicago faithful. But with the most hype surrounding their team in over a decade seemingly out the door before September is out, they may hope to hear a different tune this time. It does not look like that will happen from where I am sitting, and I am willing to bet that Fields will throw a pick-six or cough one up for a scoop and score. Make a bet, and let's see that longshot payoff.