The NFL Playoff Picture is set and the Kansas City Chiefs know who they'll be hosting in the Wild Card Round.
After their Sunday night loss, the Miami Dolphins have dropped to the No. 6 seed in the AFC and as a result, will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a rematch of their Week 9 meeting in Germany. The Chiefs escaped with a 21-14 win in that showdown.
Despite being the defending Super Bowl champs, oddsmakers are disrespecting the Chiefs ahead of the playoffs.
Chiefs Super Bowl 58 odds
The Kansas City Chiefs are +900 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook, which are the fifth-best odds behind the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Dallas Cowboys.
Based on +900 odds, the Chiefs have an implied probability of 10% of successfully defending their Super Bowl title. If you place a $100 bet on them to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy, you'd win $900 if they're able to achieve the feat.
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 58?
I don't think many people would claim this Chiefs team is as good as what we've seen from them in years past, but I still think they're underrated heading into the playoffs. Just because they aren't as dominant as they have been, doesn't mean they aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Here's where they rank in a few key stats:
- Net Yards per Play: 4th
- Average scoring margin: 6th
- EPA per Play: 11th
- Offensive success rate: 12th
- Opponent EPA per Play: 6th
- Opponent success rate: 4th
- Points per game: 15th
- Opponent points per game: 2nd
A lot of those numbers, especially the offensive numbers, don't jump off the page. The good news is Patrick Mahomes is still your quarterback and he has likely the best defense he's had so far in his career. With a great defense and an elite quarterback, anything is possible in the playoffs.
The bad news for the Chiefs is they lead the league in dropped passes and they have a killer's row of teams they'll need to play to reach the Super Bowl.
With all of that being said, they're certainly undervalued at 9/1 odds. These are the defending champs we're talking about here.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds
The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point favorites to the Dolphins on Saturday night, with the total set at 44. At -180 moneyline odds, Kansas City has a 64.29% chance of winning the game.
Who will the Chiefs play in the divisional round?
If the Chiefs are able to get past the Miami Dolphins, we can make an assumption who they'll play in the Divisional Round.
We know for sure they wouldn't play the No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens, as the best seed the Ravens can play is the No. 4 seed, who are the Houston Texans. The most likely scenario would be the Chiefs heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills in what would almost certainly be another classic playoff showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, especially after how their Week 14 matchup ended.
The only way the Chiefs won't play the Bills is if either the Chiefs lose to the Dolphins or the Bills lose to the Steelers. Buffalo is the biggest favorite in the Wild Card round. The Bills are set as 10-point favorites at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, so it would be a massive upset if Buffalo doesn't advance to the Divisional Round.
If you want to bet on the Chiefs in the playoffs, including to win the Super Bowl, you should place your bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, new users who click the link below to sign up for an account will receive $150 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager!
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!